Prognostic Meteorological Discussion
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FXUS01 KWBC 051942
PMDSPD

SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
241 PM EST FRI FEB 05 2016

VALID 00Z SAT FEB 06 2016 - 00Z MON FEB 08 2016

...HEAVY RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW POSSIBLE FOR THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST...

...ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES EXPECTED FOR THE NORTHERN PLAINS...

...SNOW FOR THE UPPER MIDWEST, THE GREAT LAKES, OHIO VALLEY AND
ALONG THE APPALACHIANS...

A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST SPREADING RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW THROUGH THE
REGION. EAST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE, MUCH OF MONTANA AND THE
DAKOTAS ARE FORECAST TO HAVE STRONG WINDS ON SATURDAY. NUMEROUS
HIGH WIND WATCHES ARE IN EFFECT ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS. THIS
SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3
INCHES, WITH SNOWFALL AMOUNTS UP TO 15 INCHES IN THE WASHINGTON
CASCADES. ACCUMULATIONS FOR THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WILL GENERALLY BE
LESS THAN 6 INCHES.

THIS SYSTEM WILL CROSS THE ROCKIES AND SURGE THROUGH THE GREAT
PLAINS, BRINGING WITH IT A SCATTERED MIX OF PRECIPITATION ON
SATURDAY. AS COOLER AIR MOVES IN PRECIPITATION WILL TRANSITION TO
MOSTLY SNOW FOR THE UPPER MIDWEST BY SATURDAY NIGHT. THE HEAVIEST
SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED FOR THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND SOUTHERN
ONTARIO. ELSEWHERE, ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 6 INCHES WILL BE COMMON.
PORTIONS OF THE LOWER GREAT LAKES, OHIO VALLEY AND THE
APPALACHIANS WILL ALSO HAVE LIGHT SNOW FALL ON SUNDAY AS THE COLD
FRONT APPROACHES. AMOUNTS FOR THESE AREAS WILL BE 1 TO 4 INCHES.

NORTH-CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE CONUS WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE WARMER
THAN AVERAGE TEMPERATURES FOR EARLY FEBRUARY. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES
FOR SATURDAY ARE FORECAST TO BE 10 TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY.

THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY OFFSHORE THE EAST
COAST WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTH AND EAST, PARALLELING THE
COAST. A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW WILL PERSIST OVER THE NORTHEAST THIS
EVENING AND INTO SATURDAY MORNING. SNOWFALL FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL
POTENTIALLY MAKE THE COMMUTING DIFFICULT FOR SOME AREAS, AS ROADS
MAY BECOME SNOW COVERED AND SLIPPERY.

A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ALONG A STATIONARY
FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE BAHAMAS ON SATURDAY, WHICH IS THEN
FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHEASTWARD INTO SUNDAY. SHOWER ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED FOR THE COASTAL SOUTHEAST THIS WEEKEND.

CAMPBELL


GRAPHICS AVAILABLE AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV
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