Prognostic Meteorological Discussion
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000
FXUS01 KWBC 300708
PMDSPD

SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
307 AM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

VALID 12Z TUE SEP 30 2014 - 12Z THU OCT 2 2014

***STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE GREAT PLAINS***

***SHOWERS AND SOME MOUNTAIN SNOW FOR THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS***

***TROUGH OVER THE EAST COAST ALONG WITH SOME SHOWERS***

THE MAIN WEATHER MAKER ACROSS THE CONTINENTAL U.S. WILL BE A
STRENGTHENING SURFACE LOW THAT WILL TRACK ACROSS THE DAKOTAS AND
INTO MANITOBA, CANADA BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT.  THIS WILL ALSO BE
ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT IS LIFTING NORTHWARD FROM
THE CENTRAL ROCKIES.  AT THE SURFACE, A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT IS
PROGGED TO EXTEND SOUTHWARD FROM THIS LOW WITH ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE FORMING ALONG IT OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS.

IN TERMS OF SENSIBLE WEATHER, THERE WILL LIKELY BE MULTIPLE ROUNDS
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDING FROM TEXAS TO THE UPPER
MIDWEST.  LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT WHERE MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IS MAXIMIZED.  A FEW
SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE SURGE OF WARM AND HUMID AIR IN
THE WARM SECTOR OF THIS SYSTEM.

ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE COUNTRY, SHOWERS FROM TIME TO TIME CAN BE
EXPECTED FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC TO THE NORTHEAST AS A WEAK UPPER
LEVEL LOW COMBINES WITH MOISTURE ADVECTING WESTWARD FROM THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN.  SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE IN THE FORECAST
FOR THE CENTRAL GULF COAST AND FLORIDA.  OUT WEST OVER THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES, SOME HIGH ELEVATION SNOW SHOWERS ARE LIKELY
ABOVE 8000 FEET WITH LINGERING MOISTURE AND COLD AIR FROM THE
DEPARTING UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE DAKOTAS.

HAMRICK


GRAPHICS AVAILABLE AT WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV
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