Prognostic Meteorological Discussion
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FXUS01 KWBC 032035
PMDSPD

SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
434 PM EDT MON AUG 03 2015

VALID 00Z TUE AUG 04 2015 - 00Z THU AUG 06 2015

...SEVERE WEATHER POSSIBLE FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO INTERIOR NEW
ENGLAND...

...A THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING EXISTS FROM THE TEXAS/OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLES TOWARD SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS/WESTERN MISSOURI...

...ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES RETURN TO THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS BY
MID-WEEK...


A BROAD UPPER LOW CENTERED JUST SOUTH OF HUDSON BAY WILL BE SLOW
TO MOVE EASTWARD IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. MULTIPLE EMBEDDED
IMPULSES WILL MIGRATE TOWARD THE EASTERN U.S. WITH A THREAT FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE PARENT COLD
FRONT. THIS BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO BE RATHER SLOW MOVING WITH
CONVECTION OCCURRING IN THE MOIST/UNSTABLE AIR MASS OUT AHEAD.
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG ALL OF INTERIOR NEW
ENGLAND AND STRETCHING DOWN INTO SOUTHERN OHIO/NORTHERN KENTUCKY
THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. BY THE FOLLOWING DAY, EXPECT THE ACTIVITY
TO BE LESS CONCENTRATED AND A BIT MORE DISORGANIZED AS THE CORE OF
STRONGER DYNAMICS REMAINS WELL TO THE NORTH.

ELSEWHERE, MULTIPLE LOBES OF ENERGY MEANDERING ABOUT THE CENTRAL
GREAT BASIN/CENTRAL ROCKIES REGION CONTINUE TO SPAWN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN ITS VICINITY. OVERALL RAINFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD BE
HEAVIEST IN THE UPSLOPE TOPOGRAPHY. EVENTUALLY ONE OF THESE
DISTURBANCES WILL EMERGE OFF THE FRONT RANGE OF THE ROCKIES AND
BEGIN TO INTERACT WITH A WELL DEFINED MOISTURE PLUME MOVING
THROUGH THE GREAT PLAINS. IT APPEARS A RATHER ORGANIZED AREA OF
CONVECTION SHOULD MOVE THROUGH THE TEXAS/OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES LATER
THIS EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. HIGH RAINFALL RATES
COMBINED WITH SATURATED SOILS MAY INCREASE THE THREAT FOR FLASH
FLOODING ACROSS THE AFOREMENTIONED PANHANDLE REGIONS OF
TEXAS/OKLAHOMA. EVENTUALLY THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD WEAKEN BY TUESDAY
MORNING BEFORE RE-ORGANIZING LATER IN THE EVENING ACROSS
SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS. STRENGTHENING OF THIS CONVECTION SHOULD
SUPPORT AN ADDITIONAL FLASH FLOOD THREAT ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN
KANSAS/WESTERN MISSOURI THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.

A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY ANCHORING THE CENTRAL/EASTERN GULF
COAST REGION WILL MAINTAIN A THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS,
PARTICULARLY IN LOCATIONS NEAR THE COAST WHERE LOCAL SEA BREEZE
EFFECTS WILL COME INTO PLAY.

BACK TO THE WEST, A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE OVER THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION/ADJACENT SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS WILL BRING ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES BACK TO THE REGION BY MID-WEEK. EXPECT READINGS
APPROXIMATELY 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WHICH SUPPORTS
TEMPERATURES AROUND THE CENTURY MARK.


RUBIN-OSTER

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV
$$




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