Prognostic Meteorological Discussion
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FXUS01 KWBC 180830
PMDSPD

SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
430 AM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

VALID 12Z FRI APR 18 2014 - 12Z SUN APR 20 2014

...HEAVY RAINFALL IS LIKELY ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. THROUGH
SATURDAY...

...A POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER EXISTS ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA ON
FRIDAY...


THE UPPER PATTERN BEING FEATURED ACROSS THE COUNTRY WILL CONSIST
OF A SPLIT FLOW WITH BOTH THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAMS BEING
FAIRLY ACTIVE. THE MAJOR SYSTEM TO IMPACT THE UNITED STATES THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WILL BE AN UPPER TROF AMPLIFYING ACROSS THE
EASTERN GULF COAST. AMPLE MOISTURE IS FORECAST TO SURGE NORTHWARD
AHEAD OF THE DEVELOPING SYSTEM WHICH WILL SET THE STAGES FOR HEAVY
RAINFALL ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. THE WPC PRECIPITATION
FORECAST SUGGESTS AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES OF RAIN ACROSS SOUTHERN
GEORGIA ALONG WITH THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.
HEAVIER CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS MAY LEAD TO REGIONS OF FLASH FLOODING
GIVEN SUCH HIGH RAINFALL RATES AND SLOW MOTIONS. ADDITIONALLY, THE
STORM PREDICTION CENTER IS ADVERTISING A THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER
ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA ON FRIDAY WHERE SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY AND
FAVORABLE TURNING OF THE WINDS WITH HEIGHT WILL BE PRESENT. THE
SLOW MOVING NATURE OF THE UPPER LOW WILL MAINTAIN A CHANCE OF RAIN
THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY, PARTICULARLY FOR THE COASTAL LOCATIONS
ACROSS GEORGIA AND THE CAROLINAS.

THE OTHER SYSTEM WITHIN THE SOUTHERN STREAM WILL BE LESS
PRONOUNCED THAN ITS COUNTERPART FURTHER DOWNSTREAM BUT WILL STILL
AFFECT THE FOUR CORNERS REGION AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS. BROAD
ASCENT AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROF COMBINED WITH MOISTURE RETURNING
FROM THE WESTERN GULF SHOULD KEEP UNSETTLED CONDITIONS IN THE
FORECAST. TERRAIN IS EXPECTED TO PLAY A ROLE IN PLACING LOCALIZED
HIGHER AMOUNTS. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS ACROSS
THE SAN JUANS, THIS WILL BE AN ALL LIQUID PRECIPITATION EVENT.

LOOKING TO THE NORTHERN BRANCH OF THE JET, IT WILL ALSO BE RATHER
ACTIVE AS A TRAIN OF SYSTEMS SLIDE EASTWARD. A PACIFIC SYSTEM
CURRENTLY MIGRATING INTO THE UPPER INTERMOUNTAIN WEST WILL
CONTINUE TRACKING DUE EAST REACHING THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS BY
LATE FRIDAY NIGHT. IT APPEARS MUCH OF WINTRY ASPECTS OF THIS
DEVELOPING SYSTEM SHOULD BE CONFINED TO NORTH OF THE INTERNATIONAL
BORDER WITH CANADA. BY SATURDAY SOME OF THE WINTRY MIX CONSISTING
OF FREEZING RAIN MAY IMPACT NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF MINNESOTA.
OTHERWISE, EXPECT RAIN TO DOMINATE WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES TO
PREVAIL IN THE 50S AND 60S THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

CONDITIONS ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN SECTION OF THE COUNTRY SHOULD
BE RATHER QUIET AS A SURFACE RIDGE REMAINS CENTERED OVER THE
REGION. WITH THE SYSTEM DEVELOPING ACROSS NORTHEASTERN GULF,
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WEDGED EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS WILL PROVIDE
COOL CONDITIONS WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S ON FRIDAY BEFORE REBOUNDING
INTO THE 60S BY EARLY IN THE WEEKEND.


RUBIN-OSTER


GRAPHICS AVAILABLE AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV
$$





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