Prognostic Meteorological Discussion
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649
FXUS01 KWBC 252016
PMDSPD

SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
415 PM EDT THU AUG 25 2016

VALID 00Z FRI AUG 26 2016 - 00Z SUN AUG 28 2016

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER SEVERAL
REGIONS FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES TO THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...

...HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL PLAINS...

A FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS
WILL MOVE EASTWARD TO THE NORTHEAST/MID-ATLANTIC COAST WHILE
EXTENDING WESTWARD TO THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY FRIDAY
EVENING.  BY SATURDAY MORNING, THE BOUNDARY MOVES INTO THE
CAROLINAS WHILE THE WESTERN END DISSIPATES.  MOISTURE WILL POOL
ALONG THE FRONT AIDING IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE NORTHEAST TO PARTS OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN
HIGH PLAINS THAT WILL MOVE OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST BY FRIDAY
EVENING.  AS THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE BOUNDARY DISSIPATES, THE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE AWAY FROM THE OLD BOUNDARY
LIFTING NORTHWARD FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS/MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS/MIDDLE MISSOURI VALLEY OVERNIGHT
FRIDAY.

ADDITIONALLY, MOISTURE FLOWING NORTHWARD FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO
WILL MOVE INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND EASTERN TEXAS THAT
WILL INTERACT WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND UPPER-LEVEL ENERGY TO
PRODUCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WESTERN/CENTRAL GULF
COAST THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.  SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
ALSO DEVELOP OVER PARTS OF FLORIDA THROUGH SATURDAY.

UPPER-LEVEL ENERGY OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WILL MOVE TO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS/UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND CONSOLIDATE WITH
ADDITIONAL UPPER-LEVEL ENERGY MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD OUT OF
WEST-CENTRAL CANADA BY SATURDAY.  THE ENERGY WILL PRODUCE SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHERN//CENTRAL ROCKIES THAT
WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE INTO UPPER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY/MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND PARTS OF THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES BY SATURDAY.  THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL HAVE THE
GREATEST AREAL COVERAGE ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.
IN ADDITION, MONSOONAL MOISTURE AND DAYTIME HEATING WILL AID IN
PRODUCING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE
SOUTHWEST/EASTERN GREAT BASIN AND PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL
ROCKIES DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON INTO LATE EVENING ON THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY.


ZIEGENFELDER


GRAPHICS AVAILABLE AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/BASICWX/BASICWX_WBG.PHP
$$





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