Prognostic Meteorological Discussion
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182
FXUS01 KWBC 230710
PMDSPD

SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
309 AM EDT MON OCT 23 2017

VALID 12Z MON OCT 23 2017 - 12Z WED OCT 25 2017

...LARGE STORM SYSTEM TO AFFECT THE EASTERN HALF OF THE NATION...

A STRONG AUTUMN STORM SYSTEM IS NOW IN THE PROGRESS OF BECOMING
BETTER ORGANIZED AS TWO SEPARATE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS CONSOLIDATE
OVER THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY.  POTENT SHORTWAVE
ENERGY ALOFT OVER THE DEEP SOUTH IS FORECAST TO PHASE WITH AN
APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST, AND FUELING
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A LARGE AND OCCLUDED SURFACE LOW THAT WILL
TRACK FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO ONTARIO AND QUEBEC.  A STRONG COLD
FRONT WILL TRAIL SOUTHWARD FROM THIS LOW, AND BRING A SWATH OF
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN ALONG WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS TOWARDS
THE EAST COAST BY MONDAY NIGHT.  THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL IS LIKELY
TO MATERIALIZE ACROSS SOUTHERN MICHIGAN IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE
MAIN SURFACE LOW, AND ALSO FOR CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND AS DEEP
MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE FRONT LEADS TO 1 TO 3 INCH RAINFALL AMOUNTS.
 SOME INSTANCES OF FLASH FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE GIVEN THE
ATMOSPHERIC SET-UP.

ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE CONTINENTAL U.S., FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS PARTS OF CALIFORNIA OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH
VERY DRY CONDITIONS AND GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED.  A BIG HEAT WAVE IS
ALSO IN THE FORECAST FOR SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA, WITH WIDESPREAD 90S
AND 100S EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY WITH EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNINGS IN
EFFECT.  COOL AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE PLAINS
AND THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE THAT IS
LARGE AND IN CHARGE.

D. HAMRICK



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