Prognostic Meteorological Discussion
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FXUS01 KWBC 270733
PMDSPD

SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
333 AM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

VALID 12Z WED AUG 27 2014 - 12Z FRI AUG 29 2014

...THE FLASH FLOOD THREAT CONTINUES FOR PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL
PLAINS THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING, AND MOVES INTO THE MIDWESTERN
STATES BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON...

...A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS POSSIBLE FOR PARTS OF
NEBRASKA AND KANSAS ON WEDNESDAY...


TROPICAL MOISTURE LIFTING INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION OF THE
COUNTRY WILL INTERACT WITH AN AREA OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY ADVANCING
EASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. THIS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
TO PRODUCE AN EXPANSIVE AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ROCKIES TO THE MIDWEST ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
THE HEAVIEST AND MOST ORGANIZED OF THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TO RIDE ALONG A NEARLY STATIONARY SURFACE BOUNDARY
STRETCHED ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
FOR WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY, WPC HAS HIGHLIGHTED A SLIGHT RISK FOR
FLASH FLOODING ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEBRASKA INTO
WESTERN IOWA. IN ADDITION, SPC HAS ALSO HIGHLIGHTED A SLIGHT RISK
FOR SEVERE WEATHER FOR SOUTHERN NEBRASKA AND NORTHWEST KANSAS. AS
THE ENERGY ALOFT EJECTS INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON THURSDAY, AND
THE SURFACE FRONT LIFTS SLOWLY NORTHWARD, THE HEAVY RAIN AND FLASH
FLOOD THREAT WILL MOVE INTO THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND
PORTIONS OF THE UPPER MIDWEST.

MEANWHILE, THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE THIS BOUNDARY WILL MOVE EAST
AND SOUTHWARD AS A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE NORTHEAST, MID-ATLANTIC,
AND OHIO VALLEY ON WEDNESDAY. THIS SHOULD PRODUCE SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS ALONG THE FRONT, BUT GIVEN THE LACK OF UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT, THE ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY LIGHT AND MAINLY
DRIVEN BY DIURNAL HEATING. DOWN SOUTH, WEAK ENERGY MOVING WESTWARD
INTO COASTAL TEXAS WILL BRING SHOWERS AND STORMS TO PORTIONS OF
THE WESTERN GULF COAST REGION THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.
WHILE THE HEAVIEST OF THE RAIN IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OFFSHORE, A
FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY MAKE IT ONSHORE
TO COASTAL REGIONS OF TEXAS AND LOUISIANA.


MONARSKI


GRAPHICS AVAILABLE AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV
$$





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