Prognostic Meteorological Discussion
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FXUS01 KWBC 010713
PMDSPD

SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
212 AM EST WED MAR 01 2017

VALID 12Z WED MAR 01 2017 - 12Z FRI MAR 03 2017

...THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS SHIFTS EAST INTO THE TENNESSEE AND
UPPER OHIO VALLEYS AS WELL AS FROM SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND DOWN TO
THE SOUTHEAST...

...RECORD WARMTH EXPECTED FOR MANY ALONG THE EAST COAST TODAY...

...UNSETTLED WEATHER TO RETURN TO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...

ONGOING ROUNDS OF SEVERE STORMS EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS THE
MIDWEST AND OHIO VALLEY WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST TODAY WELL OUT
AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO
TEXAS. ADDITIONAL STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP NEAR THE COLD
FRONTAL BOUNDARY LATER TODAY WITH A BROAD THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS
HIGHLIGHTED BY THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER, EXTENDING FROM THE
OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS INTO THE I-95 CORRIDOR FROM NEW YORK
CITY DOWN INTO THE CAROLINAS. WHILE STRONG STRAIGHT LINE WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE THE MAIN CONCERN, LARGE HAIL AND TORNADOES WILL
ALSO BE POSSIBLE ALONG WITH FLASH FLOODING. THE FLASH FLOOD THREAT
WILL BE ESPECIALLY FOCUSED ALONG THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY INTO THE
NORTH-CENTRAL APPALACHIANS TODAY.

HIGH TEMPERATURES AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WILL BE IN THE 70S AND
80S FROM THE NEW YORK CITY METRO AND SOUTHWARD, WITH SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND LIKELY SEEING WIDESPREAD 60S. THESE VALUES ARE 15 TO 30
DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE EARLY MARCH NORMALS, AND HIGH TEMPERATURE
RECORDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE SET ACROSS SEVERAL CITIES FROM SOUTHERN
NEW ENGLAND AND NEW YORK DOWN TO THE GULF COAST. THE OTHER FEATURE
OF THIS STORM SYSTEM WORTH NOTING WILL BE A STRIPE OF LIGHT TO
LOCALLY MODERATE SNOW FROM EASTERN WISCONSIN INTO NORTHERN LOWER
MICHIGAN TOADY WHERE UP TO 6 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH LOCALLY
HIGHER TOTALS.

TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE FRONT WILL COOL DOWN TO NEAR AVERAGE FOR
THURSDAY, AND IN FACT WILL BE CLOSE TO AVERAGE ACROSS THE ENTIRE
COUNTRY. THE ONE EXCEPTION WILL BE THE DAKOTAS INTO MINNESOTA ON
THURSDAY WHERE HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO STAY IN THE TEENS
AND 20S BEHIND A SECONDARY SURGE OF COLD AIR.

AFTER THE LARGE STORM SYSTEM EXITS THE EASTERN U.S., THE WEATHER
ACROSS THE NATION WILL BE FAIRLY QUIET. LIGHT SNOW, POSSIBLY MIXED
WITH RAIN ON THE SOUTH SIDE, WILL STREAK ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
MIDWEST ON THURSDAY, REACHING THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC REGION
FRIDAY MORNING.

ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST, LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING AT WHICH POINT A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH
THE REGION BRINGING A RENEWED SURGE OF LOWER ELEVATION RAIN AND
MOUNTAIN SNOW TO WESTERN WASHINGTON AND OREGON.

OTTO


GRAPHICS AVAILABLE AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/BASICWX/BASICWX_WBG.PHP
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