Prognostic Meteorological Discussion
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000
FXUS01 KWBC 240650
PMDSPD

SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
249 AM EDT SAT SEP 24 2016

VALID 12Z SAT SEP 24 2016 - 12Z MON SEP 26 2016

...STRONG STORM SYSTEM AFFECTS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER
MIDWEST...

...HIGH QUALITY AIRMASS FOR THE EASTERN U.S. THIS WEEKEND...

...HEAVY RAINFALL EXPECTED ACROSS TEXAS...

A STRONG SURFACE LOW CROSSING THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON SATURDAY WILL
RESULT IN UNSETTLED WEATHER FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES TO THE
DAKOTAS.  ACCUMULATING SNOW IS EXPECTED FOR THE HIGHER MOUNTAIN
RANGES FROM NORTHERN UTAH TO MONTANA THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL IS LIKELY FROM EASTERN WYOMING TO
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA AS THE SURFACE LOW LIFTS SLOWLY TO THE
NORTHEAST.  BREEZY CONDITIONS CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED.  MUCH COOLER
TEMPERATURES WILL FOLLOW BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THAT PUSHES
EASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS.

REFRESHING CHANGES IN THE WEATHER PATTERN ARE ALSO IN THE FORECAST
FOR MUCH OF THE EASTERN U.S. THIS WEEKEND.  A LARGE SURFACE HIGH
OVER SOUTHEAST CANADA WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY AND MID-ATLANTIC REGION BY SATURDAY, BRINGING COOLER AND
MUCH DRIER CONDITIONS WITH A FALL-LIKE FEELING IN THE AIR.
HOWEVER, THIS FRONT IS NOT EXPECTED TO REACH THE DEEP SOUTH AND
GULF COAST REGION, WHERE THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THE SHORT RANGE PERIOD.

FOR THE STATE OF TEXAS, A HEAVY RAINFALL EVENT IS FORECAST TO
MATERIALIZE ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE BY
SUNDAY AS A SLOW MOVING FRONT INTERCEPTS A RICH FLOW OF MOISTURE
SURGING NORTH FROM THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO.  AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
TO THE WEST WILL HELP PROVIDE LIFT IN ADDITION TO THE FRONT TO
GENERATE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL.  SEVERAL INCHES OF RAIN WILL BE
POSSIBLE FOR SOME AREAS.

D. HAMRICK


GRAPHICS AVAILABLE AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/BASICWX/BASICWX_WBG.PHP
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