Prognostic Meteorological Discussion
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000
FXUS01 KWBC 291943
PMDSPD

SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
342 PM EDT SUN MAY 29 2016

VALID 00Z MON MAY 30 2016 - 00Z WED JUN 01 2016

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION BONNIE AND ITS ASSOCIATED MOISTURE WILL
ENSURE WET CONDITIONS FROM THE CAROLINAS TO LOWER NEW ENGLAND...

...SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER SECTIONS OF THE GREAT
PLAINS THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...


RECENTLY DOWNGRADED TROPICAL STORM BONNIE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
RATHER SLOW-MOVING PER THE LATEST TRACK/INTENSITY GUIDANCE FROM
THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER. DESPITE BEING IN A WEAKENED STATE,
EXPECT HEAVY DOWNPOURS ALONG WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS AND CHOPPY
SEAS ACROSS THE CAROLINAS. ADDITIONALLY, TROPICAL MOISTURE
EXTENDING NORTHWARD OFF THE ATLANTIC WILL FOCUS A BROADER AXIS OF
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL UP THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC AND LOWER
NEW ENGLAND. MUCH OF THE HEAVIER ACTIVITY IS FORECAST TO RESIDE
CLOSER TO THE COAST WHICH IS WHERE MUCH OF THE MOISTURE SHOULD
CHANNEL. THIS ENTIRE REGION CAN EXPECT AN INCREASED RISK OF FLASH
FLOODING GIVEN THE CONTINUED PRECIPITATION THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

SPLIT FLOW ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY WILL FOCUS A
PAIR OF AREAS FOR ACTIVE CONVECTION THROUGH TUESDAY. FIRST, A
SLOW-MOVING UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA WILL
GRADUALLY MIGRATE EASTWARD DURING THE NEXT TWO DAYS. IN ADVANCE OF
THIS FEATURE, ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG A NORTH-SOUTH
ORIENTED DRY LINE WILL BE THE SITE FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. SOME OF THESE MAY BE SEVERE, PARTICULARLY OVER THE
WESTERN HALF OF TEXAS WHERE THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS
HIGHLIGHTED IN THE LATEST OUTLOOKS. FURTHER, THE SLOW-MOVING
NATURE OF THESE CELLS MAY ALSO ENHANCE THE FLASH FLOOD RISK.

FARTHER NORTH, AMPLIFIED FLOW WITHIN THE NORTHERN BRANCH OF THE
JET STREAM WILL BRING A STRENGTHENING UPPER LOW INTO THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES BY MONDAY EVENING. AS THE ACCOMPANYING COLD FRONT SWEEPS
THROUGH THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS ON MONDAY/TUESDAY, HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL SPREAD EASTWARD WITH THE ACCOMPANIED THREATS OF
SEVERE WEATHER AND FLASH FLOODING BEING POSSIBLE. IN ITS WAKE,
MUCH COOLER AIR WILL ARRIVE WHICH IS EXPECTED TO BRING
TEMPERATURES 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE FOR LATE MAY.
MEANWHILE, A BUILDING RIDGE ALONG THE WEST COAST SHOULD ENSURE
MUCH WARMER CONDITIONS WITH HIGHS IN THE 90S ACROSS MUCH OF THE
REGION ON TUESDAY.


RUBIN-OSTER

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/BASICWX/BASICWX_WBG.PHP
$$





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