Prognostic Meteorological Discussion
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FXUS01 KWBC 280818
PMDSPD

SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
318 AM EST WED JAN 28 2015

VALID 12Z WED JAN 28 2015 - 12Z FRI JAN 30 2015

...NEXT ROUND OF SNOW EXPECTED OVER THE GREAT LAKES, CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS, AND NORTHEASTERN U.S. ON THURSDAY/FRIDAY...

...ANOTHER WARM DAY IN STORE FOR THE GREAT PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY...

...WET CONDITIONS ARE IN THE FORECAST OVER THE FOUR CORNERS AREA...


THE STRONG COASTAL STORM WHICH HAS BEEN DROPPING VERY HEAVY
SNOWFALL TO NEW ENGLAND IS GRADUALLY WINDING DOWN AS ONLY
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING IN ITS WAKE. A SURFACE RIDGE
BUILDING TO THE WEST WILL BRING FAIR CONDITIONS TO THE EAST COAST
ON WEDNESDAY. IN SPITE OF TEMPERATURES BEING 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL OVER THE REGION, THE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DIMINISH WITH
ABUNDANT SUNSHINE EXPECTED.

AN UPPER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY SHARPEN OVER THE GREAT
LAKES BY MIDDAY THURSDAY AS A PAIR OF SYSTEMS LOOSELY MERGE
TOGETHER. IN RESPONSE TO THIS AMPLIFICATION PROCESS, AN AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK QUICKLY TOWARD THE EAST WITH THE ATTENDANT
COLD FRONT MARCHING TOWARD THE APPALACHIANS THURSDAY EVENING. IT
APPEARS THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF MOISTURE LIFTING NORTHWARD AHEAD
OF THIS FRONT WHICH IS FORECAST TO SPARK A BROAD AREA OF LIGHT TO
MODERATE PRECIPITATION. WHILE THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THIS
PRECIPITATION SHIELD WILL FEATURE RAIN, A MAJORITY OF THE SWATH
SHOULD BE SNOW OR SOME MIXTURE. CURRENTLY WPC EXPECTS AN EXPANSIVE
AXIS OF 2 TO 6 INCHES OF SNOW OVER MUCH OF THE GREAT LAKES AND
INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS ALONG WITH THE INTERIOR NORTHEAST.
ADDITIONALLY, ENOUGH WARM AIR OVERRIDING THE BELOW FREEZING
SURFACE LAYER SHOULD CARRY A THREAT FOR FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET
ACROSS AREAS OF THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY ON THURSDAY.

RECORD-BREAKING WARMTH WILL CONTINUE ONE MORE DAY GIVEN THE
PERSISTENT DOWNSLOPING FLOW IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES. SEVERAL
RECORDS WERE BROKEN ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS YESTERDAY. IN FACT,
HIGH TEMPERATURES REACHED THE LOW TO MID 80S OVER CENTRAL KANSAS
WHICH SHATTERED RECORDS BY NEARLY 10 DEGREES. ON WEDNESDAY, EXPECT
ONE MORE DAY OF WARMTH AS HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE 25 TO 35
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS WILL
TRANSLATE TO HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S. EVENTUALLY A RETURN TO
COOLER WEATHER WILL OCCUR BY THE FOLLOWING DAY AS A COLD FRONT
SWINGS THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS LATE WEDNESDAY.

A SLOW MOVING SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH WILL EDGE EASTWARD FROM THE
SUBTROPICAL PACIFIC TOWARD THE COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA.
INCREASING MOISTURE AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM COMBINED WITH FAVORABLE
JET DYNAMICS WILL SPREAD A BATCH OF RAINFALL TO THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION ON THURSDAY EVENING INTO FRIDAY. THE HEAVIEST AXIS SHOULD
OCCUR IN OROGRAPHICALLY FAVORED AREAS LIKE THE MOGOLLON RIM. SNOW
LEVELS SHOULD BE RATHER HIGH WHICH WILL RESTRICT LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS TO THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES.


RUBIN-OSTER

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV
$$




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