Prognostic Meteorological Discussion
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FXUS01 KWBC 280711
PMDSPD

SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
310 AM EDT SUN AUG 28 2016

VALID 12Z SUN AUG 28 2016 - 12Z TUE AUG 30 2016

...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS
AND MIDWEST...

...HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST FROM TEXAS TO THE
MID-ATLANTIC REGION...

...WEST COAST STATES WILL CONTINUE TO BE WARM AND DRY...

A CHANGE IN THE WEATHER PATTERN IS COMING TO THE NORTHERN PLAINS
AND UPPER MIDWEST AS A COLD FRONT SINKS SOUTHWARD FROM CANADA.  A
SURGE OF WARM AND HUMID AIR AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL LIKELY LEAD TO
THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND STORMS FROM KANSAS TO MINNESOTA,
WITH ISOLATED AREAS OF HEAVY RAINFALL THAT COULD LEAD TO LOCALIZED
FLOODING ISSUES.  A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE.  COOLER AND MORE PLEASANT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR
THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL U.S.

THE AREA OF THE U.S. WITH THE BEST PROSPECTS FOR HEAVY RAINFALL
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WILL BE THE CENTRAL GULF COAST AND
SOUTHERN FLORIDA.  A DISTURBANCE CROSSING THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS AND
NEAR CUBA IS EXPECTED TO BRING WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS WITH MULTIPLE
ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS, WITH 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAINFALL
LIKELY OVER SOUTH FLORIDA.  A WEAK UPPER LOW OVER THE GULF OF
MEXICO, COMBINED WITH DEEP LAYER MOISTURE ADVECTING NORTHWARD
AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE, WILL LEAD TO WIDESPREAD RAINFALL
NEAR THE COAST, WITH THE HEAVIEST ACTIVITY LIKELY REMAINING JUST
OFFSHORE. AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN SOME AREAS.

LATE-SUMMER HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL PERSIST ACROSS MUCH OF THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS, DEEP SOUTH, AND MID-ATLANTIC REGION THROUGH
MONDAY, WITH WIDESPREAD HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO MID 90S, AND
LOWS IN THE 70S.  THIS IS COURTESY OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND
RELATIVE LACK OF CLOUDINESS AND RAINFALL.  OUT WEST, IT SHOULD
REMAIN DRY AND WARM, WITH NO APPRECIABLE CHANCE OF RAINFALL FROM
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES TO CALIFORNIA, EXCEPT FOR A FEW SHOWERS OVER
NORTHWESTERN WASHINGTON STATE.  SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE
EXPECTED OVER COLORADO AND NEW MEXICO WITH MONSOONAL MOISTURE IN
PLACE OVER THIS REGION.

HAMRICK


GRAPHICS AVAILABLE AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/BASICWX/BASICWX_WBG.PHP
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