Prognostic Meteorological Discussion
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FXUS01 KWBC 140704
PMDSPD

SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
303 AM EDT MON JUL 14 2014

VALID 12Z MON JUL 14 2014 - 12Z WED JUL 16 2014

...SUMMER HEAT STILL ON FOR THE FAR WEST BUT COOLER AIR CONTINUES
TO DROP SOUTH AND EASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN US...

...THE COOLER AIR IS ASSOCIATED WITH A DEEP UPPER TROUGH THAT WILL
HELP TRIGGER WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE
LEADING EDGE OF THE COOLER AIR ACROSS PARTS OF THE MIDWEST AND
EAST...

A DEEP UPPER TROUGH WILL CROSS THE GREAT LAKES OVER THE NEXT 1 TO
3 DAYS THAT WILL SET THE STAGE FOR CONTINUED ACTIVE WEATHER HERE
AT THE HEIGHT OF THE WARMEST TIME OF THE YEAR.  ALONG THE EAST
COAST...WARM HUMID CONDITIONS WILL GIVE RISE TO SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THAT WILL BECOME PARTICULARLY INTENSE DURING THE
LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  ON MONDAY...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE SCATTERED BY WIDESPREAD FROM THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
EASTWARD ACROSS THE TENNESSEE AND OHIO VALLEYS AND INTO THE
NORTHEAST.  ON TUESDAY... AS A COLD FRONT CONTINUES SLOWLY
EASTWARD TO THE EAST COAST...SKIES WILL CLEAR OVER THE OHIO AND
TENNESSEE VALLEYS AS COOLER DRIER AIR PUSHES IN.  MEANWHILE...
TUESDAY SHOULD BE THE LAST DAY FOR THE WIDESPREAD THREAT OF HEAVY
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE EAST COAST AS THE COLD FRONT
PUSHES TOWARD THE COAST BY LATE IN THE DAY.  ON BOTH DAYS, SOME
STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING AND SEVERE
WEATHER.

AS COOLER AIR CONTINUES TO COVER MORE TERRITORY ON MONDAY AND
TUESDAY...MUCH OF THE PLAINS STATES AND MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SHOULD
EXPERIENCE QUITE PLEASANT AND COMFORTABLE WEATHER FOR AT LEAST A
COUPLE DAYS WHILE THE EAST SEES THE END OF THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY
ON TUESDAY. OVER PARTS OF THE MIDWEST...ESPECIALLY UPPER
MICHIGAN/WISCONSIN AND NORTHERN MINNESOTA...INSTABILITY SHOWERS
AND COOL AIR WILL MAKE BOTH DAYS FEEL MORE LIKE AUTUMN WITH
TEMPERATURES 10 DEGREES OR MORE BELOW NORMAL.  SEVERAL RECORD LOW
TEMPERATURES COULD ALSO BE SET.

OUT WEST...ONE MORE DAY OF RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES IS POSSIBLE
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE GREAT BASIN WHILE AN UPPER AIR DISTURBANCE
MOVES ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...CONTINUING A THREAT OF MOSTLY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS THAT COULD SET OFF SOME LOCAL
FLASH FLOODS AND POSSIBLY SET SOME WILDFIRES.  THIS SYSTEM HAS
ALREADY COOLED OFF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST AND IT LOOKS LIKE
THE HEAT WILL DIMINISH OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN AFTER
TOMORROW.  FARTHER SOUTH...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSHOWERS
WILL CONTINUE ACROSS PARTS OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND SOUTHERN
AND CENTRAL ROCKIES.

KOCIN


GRAPHICS AVAILABLE AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV
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