900
FXUS62 KTAE 050735
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
335 AM EDT Sun May 5 2024

...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER, HYDROLOGY...

.NEAR TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 333 AM EDT Sun May 5 2024

Isolated to scattered showers and storms will be possible this
afternoon and evening, although coverage is expected to be much less
than yesterday as the shortwave has pushed off to the northeast.
Forecast soundings for this afternoon show an inverted V shape along
with DCAPE around 800-900 J/kg, indicating a favorable environment
for gusty winds with the stronger storms that develop today. Storm
motion appears to be fairy slow again today, so some isolated
pockets of heavy rainfall will be possible. However, PWs are
forecast to be a little less than yesterday`s, and overall coverage
of storms today is forecast to be much less which should together
limit the flood threat. Highs are forecast in the upper 80s to low
90s with lows tonight generally in the mid to upper 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Monday through Tuesday night)
Issued at 333 AM EDT Sun May 5 2024

One more day of isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms is
forecast Monday before high pressure takes over Monday night into
Tuesday. Temperatures will manage the upper 80s to near 90 Monday
afternoon and be a degree or two warmer Tuesday afternoon. Overnight
lows will generally remain in the middle to upper 60s both nights,
but Tuesday night is forecast to be a degree or two warmer than
Monday night.

All this is thanks to an H5 shortwave moving through the Tennessee
Valley, or well north of our area. Enough moisture will be in place
Monday afternoon to allow a 30 to 50 percent chance for rain for our
eastern time zone counties, or east of the Chattahoochee and
Apalachicola River. Lower chances, around 10 to 20 percent, for rain
are forecast across SE Alabama and the Florida Panhandle as the sea
breeze pushes inland.

Tuesday will see the H5 shortwave up near the Delmarva Peninsula as
a ridge builds in from the Gulf of Mexico. The subsidence from this
ridge will put a lid on rain chances and generally keep them to 15
percent or less along the sea breeze Tuesday afternoon. The lack of
rain in the forecast will also allow temperatures to nudge up a few
degrees from Monday.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Saturday)
Issued at 333 AM EDT Sun May 5 2024

Warm and dry weather is forecast for the middle of the week before a
cold front swings through sometime Friday. Temperatures ahead of the
front are forecast to climb into the lower 90s for highs and near 70
for lows. A cold front is forecast to arrive, along with a few
showers and thunderstorms, sometime Friday and bring cooler
conditions next weekend.

An H5 ridge over the region should keep us mostly dry, except for a
very isolated shower or storm along the sea breeze, Wednesday and
Thursday. The recent trend in model guidance has been for the H5
ridge to be a little flatter thanks to the more progressive nature
of the H5 trough moving through the middle of the country. This H5
trough will eventually push a cold front through the Southeast
Friday into Saturday. There will be enough moisture associated with
the front to produce showers and thunderstorms as it moves through
the area. It`s too soon to determine any severe potential with this
system, but we`ll keep an eye on it as it appears there could be
some overlap of adequate shear and instability on Friday.

Temperatures will generally be in the lower to middle 90s away from
the immediate coast Wednesday and Thursday before cooling back
closer to normal, or the middle 80s, by Saturday. Overnight lows
will follow a similar path with upper 60s to lower 70s Wednesday and
Thursday nights before cooling back into the 60s as early as Friday
night.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 106 AM EDT Sun May 5 2024

A mix of fog and low stratus will be possible early this morning
but should dissipate by mid/late morning. A few showers and storms
will be possible this afternoon, particularly across the eastern
FL Big Bend and SW Georgia, however coverage is expected to be too
low to include in the tafs for now.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 333 AM EDT Sun May 5 2024

Generally light south to southeast winds are expected through the
middle of next week with high pressure off to our east. Seas will
remain around 2 to 3 feet. Some increase in winds are possible mid
to late week as the pressure gradient tightens ahead of a cold front
on Friday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 333 AM EDT Sun May 5 2024

Isolated to scattered showers and storms will be possible both
Sunday and Monday afternoons with gusty and erratic winds possible
nearby. High dispersions are expected Monday and Tuesday afternoons
as mixing heights rise and southwesterly transport winds increase.
Otherwise, there are no fire weather concerns.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 333 AM EDT Sun May 5 2024

A few locations picked up several inches of rain Saturday, notably
Miller and Early County in SW Georgia. Any showers or storms that
develop today will have the capability of dropping a quick inch or
two of rain and could lead to localized flooding of poor drainage or
urban areas. Riverine flooding is not anticipated due to the
sporadic nature of the showers and storms the next couple of
afternoons.

Drier weather is expected through the middle of the week before
another chance for rain enters the forecast picture Friday as a cold
front swings through the Southeast.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   90  67  89  67 /  20  10  30   0
Panama City   85  69  84  70 /  10   0  10   0
Dothan        89  67  88  67 /  20  20  30   0
Albany        88  67  89  67 /  20  20  50  10
Valdosta      89  67  88  67 /  40  20  50  20
Cross City    87  65  87  65 /  40  10  40  10
Apalachicola  81  71  81  71 /  10   0  10   0

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk through late tonight for FLZ108-112-114-
     115.

GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...Merrifield
SHORT TERM...Reese
LONG TERM....Reese
AVIATION...Merrifield
MARINE...Reese
FIRE WEATHER...Merrifield
HYDROLOGY...Reese