Prognostic Meteorological Discussion
Issued by NWS

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FXUS01 KWBC 190800
PMDSPD

SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
359 AM EDT SAT AUG 19 2017

VALID 12Z SAT AUG 19 2017 - 12Z MON AUG 21 2017

...HEAVY RAIN AND FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE OVER PARTS OF THE
SOUTHWEST AND ROCKIES THIS WEEKEND...

...SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON
SATURDAY...

...SLIGHT RISK OF FLASH FLOODING FOR PORTIONS OF THE UPPER AND
MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON SUNDAY...

THIS WEEKEND, AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE
SOUTHWESTERN U.S. MOISTURE IS FORECAST TO INCREASE AS WELL, AND
THIS WILL TRIGGER WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS
OF THE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES. HEAVY RAIN IS
POSSIBLE FOR THESE AREAS, AND THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF FLASH
FLOODING IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO ON BOTH SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY. THE RISK WILL SPREAD NORTHWARD ON SUNDAY TO MUCH OF NEW
MEXICO AND INTO SOUTHERN COLORADO. WIDESPREAD RAINFALL TOTALS OF
1-2 INCHES ARE FORECAST OVER THE WEEKEND, WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. ADDITIONALLY, THE SIERRA IS FORECAST TO SEE
HEAVY RAIN THAT COULD CAUSE FLASH FLOODING.

ON SATURDAY, A WEAK SURFACE AND MID-LEVEL LOW WILL COMBINE WITH
SUFFICIENT MOISTURE TO PRODUCE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS PORTIONS OF NEBRASKA AND
KANSAS IN A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. A COLD FRONT IS
FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS SATURDAY EVENING AND
INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON SUNDAY. ALONG AND AHEAD OF
THIS FRONT, SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. A FEW
STORMS COULD BE STRONG, AND SINCE STORMS COULD BE SLOW MOVING AND
THERE IS PLENTY OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE, THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF
FLASH FLOODING FOR PORTIONS OF THE UPPER AND MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY. THIS FRONT WILL COOL DOWN TEMPERATURES IN THE NORTHERN
PLAINS AS WELL AFTER SATURDAY`S ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES.

ELSEWHERE, A STATIONARY FRONT IS EXPECTED TO LINGER THROUGH THE
WEEKEND ACROSS THE CAROLINAS AND PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST. THIS
WILL LEAD TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THOSE AREAS
AND FOR FLORIDA. ADDITIONALLY, SOME THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE FOR
PORTIONS OF THE OHIO VALLEY ON SATURDAY DURING THE DAY, A FEW OF
WHICH COULD BE STRONG.

TATE



GRAPHICS AVAILABLE AT
WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/BASICWX/BASICWX_NDFD.PHP
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