Prognostic Meteorological Discussion
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FXUS01 KWBC 251959
PMDSPD

SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
359 PM EDT THU MAY 25 2017

VALID 00Z FRI MAY 26 2017 - 00Z SUN MAY 28 2017

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF
THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...

...ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND SLIGHT RISK OF FLASH
FLOODING POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY...


A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SWING OUT FROM THE SOUTHEAST INTO
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN THIS EVENING.  THIS WILL PUSH THE COLD FRONT
EVEN FARTHER AWAY FROM THE EAST COAST.  HOWEVER, THE PRIMARY LOW
WILL MOVE OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT AND TRACK NORTHWARD
ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND COASTLINE.  THIS WILL BRING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGHOUT THE NORTHEAST AND NEW ENGLAND ON FRIDAY.
BY FRIDAY NIGHT, THE LOW WILL APPROACH NOVA SCOTIA AND CAUSE
PRECIPITATION TO TAPER OFF THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT.  COOLER
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC TO NEW ENGLAND
TONIGHT AND TOMORROW; BY SATURDAY, TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO
NEAR NORMAL.

AN OCCLUDED FRONT IS SLOWLY MOVING THROUGH THE PLAINS WITH A
STATIONARY FRONT THAT IS STRETCHING BACK INTO THE CENTRAL BASIN.
THIS FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST BY EARLY TOMORROW
MORNING AND WILL BRING SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION.  BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON, THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE BOUNDARY AS IT
APPROACHES THE UPPER GREAT LAKES.  THE FRONT WILL WEAKEN AS IT
MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES--THUS PRECIPITATION WILL BE EXPECTED
TO MOSTLY STAY IN SOUTHERN CANADA ON SATURDAY. THE STATIONARY
PORTION OF THE FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE
CENTRAL GREAT BASIN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES THROUGHOUT THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD.  THIS WILL ACT AS A FOCAL POINT TO SET OFF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGHOUT THE REGIONS. ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY,
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR EASTERN
COLORADO/NORTHWESTERN KANSAS AS MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF CONVECTION MOVE
ACROSS THESE REGIONS.

BY SATURDAY, A FRONT WILL EJECT OUT INTO THE PLAINS AND
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AHEAD OF A DIGGING UPPER LOW.  DEEP SOUTHERLY
FLOW WILL TRANSPORT MOISTURE FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO AHEAD OF THE
FRONT--SETTING OFF THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE FRONT RANGE TO THE OHIO
VALLEY. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY.  THERE IS ALSO A SLIGHT RISK OF FLASH FLOODING ALONG THIS
FRONT.  AS A RESULT OF THE DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW, ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES WILL BE EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE EASTERN U.S. FOR THE
BEGINNING OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

REINHART


GRAPHICS AVAILABLE AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/BASICWX/BASICWX_WBG.PHP

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