Prognostic Meteorological Discussion
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599
FXUS01 KWBC 140751
PMDSPD

SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
250 AM EST SUN FEB 14 2016

VALID 12Z SUN FEB 14 2016 - 12Z TUE FEB 16 2016

...THE COLDEST AIR MASS OF THE SEASON OVER THE NORTHEAST U.S.
THROUGH SUNDAY...

...WINTRY WEATHER DEVELOPING OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS AND
PARTS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION...

THE LARGE-SCALE WEATHER PATTERN OVER THE CONTINENTAL U.S. THROUGH
MONDAY WILL BE FEATURED WITH A LARGE SCALE RIDGE OVER THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND A TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U.S.  THE
AMPLIFIED FLOW WILL RESULT IN MILD AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER WEST OF
THE ROCKIES, AND PERIODS OF RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW FOR THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST.  WARM WEATHER IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE FOR THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST AND CALIFORNIA WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION.

ARCTIC AIR WILL BE THE BIG STORY ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN U.S.
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.  AN EDDY OF THE POLAR VORTEX OVER
SOUTHEASTERN CANADA, ALONG WITH STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION, IS
BRINGING THE COLDEST WEATHER OF THIS WINTER SEASON FROM THE GREAT
LAKES TO NEW ENGLAND.  WIND CHILL WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES ARE IN
EFFECT FOR THESE AREAS, ALONG WITH SOME RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES.
ACTUAL TEMPERATURES WILL BE FRIGID WITH HIGHS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS
AND TEENS, AND SUBZERO LOWS ACROSS MUCH OF UPSTATE NEW YORK AND
NEW ENGLAND.  IT WILL ALSO BE QUITE COLD FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO
THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION.

BY MONDAY, A DEVELOPING STORM SYSTEM OVER THE DEEP SOUTH IS
FORECAST TO TRACK NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE APPALACHIANS AND BRING A
VARIETY OF PRECIPITATION TYPES TO THE EASTERN U.S.  RAIN IS
EXPECTED OVER THE GULF COAST STATES AND THE SOUTHEAST COAST, AND
SNOW IS LIKELY OVER FAR INLAND PORTIONS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION
AND THE INTERIOR NORTHEAST.  FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET IS ALSO
LIKELY JUST WEST OF THE INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR AND INCLUDING
WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA THROUGH CENTRAL MARYLAND, WHERE WINTER
STORM WATCHES ARE CURRENTLY IN EFFECT.

HAMRICK


GRAPHICS AVAILABLE AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV
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