Prognostic Meteorological Discussion
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FXUS01 KWBC 271856
PMDSPD

SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
255 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

VALID 00Z MON JUL 28 2014 - 00Z WED JUL 30 2014

...SEVERE WEATHER AND FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY...CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AND MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES...

...ANOTHER ROUND OF COOLER AND DRIER CANADIAN AIR WITH A LARGE
CELL OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SPREAD SOUTH AND EASTWARD THROUGH THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN U.S....

...HEAVY RAIN AND FLASH FLOODING ARE POSSIBLE LATER IN THE
FORECAST FROM THE FRONT RANGE OF THE ROCKIES INTO THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS....

A STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE COMBINED WITH A MOIST AND
UNSTABLE AIRMASS IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SEVERE WEATHER INCLUDING
LARGE HAIL, DAMAGING WINDS AND A FEW TORNADOES TODAY ACROSS THE
EASTERN OHIO VALLEY...CENTRAL APPALACHIANS INTO THE MIDDLE
ATLANTIC STATES. MORE WIDESPREAD BUT SCATTERED HEAVY SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO LIKELY ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY...MIDWEST...MIDDLE ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST US THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT.  SOME HEAVY RAINS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS PORTIONS OF
PENNSYLVANIA...NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND ON MONDAY ALTHOUGH THE
THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE DIMINISHING.

AS THE UPPER DISTURBANCE CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTH AND EASTWARD...A
COLD FRONT WILL BE USHERING IN ANOTHER COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS
ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN HALF OF THE NATION OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS...LIKELY LASTING THROUGH THE END OF THE MONTH.  SOME
INSTABILITY SHOWERS ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN ACROSS THE MIDWEST
ESPECIALLY ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...WHILE COMFORTABLE
TEMPERATURES AND RELATIVELY LOW HUMIDITY COVER THE NATION FROM THE
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS EASTWARD TO THE ATLANTIC COAST.  THE
COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO DROP AS FAR SOUTH AS THE GULF COAST AND
NORTHERN FLORIDA...WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND SOUTH
OF THE FRONT.


A STRONG CANADIAN SURFACE HIGH WILL PUSH SOUTHWARD INTO THE NORTH
CENTRAL STATES AND WILL REMAIN FOR SEVERAL DAYS AND CONTINUE TO
BRING RELATIVELY COOLER AND DRIER AIR ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN US.  EASTERLY FLOW AROUND THE SURFACE HIGH WILL HELP
PRODUCE UPSLOPE FLOW ACROSS THE FRONT RANGE OF THE ROCKIES.
MEANWHILE...MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO FUEL WIDESPREAD
CONVECTION ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL ROCKIES SUNDAY AND
MONDAY AFTERNOONS.

THE COMBINATION OF UPSLOPE FLOW AND MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL FUEL
LOCALIZED AREAS OF HEAVY RAINFALL FROM THE CENTRAL ROCKIES TO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS LATE IN THE FORECAST...WHERE FLASH FLOODING COULD
BECOME A THREAT.   FARTHER NORTH...TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE
RISE IN THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AS AN
EXPANSIVE UPPER RIDGE SPRAWLED ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL U.S.
BUILDS NORTHWARD THROUGH THE REGION.


KOCIN



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