Prognostic Meteorological Discussion
Issued by NWS

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4
000
FXUS01 KWBC 190833
PMDSPD

SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
432 AM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

VALID 12Z SAT APR 19 2014 - 12Z MON APR 21 2014

...HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE COASTAL CAROLINAS
THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND...

...A THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER LOOMS ACROSS AREAS OF WEST TEXAS ON
SUNDAY...


A SPLIT FLOW REGIME WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE COUNTRY WITH BOTH
STREAMS BEING FAIRLY ACTIVE DURING THE PERIOD. A PAIR OF SYSTEMS
IN THE SOUTHERN BRANCH OF THE JET ARE FORECAST TO BE ACTIVE
PRECIPITATION PRODUCERS THIS WEEKEND. THE LEAD UPPER TROF
CURRENTLY SPREADING MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL TO THE SOUTHEASTERN
U.S. IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN A SLOW MOVER AS THE CLOSED LOW WOBBLES
SLOWLY TOWARD THE EAST. THE APPROACHING SYSTEM SHOULD CONTINUE TO
HAVE ACCESS TO PLENTY OF MOISTURE OFF THE GULF OF MEXICO AND
SUBTROPICAL ATLANTIC WATERS. AMPLE VERTICAL LIFT ALONG THE SLOW
MOVING COLD FRONT COMBINED WITH DYNAMICS ALOFT WITH THE UPPER LOW
WILL CONTINUE TO AID IN THE PRODUCTION OF HEAVY RAINFALL
THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND. THE WPC PRECIPITATION FORECAST SUGGESTS
AMOUNTS MAY APPROACH THE 2 TO 4 INCHES THE NEXT 48 HOURS ACROSS
THE LOWER NORTH CAROLINA COAST. ANY REGIONS THAT RECEIVE A LONG
DURATION OF HIGH RAINFALL RATES MAY SEE THE POSSIBILITY OF FLASH
FLOODING.

THE OTHER SYSTEM WITHIN THE SOUTHERN STREAM IS A SLOW MOVING
CLOSED LOW CURRENTLY CROSSING THE CALIFORNIA/ARIZONA BORDER. THE
DISTURBANCE SHOULD EVENTUALLY EVOLVE INTO MORE OF AN OPEN WAVE AS
IT MIGRATES INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION ON SATURDAY. A
DISORGANIZED AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP WITH
NO REAL FOCUS VISIBLE AT THE SURFACE. OROGRAPHICS SHOULD PLAY A
ROLE IN LOCAL ENHANCEMENTS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES. GIVEN THE
UNSTABLE AIR MASS THIS SYSTEM WILL BE ENCOUNTERING ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS, THERE WILL BE A THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER
OVER WEST TEXAS ON SUNDAY.

LOOKING TO THE NORTH, AN ACTIVE NORTHERN STREAM OF THE JET WILL
CARRY A SERIES OF SYSTEMS EASTWARD WITH DECENT SEPARATION BETWEEN
EACH DISTURBANCE. WHILE THERE IS SUFFICIENT AMPLITUDE IN THE UPPER
FLOW TO ALLOW COLDER AIR TO WORK ITS WAY SOUTHWARD, IT SHOULD NOT
MAKE IT BEYOND NORTHEASTERN MINNESOTA/UPPER PENINSULA OF MICHIGAN
WHILE MOST OF THE WINTRY IMPACTS WILL BE NORTH OF THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER. PRECIPITATION OVERRUNNING THE WARM FRONT
SHOULD BRING A MIXTURE OF FREEZING RAIN AND SNOW TO SECTIONS OF
NORTHEASTERN MINNESOTA AND POSSIBLY INTO PORTIONS OF THE UPPER
PENINSULA OF MICHIGAN. OTHERWISE, LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN WILL FALL
FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND INTO THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
ALONG A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT.

ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST, THE SERIES OF DISTURBANCES MIGRATING
THROUGH THE REGION SHOULD BRING PERIODS OF RAIN TO THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS AND SNOW ACROSS THE WASHINGTON CASCADES AS THE
LOW-LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE ONSHORE. THE GENERAL LACK OF COLD AIR
SHOULD LIMIT SNOWFALL AMOUNTS TO ONLY 4 TO 6 INCHES ACROSS THIS
RANGE THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.

RUBIN-OSTER


GRAPHICS AVAILABLE AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV
$$





USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.