Prognostic Meteorological Discussion
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FXUS01 KWBC 282004
PMDSPD

SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
403 PM EDT THU APR 28 2016

VALID 00Z FRI APR 29 2016 - 00Z SUN MAY 01 2016

...THERE ARE SLIGHT RISKS OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN MID-ATLANTIC...

...HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS,
LOWER/MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND WESTERN TENNESSEE VALLEY...

...SNOW OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE GENERATING ALONG AND AHEAD OF A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE MISSISSIPPI, OHIO AND TENNESSEE
VALLEYS THIS AFTERNOON. SOME OF THE STORMS TRACKING THROUGH THE
MID-ATLANTIC REGION COULD POTENTIALLY TURN SEVERE. THE STORM
PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A SLIGHT RISK FOR PORTIONS OF WEST
VIRGINIA, VIRGINIA AND NORTH CAROLINA. SEVERAL STORMS HAS
DEVELOPED ALONG THE CENTRAL GULF COAST AND ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST;
HOWEVER THE THREAT FOR TURNING SEVERE IS MARGINAL. THE SYSTEM WILL
CONTINUE TO ADVANCE EASTWARD THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE ALONG THE APPALACHIANS THROUGH
FRIDAY EVENING WITH MOST COASTAL AREAS HAVING CLEARED OUT.

HEAVY RAIN AND FLASH FLOODING IS ALSO A CONCERN WITH SOME OF THE
STORMS THAT ARE TRACKING THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC. EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL OUTLOOKS HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN
KENTUCKY, MOST OF WEST VIRGINIA AND NORTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA. THE
THREAT IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN OR DIMINISH BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.

A SECOND STORM WILL PUSH THROUGH THE FOUR CORNERS REGION THIS
EVENING AND CROSS THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES ON FRIDAY. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST, GREAT BASIN AND PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL
ROCKIES TODAY. RAIN AND HIGHER ELEVATION SNOW ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE WEST AND GREAT PLAINS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND. SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 2 FEET MAY BE POSSIBLE FOR THE HIGHEST
ELEVATIONS OF THE COLORADO ROCKIES BY SUNDAY EVENING.
SNOW WILL DECREASE INTENSITY THROUGH THE DAY ON SATURDAY AS THE
SYSTEM PUSHES FURTHER INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.

STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ACROSS PORTIONS
OF OKLAHOMA, TEXAS, WESTERN ARKANSAS AND NORTHERN LOUISIANA ON
FRIDAY. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A SLIGHT RISK FOR
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
HEAVY RAINFALL WILL LIKELY ACCOMPANY THE CONVECTION ON FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY THEREFORE AN EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OUTLOOK HAS BEEN ISSUED
FOR NEARLY THE SAME REGION. THE AREA OF INCREASED RISK WILL SHIFT
TO THE EAST ON SATURDAY, SPANNING FROM THE WESTERN GULF COAST TO
THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.

IN ADDITION BY FRIDAY MORNING, A THIRD SYSTEM WILL MOVE ONSHORE
OVER PACIFIC NORTHWEST MOVING TO PARTS OF THE GREAT BASIN/CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA BY FRIDAY EVENING.  RAIN WILL BEGIN OVER PARTS OF THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST ON FRIDAY MORNING THAT WILL EXTEND FROM THE
NORTHWEST TO PARTS OF THE ROCKIES AND THE SOUTHWEST BY FRIDAY
EVENING.

CAMPBELL


GRAPHICS AVAILABLE AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV
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