Prognostic Meteorological Discussion
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000
FXUS01 KWBC 310900
PMDSPD

SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
500 AM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

VALID 12Z THU JUL 31 2014 - 12Z SAT AUG 02 2014

...HEAVY RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE EASTWARD INTO THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON THURSDAY...

...CONDITIONS WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY WET OVER THE SOUTHEAST AND
MID-ATLANTIC STATES...

...HEAVY RAINS AND FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE OVER THE SOUTHERN
ROCKIES...


AN ORGANIZED AREA OF HEAVY RAINS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
TO DEVELOP TO THE NORTHEAST OF A SURFACE LOW SLOWLY SINKING
THROUGH EAST TEXAS ON THURSDAY.  LOCATIONS SURROUNDING THE
ARK-LA-TEX REGION SHOULD SEE THE HIGHEST RAINFALL TOTALS AND
GREATEST CHANCE FOR ANY FLASH FLOODING.  THE ORGANIZED AREA OF
RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL SLIDE FARTHER SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON FRIDAY...BUT THE THREAT FOR HEAVY
DOWNPOURS AND FLASH FLOODING SHOULD DIMINISH AS THE WAVE WEAKENS
WHILE DROPPING TOWARDS THE LOUISIANA COAST.

A FRONTAL BOUNDARY INITIALLY SHOVED WELL OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST
WILL GRADUALLY EDGE BACK WESTWARD THE NEXT FEW DAYS.  THE INCREASE
IN MOISTURE WITH THE APPROACHING FRONT...COMBINED WITH WEAK ENERGY
ALOFT...SHOULD FUEL AND TRIGGER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST ON THURSDAY.  MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW INTO THE TERRAIN
SHOULD LEAD TO ESPECIALLY HEAVY AMOUNTS ALONG THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS.  RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD SPREAD NORTH ON
FRIDAY...IMPACTING MUCH OF THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES.

ANOMALOUS MOISTURE IN PLACE SHOULD CONTINUE TO FUEL WIDESPREAD
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS MUCH OF THE TERRAIN OF THE
WESTERN U.S. THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.  THE GREATEST CHANCE FOR
ORGANIZED AND HEAVY PRECIPITATION WILL BE ALONG THE SOUTHERN
ROCKIES...AND LOCATIONS ACROSS NEW MEXICO AND INTO SOUTH CENTRAL
COLORADO COULD SEE LOCALIZED AREAS OF FLASH FLOODING.

SUMMER HEAT WILL CONTINUE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
AND INTERMOUNTAIN WEST LATE THIS WEEK.  DAYTIME TEMPERATURES COULD
APPROACH OR REACH TRIPLE DIGITS BENEATH A PERSISTENT UPPER RIDGE
AMPLIFIED OVER THE REGION.

WEAK ENERGY ROTATING AROUND AN UPPER VORTEX SPINNING OVER EASTERN
CANADA SHOULD TRIGGER SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST.


GERHARDT


GRAPHICS AVAILABLE AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV
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