Prognostic Meteorological Discussion
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000
FXUS01 KWBC 222000
PMDSPD

SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
359 PM EDT TUE AUG 22 2017

VALID 00Z WED AUG 23 2017 - 00Z FRI AUG 25 2017

...ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER AND SLIGHT RISK OF FLASH
FLOODING EXPECTED ALONG A COLD FRONT...

...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
ROCKIES...

A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE EASTERN TO SOUTHERN U.S. WILL BE THE MAIN
WEATHER CAUSER OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS FOR MUCH OF THE U.S.
ON TUESDAY EVENING AND NIGHT, THE COLD FRONT WILL STRETCH FROM THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY, TENNESSEE VALLEY, LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, AND SOUTHERN PLAINS. ALONG AND AHEAD OF THIS
FRONT, SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LIKELY. AREAS FROM THE
OHIO VALLEY TOWARD THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST ARE UNDER A
SLIGHT TO ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER--SEE THE STORM
PREDICTION CENTER FOR MORE INFORMATION ON THE SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT. ADDITIONALLY, PLENTY OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO A
SLIGHT RISK OF FLASH FLOODING IN THESE AREAS ON TUESDAY NIGHT, AS
WELL AS FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND INTO ARKANSAS. AS
THE COLD FRONT PROGRESSES, BY WEDNESDAY, SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC SOUTH AND WEST INTO THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY, SOUTHEAST, LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, AND
SOUTHERN PLAINS. ON WEDNESDAY THE THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING WILL
SHIFT INTO THE CAROLINAS, AND A FEW STORMS COULD BE STRONG THERE
AS WELL. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE
CAROLINAS, GULF COAST, AND SOUTHERN PLAINS ON THURSDAY. THIS COLD
FRONT WILL LOWER TEMPERATURES FOR MOST OF THE U.S. EAST OF THE
ROCKIES, AND SOME AREAS COULD SEE TEMPERATURES 10 OR SO DEGREES
BELOW AVERAGE.

FOR THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES, SUFFICIENT MOISTURE AND AN UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH TO THE WEST WILL LEAD TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ON
WEDNESDAY. SOME STORMS COULD CAUSE FLASH FLOODING, SO THERE IS A
SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL IN EFFECT FOR WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR PORTIONS OF NEW MEXICO AND FAR WESTERN TEXAS.
SOME STORMS COULD CONTAIN HEAVY RAINFALL NORTHWARD INTO THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AS WELL. FARTHER NORTH,
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE CENTRAL GREAT BASIN ON TUESDAY
EVENING. BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE
GREAT BASIN, LEADING TO MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THERE ON
WEDNESDAY EVENING AND INTO THURSDAY. AFTER ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES FOR THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN AND NORTHERN ROCKIES ON
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY.

TATE


GRAPHICS AVAILABLE AT
WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/BASICWX/BASICWX_NDFD.PHP
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