Prognostic Meteorological Discussion
Issued by NWS

Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4
000
FXUS01 KWBC 261959
PMDSPD

SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
358 PM EDT SUN MAR 26 2017

VALID 00Z MON MAR 27 2017 - 00Z WED MAR 29 2017

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...

...HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE OVER PARTS OF THE TENNESSEE VALLEY...

...RAIN/FREEZING RAIN POSSIBLE OVER PARTS OF THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
AND THE NORTHEAST...

A COMPLEX SYSTEM WILL IMPACT MUCH OF THE CENTRAL/LOWER PLAINS AND
EASTERN U.S. OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. TWO MAIN LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEMS WILL BE IN PLAY: ONE WHICH WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES ACROSS
THE UPPER  GREAT LAKES TONIGHT AND INTO SOUTHEAST CANADA MONDAY,
AND A SECOND WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS TONIGHT, AND INTO THE MID/LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
MONDAY. THIS SECOND SYSTEM WILL EVENTUALLY TRAVERSE THE OHIO
VALLEY MONDAY NIGHT, BEFORE REACHING THE ATLANTIC COAST BY
TUESDAY. A SERIES OF FRONTAL BOUNDARIES WILL CONNECT THESE TWO
CENTERS, AND WILL BE THE EPICENTER FOR PRECIPITATION AND
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY.

IN THE NORTHEAST U.S., PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE COLD SECTOR,
FALLING AS A FREEZING RAIN OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. FREEZING
RAIN ADVISORIES AND WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT FROM
FAR EASTERN NEW YORK UPWARDS THROUGH MAINE. ELSEWHERE NEAR THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARIES AND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS, RAIN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED. WIDESPREAD RAIN, HEAVY AT TIMES, WILL
OCCUR FROM THE MID ATLANTIC TO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES IN RELATION
TO THE NORTHERN MOST LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY REGIONS. FOR THE SOUTHERN PLAINS SYSTEM, SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO EXPECTED GENERALLY JUST AHEAD OF THE
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT. HOWEVER, GIVEN THE STRONG NATURE OF THIS
SYSTEM, AND THE STRONG PULL OF WARM AND UNSTABLE AIR FLOWING IN
OFF THE GULF OF MEXICO, COMBINING WITH STRONG LIFT ALONG THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM, INGREDIENTS ARE IN PLACE
TO PRODUCE STRONG TO SEVERE CONVECTION. THE STORM PREDICTION
CENTER HAS OUTLINED A PORTION OF SOUTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA AND A
SMALL PORTION OF NORTHEAST TEXAS AS BEING IN AN ENHANCED RISK FOR
SEVERE WEATHER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT, WITH AN ENHANCED AND
SLIGHT RISK EXPANDING FARTHER TO ENCOMPASS MUCH OF OKLAHOMA,
PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST TEXAS, AND FAR EASTERN OKLAHOMA. HIGH WINDS,
LARGE HAIL, AND TORNADOES ARE ALL POSSIBLE HAZARDS AS STORMS
DEVELOP. PLEASE REFER TO THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER`S WEB PAGE
FOR MORE INFORMATION: WWW.CPS.NCEP.NOAA.GOV.

OVER THE WEST COAST, A FRONT WILL MOVE ONSHORE BY SUNDAY EVENING
CONTINUING TO MOVE EASTWARD TO THE ROCKIES BY MONDAY EVENING.  THE
STORM WILL BEGIN TO PRODUCE RAIN AND HIGHER ELEVATION SNOW OVER
PARTS OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST/NORTHERN CALIFORNIA THAT WILL
EXPAND INLAND TO PARTS OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES BY SUNDAY EVENING.
THE RAIN AND HIGHER ELEVATION SNOW WILL MOVE INTO PARTS OF THE
GREAT BASIN ON MONDAY AND INTO PARTS OF THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES/SOUTHWEST ON MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY EVENING.  BEHIND
THE SYSTEM, ONSHORE FLOW WILL AID IN PRODUCING COASTAL RAIN AND
HIGHER ELEVATION SNOW OVER PARTS OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST/NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA ON MONDAY INTO MONDAY EVENING.


WIX/ZIEGENFELDER


GRAPHICS AVAILABLE AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/BASICWX/BASICWX_WBG.PHP
$$





USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.