Prognostic Meteorological Discussion
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000
FXUS01 KWBC 162001
PMDSPD

SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
359 PM EDT WED AUG 16 2017

VALID 00Z THU AUG 17 2017 - 00Z SAT AUG 19 2017

...A STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
EASTERN U.S....

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CURRENTLY DEVELOPING OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS
IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY AS IT HEADS NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE GREAT
LAKES BY THURSDAY NIGHT.  SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
FOCUSED NEAR AND JUST AHEAD OF THE ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEMS.
THE BEST DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH THE STORM ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE
EASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT, AND
ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AHEAD OF THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER THROUGH
TONIGHT.  SOME OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO REACH SEVERE
LEVELS WITH HEAVY DOWNPOURS, WHICH COULD LEAD TO THE POSSIBILITY
OF FLASH FLOODING THROUGH NIGHT.  THE BULK OF THE RAIN SHOULD MOVE
INTO CANADA ON THURSDAY AS THE STORM CENTER MOVES INTO ONTARIO.
HOWEVER, SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE TRAILING
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE OHIO VALLEY BEFORE REACHING THE
APPALACHIANS ON THURSDAY.  FARTHER EAST, RETURN FLOW FROM THE
SOUTH WILL BRING TROPICAL MOISTURE NORTHWARD INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC
REGION ON FRIDAY.  THE POSSIBILITY OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITH
HEAVY RAIN WILL BE FURTHER INCREASED AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE ENTIRE MID-ATLANTIC.
MEANWHILE, SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL SPREAD NORTHEASTWARD
INTO NEW ENGLAND DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY.

BEHIND THIS STORM, COOLER AND DRIER WILL FILTER INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS ON THURSDAY, REACHING THE MIDWEST AND OHIO VALLEY ON
FRIDAY.  A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL HELP TRIGGER SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY WHERE SOME LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE POSSIBLE.

OUT WEST, SOME SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED FROM THE
GREAT BASIN EASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AS A WEAK
UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS.  OTHERWISE, MUCH OF THE REST
OF THE WESTERN U.S. SHOULD REMAIN RAIN-FREE THROUGH FRIDAY WITH
TEMPERATURES 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
AND NORTHERN ROCKIES.

KONG


GRAPHICS AVAILABLE AT
WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/BASICWX/BASICWX_NDFD.PHP
$$





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