Prognostic Meteorological Discussion
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916
FXUS01 KWBC 231959
PMDSPD

SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
358 PM EDT SUN JUL 23 2017

VALID 00Z MON JUL 24 2017 - 00Z WED JUL 26 2017

...CONCERNS OF FLASH FLOODING AND SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS THE
MID-ATLANTIC REGION WILL END TONIGHT...

...RELIEF FROM THE DANGEROUS HEAT EXPECTED FROM THE PLAINS TO THE
MID-ATLANTIC AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE EAST...

...LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR THE SOUTHWEST AND
SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...


THE WAVY FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT STRETCHES FROM THE NORTHEAST TO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.  THE LAST ROUND OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE MID-ATLANTIC WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION
TONIGHT AND COULD LAST THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.  THESE STORMS COULD
PRODUCE BOTH FLASH FLOODING AND SEVERE WEATHER.  BY MONDAY,
ISOLATED STORMS COULD BE POSSIBLE FOR THE MID-ATLANTIC HOWEVER
ORGANIZED PRECIPITATION AS SEEN IN THE LAST FEW DAYS IS NOT
EXPECTED.  MEANWHILE, PRECIPITATION INCREASES ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE CAROLINAS ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS THE COLD FRONT
SLOWLY DRIFTS SOUTH.  FARTHER NORTH, AS AN AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE MOVES EASTWARD OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION, HEAVY RAIN
AND SEVERE WEATHER COULD BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT AND INTO MONDAY
MORNING.  AN INCREASE IN PRECIPITATION CAN BE EXPECTED FOR THE
NORTHEAST AND NEW ENGLAND ON MONDAY NIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY AS THIS
UPPER LEVEL ENERGY MOVES OVER NEW ENGLAND.

DANGEROUS HEAT THAT HAS PLAGUED AREAS ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE U.S. WILL FINALLY BE DELIVERED SOME RELIEF AS THE COLD FRONT
SINKS OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
TEMPERATURES IN THESE AREAS WILL BE CLOSE TO NORMAL.  ONE MORE HOT
AND HUMID DAY FOR THE MID-ATLANTIC CAN BE EXPECTED ON MONDAY
BEFORE THE COLD FRONT MOVES OVER THE AREA.

ELSEWHERE, MONSOONAL MOISTURE ALONG WITH DAYTIME HEATING WILL
TRIGGER THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST AND THE SOUTHERN HALF
OF THE ROCKIES ON SUNDAY. HEAVY DOWNPOURS ASSOCIATED WITH THESE
THUNDERSTORMS COULD LEAD TO LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING. AN INCREASE
IN FLASH FLOODING THREAT WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS ARIZONA ON
MONDAY.

AS A COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND INTO THE
UPPER MIDWEST ON TUESDAY, SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP
ALONG AND AHEAD OF IT.  THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF FLASH FLOODING
AND SEVERE WEATHER FOR THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS
AND AREAS ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST.

REINHART

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE AT
WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/BASICWX/BASICWX_NDFD.PHP
$$





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