Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS
FXUS62 KTAE 211452
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
1052 AM EDT Tue May 21 2013
.NEAR TERM [Through Tonight]...
Another warm afternoon is on tap across the area under full May
sunshine. A weak upper level low remains in place over northeast
Florida, but the TAE forecast area will remain on the dry side of
this feature with weak northeasterly flow aloft. Best rain chances
will be across the far eastern Big Bend and south central Georgia,
where east coast seabreeze activity and possible convection from
central Georgia may develop by late this afternoon.
Temperatures should rise well into the 90s for most areas this
afternoon, especially over the southern half. Adjusted max temp
grids to closer reflect persistence from yesterday, which saw
slightly cooler temperatures over the northern counties than what
was in the previous forecast.
.SHORT TERM [Wednesday Through Thursday]...
The mid/upper low that had been meandering over the Southeast for
the past few days will open up into an approaching shortwave and
begin to move north into Georgia on Wednesday. This will continue
to focus the higher chances for showers and thunderstorms across
the eastern third of the forecast area, however, the threat for
isolated strong to severe storms will decrease as the steeper
lapse rates move to our north. Overnight, the threat for
convection will continue, primarily over our Georgia counties
where boundaries from storms along a front to our west collide
with boundaries from our afternoon storms further east. Waning
instability and weak shear will likely inhibit strong to severe
thunderstorm development on Wednesday night. On Thursday, a weak
cold front will move into the Tri-State region and lay out from
west to east. This will likely act as a focus for afternoon storm
development, probably aided by the seabreeze later in the day.
Steepening lapse rates with cooling mid level temperatures could
allow for some of the stronger storms to produce hail and gusty
winds. This would be especially true west of a line from Albany
south to Tallahassee. Highs will generally be in the lower 90s
inland and mid 80s near the coast each afternoon. Wednesday night
will feature temperatures in the middle 60s away from the rain,
and a bit warmer across south Georgia.
.LONG TERM [Thursday Night through Monday]...
Unsettled weather pattern will continue into the late part of the
week, but will replaced by drier weather for the weekend as a
slow moving trough finally shifts away from the area. A mid/upper
level ridge of high pressure will begin to establish itself over
the area for the holiday weekend into next week which should
preclude more than isolated afternoon showers/tstms. Temperatures
are expected to remain seasonal with highs in the upper 80s/lower
90s and overnight lows in the 60s.
.AVIATION [Through 12Z Wednesday]...
VFR conditions forecast to prevail through the day today. Brief
MVFR conditions will be possible overnight tonight. A few
thunderstorms will be possible this afternoon, with the best
chances at KVLD and KABY.
Light winds and low seas will prevail for the next several days
under the influence of surface high pressure. Some slight
enhancements will be possible near the coast within the seabreeze
No Red Flag concerns are expected for the next several days, with
Afternoon Relative Humidities remaining safely above critical
Only scattered showers and thunderstorms are anticipated over the
next couple of afternoons. With weak steering flow, any storms
that do form will have the potential to meander very slowly or
propagate along boundaries. For that reason, there will remain the
potential for isolated nuisance flooding, but this will have
little to no impact on area rivers and streams.
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee 94 65 89 65 91 / 10 10 40 30 40
Panama City 87 68 85 69 84 / 10 10 10 20 40
Dothan 92 65 93 68 90 / 10 10 20 40 40
Albany 92 66 92 68 91 / 20 10 40 40 40
Valdosta 95 64 90 65 93 / 30 20 50 40 40
Cross City 93 64 89 64 92 / 40 20 40 30 40
Apalachicola 86 67 82 69 82 / 10 10 20 20 40