Prognostic Meteorological Discussion
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000
FXUS01 KWBC 141956
PMDSPD

SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
255 PM EST SUN FEB 14 2016

VALID 00Z MON FEB 15 2016 - 00Z WED FEB 17 2016

...WINTRY WEATHER DEVELOPING OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS AND
PARTS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION...

SNOW WILL TAPER OFF ACROSS THE MIDWEST AND OHIO VALLEY BY EARLY
EVENING, ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY BY MONDAY MORNING, THE
APPALACHIANS BY MONDAY AFTERNOON AND THE ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC
BY LATE MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING. THE ARCTIC AIRMASS THAT HAS
BEEN ENTRENCHED OVER MUCH OF THE GREAT LAKES, NORTHEAST AND
NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC WILL WARM BACK TO NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGE OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OUT OF
THE REGION.

THE AMPLIFIED FLOW OVER MUCH OF THE WEST WILL RESULT IN MILD AND
MAINLY DRY WEATHER WEST OF THE ROCKIES. WARM WEATHER IS FORECAST
TO CONTINUE FOR THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND CALIFORNIA WITH LITTLE IN
THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION. A SERIES OF FRONTS WILL APPROACH THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS, BUT WILL WEAKEN AS
THEY REACH THE LARGE SCALE RIDGE OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND
GREAT BASIN. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS EXPECTED FOR THE COASTAL AREAS
OF WASHINGTON AND OREGON, WHERE 3-DAY TOTALS MAY REACH REACH UP TO
6.5 INCHES. PERIODS OF HEAVIER SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED FOR THE
CASCADES WITH ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 2 FEET, THE BITTEROOTS UP TO
1.5 FEET, THE BEARTOOTHS, TETONS AND BIG HORNS WITH AMOUNTS NEAR 1
FOOT.

BY MONDAY, A DEVELOPING STORM SYSTEM OVER THE DEEP SOUTH IS
FORECAST TO TRACK NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE APPALACHIANS AND BRING A
VARIETY OF PRECIPITATION TYPES TO THE EASTERN U.S.  RAIN IS
EXPECTED OVER THE GULF COAST STATES AND THE SOUTHEAST COAST, AND
SNOW IS LIKELY OVER FAR INLAND PORTIONS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION
AND THE INTERIOR NORTHEAST.  FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET IS ALSO
LIKELY JUST WEST OF THE INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR AND INCLUDING
WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA THROUGH CENTRAL MARYLAND, WHERE WINTER
STORM WATCHES ARE CURRENTLY IN EFFECT. EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OUTLOOKS
HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR THE APPALACHIANS AND SURROUNDING AREAS ON
MONDAY AND FOR THE NORTHEAST ON TUESDAY. MANY AREAS WILL HAVE 1 TO
2 INCHES OF MOISTURE AS THIS SYSTEM TRACKS THROUGH. ISOLATED
LOCATIONS MAY HAVE 3-DAY TOTALS THAT REACH OR EXCEED 3 INCHES.

A VAST AREA SPANNING FROM THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS TO THE
NORTHEAST COULD SEE ICE ACCUMULATIONS OF 0.01 TO 0.25 INCH, WITH A
FEW ISOLATED AREAS CLOSER TO 0.50 INCH OF ICE. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
OF 2 TO 6 INCHES WILL ALSO BE COMMON ALONG THIS CORRIDOR.
LOCATIONS ALONG THE APPALACHIANS COULD SEE AMOUNTS OF 6 TO 10
INCHES. THE NORTHEAST WILL ALSO HAVE HIGHER SNOWFALL AMOUNTS AS A
CLIPPER SYSTEM APPROACHES THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MAKES ITS WAY UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD. 3-DAY
ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 12 INCHES FROM NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA TO
UPSTATE NEW YORK AND NORTHERN VERMONT. THE HIGHEST SNOW TOTALS
WILL LIKELY FALL ON THE CANADIAN SIDE OF THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER.


CAMPBELL


GRAPHICS AVAILABLE AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV
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