Prognostic Meteorological Discussion
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FXUS01 KWBC 290833
PMDSPD

SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
432 AM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

VALID 12Z WED JUL 29 2015 - 12Z FRI JUL 31 2015

...HOT AND HUMID WEATHER TO CONTINUE OVER AREAS OF THE SOUTHERN
U.S.

...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE OVER AREAS OF NEW MEXICO AND THE
TEXAS/OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING...

...ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE WESTERN U.S...


THE UPPER PATTERN ACROSS THE COUNTRY WILL FEATURE A BROAD RIDGE
EXTENDING FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TOWARD THE DEEP SOUTH. TO THE
NORTH, A HIGH AMPLITUDE AND PROGRESSIVE JET STRUCTURE WILL HELP
CARVE A TROUGH OVER EASTERN CANADA TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK.
MEANWHILE, RIDGING WILL BEGIN TO EXTEND OVER A VAST MAJORITY OF
THE WESTERN STATES SUPPORTING ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

UNDERNEATH THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN SECTOR OF
THE U.S., HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE. LOCAL FORECAST
OFFICES HAVE PLACED AN EXPANSIVE REGION FROM EASTERN OKLAHOMA
ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND INTO THE MID/DEEP SOUTH IN
HEAT ADVISORIES AND EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNINGS. EXPECT HEAT INDICES
TO LOCALLY EXCEED 105 DEGREES IN SOME OF THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED
AREAS.

TO THE WEST OF THIS RIDGE, A SERIES OF MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL
TRACK THROUGH THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND FOUR CORNERS REGION. THESE
FEATURES COMBINED WITH SUFFICIENT MOISTURE AND DIURNAL HEATING
WILL SUPPORT A BROAD AREA OF CONVECTION. IN PARTICULAR, A MORE
FOCUSED AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS MOVING THROUGH NORTHEASTERN NEW
MEXICO THIS EVENING MAY CAUSE RAINFALL HEAVY ENOUGH TO PRODUCE
FLASH FLOODING. THIS THREAT WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EASTWARD TOWARD
THE TEXAS/OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

THE OTHER REGION OF ACTIVE WEATHER WILL BE ALONG AND AHEAD OF A
RATHER PRONOUNCED COLD FRONT CURRENTLY SWEEPING THROUGH THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES. WHILE THE BOUNDARY SHOULD WEAKEN IN TIME AS THE
BETTER UPPER SUPPORT LIFTS INTO CANADA, EXPECT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO ACCOMPANY FRONTAL PASSAGE. IT APPEARS THIS WILL
OCCUR BY AROUND THURSDAY EVENING ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR. OVERALL,
THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL LOOKS TO BE ALONG THE EASTERN GULF COAST
WHERE A MID-LEVEL IMPULSE IS EXPECTED TO SINK SOUTHWARD FROM THE
LOWER TENNESSEE VALLEY TOWARD THE GULF COAST. WPC IS CURRENTLY
HIGHLIGHTING A BROAD AREA OF 1 TO 2 INCHES OF PRECIPITATION OVER
THIS AREA THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.

ELSEWHERE, A BUILDING RIDGE ALONG THE WEST COAST WILL MAINTAIN HOT
CONDITIONS THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY. TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES OF 10 TO
15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WILL SUPPORT HIGHS REACHING THE CENTURY
MARK. IN FACT, TEMPERATURES SHOULD HIT THE 105 TO 110 DEGREE RANGE
OVER THE INTERIOR VALLEY LOCALES OF CALIFORNIA AND OREGON ON
THURSDAY.


RUBIN-OSTER

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV
$$




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