Routine Space Environment Product (Daily)
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
857
FXXX10 KWNP 030031
DAYTDF
:Product: 3-Day Forecast
:Issued: 2024 May 03 0030 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
# 3-Day Forecast
#
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast
The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 7 (NOAA Scale
G3).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for May 03-May 05 2024 is 6.67 (NOAA Scale
G3).
NOAA Kp index breakdown May 03-May 05 2024
May 03 May 04 May 05
00-03UT 6.67 (G3) 4.00 3.67
03-06UT 5.67 (G2) 2.33 3.33
06-09UT 5.67 (G2) 3.00 2.67
09-12UT 4.67 (G1) 2.67 2.33
12-15UT 3.67 2.67 2.00
15-18UT 3.00 2.67 2.00
18-21UT 2.33 2.67 2.00
21-00UT 2.67 3.67 3.00
Rationale: An early, isolated period of G3 (Strong) geomagnetic storming
is expected on 03 May, with a few periods of G1-2 (Minor-Moderate)
storming expected thereafter, as lingering CME effects slowly wane.
B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast
Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.
Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for May 03-May 05 2024
May 03 May 04 May 05
S1 or greater 15% 15% 10%
Rationale: A slight chance for a R1 (Minor) solar radiation storm will
persist through 05 May as AR 3654 rotates beyond the western limb, and
AR 3663 continues to show signs of evolution.
C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast
Radio blackouts reaching the R1 levels were observed over the past 24
hours. The largest was at May 02 2024 2057 UTC.
Radio Blackout Forecast for May 03-May 05 2024
May 03 May 04 May 05
R1-R2 65% 55% 55%
R3 or greater 15% 15% 10%
Rationale: Isolated R1-2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts due to M-class
flare activity are likely through 05 May primarily due to the potential
exhibited by ARs 3663 and 64.