Prognostic Meteorological Discussion
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FXUS01 KWBC 220719
PMDSPD

SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
319 AM EDT SUN OCT 22 2017

VALID 12Z SUN OCT 22 2017 - 12Z TUE OCT 24 2017

...LARGE STORM SYSTEM TO AFFECT THE EASTERN HALF OF THE NATION...

HEAVY RAIN AND HIGH ELEVATION SNOW WILL BE THE MAIN WEATHER STORY
ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN ROCKIES THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING AS A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS EASTWARD ACROSS THE
REGION.  THIS ATMOSPHERIC RIVER WILL LIKELY RESULT IN SEVERAL
INCHES OF RAINFALL ACROSS PARTS OF WESTERN OREGON AND WASHINGTON,
WITH SOME LOCATIONS GETTING IN EXCESS OF FIVE INCHES AS A STORM
TOTAL BEFORE THE EVENT IS OVER BY SUNDAY NIGHT.  CONDITIONS WILL
IMPROVE MARKEDLY BY MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS A STRONG UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE BUILDS IN, DISPLACING THE ACTIVE STORM TRACK WELL INTO
CANADA.

THE COLD FRONT CURRENTLY TRACKING ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY AND TEXAS WILL CONTINUE TRACKING EASTWARD.  ALTHOUGH THE
WORST OF THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT HAS ENDED, SOME STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF THE DEEP
SOUTH ON SUNDAY.  WITH A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG
THIS FRONT OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY, MOISTURE
INFLOW FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL BE ENHANCED AND THIS COULD
LEAD TO AREAS OF HEAVY RAINFALL FROM MISSISSIPPI TO THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS.

ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE CONTINENTAL U.S., EXPECT MILD TO WARM WEATHER
TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE EAST WITH WIDESPREAD 70S FOR HIGHS THROUGH
MONDAY BEFORE COOLER CONDITIONS ARRIVE BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS PARTS OF CALIFORNIA
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH VERY DRY CONDITIONS AND GUSTY WINDS
EXPECTED.  A BIG HEAT WAVE IS ALSO IN THE FORECAST FOR SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA, WITH WIDESPREAD 90S AND 100S EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY.

D. HAMRICK


GRAPHICS AVAILABLE AT
WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/BASICWX/BASICWX_NDFD.PHP
$$





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