Prognostic Meteorological Discussion
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000
FXUS01 KWBC 222100
PMDSPD

SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
359 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

VALID 00Z SUN NOV 23 2014 - 00Z TUE NOV 25 2014

***UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE WESTERN U.S.***

***STRONG LOW PRESSURE TO IMPACT THE GREAT LAKES***

***MODERATING TEMPERATURES AND WIDESPREAD RAIN FOR THE EASTERN
U.S. INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK***

A PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM CURRENTLY CROSSING THE WESTERN U.S. THIS
WEEKEND IS EXPECTED TO BRING WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION FROM THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST TO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES THROUGH TONIGHT AND EARLY
SUNDAY. THIS WILL INCLUDE NUORRISONMEROUS RAIN SHOWERS AND HIGHER
ELEVATION SNOW FOR THE GREAT BASIN AND THE ROCKIES. THE ACTIVITY
WILL TAPER DOWN DURING THE DAY SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE STEADILY
NOSES EAST INTO THE WEST AND THIS WILL YIELD CONSIDERABLY DRIER
WEATHER FOR THE START OF THE NEW WEEK.

ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN U.S., VERY CHANGEABLE WEATHER
CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. TWO AREAS
OF LOW PRESSURE, WITH ONE INITIALLY OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND A
SECOND AND GRADUALLY MORE DOMINANT LOW CENTER DEVELOPING OVER THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL WORK IN TANDEM TO DRIVE A
SIGNIFICANT WARM-UP AT LEAST FOR A COUPLE OF DAYS OVER THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE COUNTRY. WIDESPREAD RAINFALL, SOME OF IT HEAVY, IS
EXPECTED OVER SOUTHERN PLAINS AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TONIGHT
INTO VERY EARLY SUNDAY, BUT THIS WILL SHIFT EAST ACROSS THE GULF
COAST STATES ON SUNDAY AS A WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTH
ACROSS THIS REGION. WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL SURGE NORTH ACROSS
THE OHIO VALLEY...MID-ATLANTIC AND THE NORTHEAST SUNDAY AND MONDAY
AS THE SURFACE LOW CENTER OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTENSIFIES
RAPIDLY AND LIFTS THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND DRIVES THE
AFOREMENTIONED WARM FRONT WELL NORTH UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD.
MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH MONDAY
ACROSS THE EAST, BUT THERE WILL BE A STRONG COLD FRONT THEN
ADVANCING RAPIDLY EAST BY LATE MONDAY ACROSS THE EAST WHICH WILL
BE APPROACHING THE EAST COAST BY MONDAY NIGHT. UNFORTUNATELY, THE
MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES COUPLED WITH HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL MAY
RESULT IN SOME FLOODING CONCERNS OVER PORTIONS OF THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES REGION WHERE RECORD OR NEAR RECORD LAKE EFFECT SNOWFALL
OCCURRED OVER THE LAST WEEK. MUCH COLDER AIR IN THE WAKE OF THE
GREAT LAKES LOW CENTER WILL SURGE SOUTHEAST, AND SO THE WARM-UP
WHILE SIGNIFICANT, SHOULD BE RATHER SHORT-LIVED. THE COLD AIR
TUCKED IN CLOSE TO THE LOW CENTER WILL FAVOR ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL
FOR THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION BY LATE MONDAY. THIS COLD AIR
WILL FILTER WELL SOUTH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND THE GULF
COAST REGION, WHICH WILL BRING TEMPERATURES GENERALLY BACK TO
BELOW NORMAL LEVELS, BUT WITH DRIER CONDITIONS TO START THE NEW
WEEK.

ORRISON

GRAPHICS AVAILABLE AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV
$$




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