Prognostic Meteorological Discussion
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FXUS01 KWBC 190828
PMDSPD

SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
427 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

VALID 12Z FRI SEP 19 2014 - 12Z SUN SEP 21 2014

...FLASH FLOOD WATCHES REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF TEXAS AND
SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO...

TODAY AND TONIGHT, TROPICAL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS
OF `ODILE` WILL CONTINUE TO PLAGUE TEXAS WITH PERIODS OF HEAVY
RAINFALL. IN FACT, A MODERATE RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL IS IN
EFFECT FOR SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND WEST CENTRAL TEXAS UNTIL
SATURDAY MORNING---AND A SLIGHT RISK EXTENDS INTO NORTH CENTRAL
TEXAS INTO LATE SATURDAY NIGHT. AN ADDITIONAL 1-3 INCHES OF RAIN
WILL BE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE EXCESSIVE RAINFALL AREA. PLEASE REFER
TO THE WPC QPFERD DISCUSSION FOR MORE DETAILS.

DOWNSTREAM OVER THE NORTHERN GULF COAST AND FLORIDA PENINSULA, A
STATIONARY FRONT WILL SERVE AS THE FOCAL POINT FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS FRONT WILL
SLOWLY DRIFT SOUTHWARD INTO THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO AND THROUGH
SOUTH FLORIDA. BY SATURDAY, A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
LIKELY FORM ON THE ATLANTIC SIDE OF THE STATIONARY BOUNDARY AND
SLOWLY DRIFT NORTHWARD ALONG THE GULF STREAM AND BRING THE THREAT
OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED HEAVY RAINS TO THE COAST OF THE CAROLINAS
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING.

IN THE WEST, A MID-LEVEL TROUGH WILL MIGRATE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS AND ITS COLD FRONT WILL WEAKEN AS IT REACHES THE GREAT
LAKES AND SOUTHERN HALF OF THE MISSOURI VALLEY. HOWEVER, A
SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTHEASTWARD OUT OF CENTRAL
CANADA. BY SATURDAY NIGHT, THIS SECONDARY COLD FRONT AND A PACIFIC
SURFACE RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS AND
OVERTAKE THE LEAD BOUNDARY---SENDING THE COLD FRONT SURGING INTO
THE OHIO VALLEY AND CENTRAL PLAINS-MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY
SUNDAY MORNING. THE PACIFIC SURFACE RIDGE WILL PRODUCE AN WARM,
OFFSHORE FLOW FOR THE WEST COAST AND INTRODUCE THE THERMAL TROUGH
TO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST OVER THE WEEKEND. SCATTERED SHOWERS,
LIGHT RAIN AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL ACCOMPANY THE SECONDARY
FRONT---AS IT PROGRESSES DOWNSTREAM ON SATURDAY---FROM SOUTH
CENTRAL KANSAS TO LOWER MICHIGAN. BY SUNDAY MORNING, PRECIPITATION
WILL BE MOVING NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE FRONT FROM THE LOWER OHIO
VALLEY TO THE NORTHERN APPALACHIANS.

VOJTESAK

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV
$$





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