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000
FXUS65 KTFX 140000
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
600 PM MDT Thu Jun 13 2013

UPDATED AVIATION SECTION

.DISCUSSION...
Tonight through Saturday...An area of showers and isolated
thunderstorms will move northward through the region for the rest
of this afternoon and into the evening hours...as the main upper
level trof moves through the region. An isolated strong storm is
possible this evening...but mainly over Southwest MT. Brief heavy
rainfall is possible further north with the stronger storms...but
additional flooding is not expected at this time. Also...colder
air will move into southwest MT overnight...lowering snow levels
to about 6500 to 7000 feet. A few inches of snow will be possible
above 7000 feet...but for now...no winter highlights planned for.
On Friday...the main trof swings through Southwest MT resulting in
a fairly good chance for rain/high mountain snow over this region
through the mid afternoon hours. Further north...mainly isolated
showers are possible through the day. Afternoon temperatures will
remain cool...generally near 10 degrees below normal over the
north...and near 15 degrees below normal over the Southwest. For
Friday night through Saturday...an upper level ridge will start to
rebuild over the region. This will result in a drying and warming
trend. Dry conditions are expected across the area for
Saturday...along with temperatures returning to near normal for
this time of the year in most places. Brusda

Saturday night through Thursday...High confidence in the long term
forecast continues. Models remain in excellent pattern agreement
throughout the long term forecast. High pressure begins to build in
from the southeast for Saturday and Sunday bringing a nice weekend
to the region. High pressure begins to break down somewhat Monday
ahead of a large low pressure system approaching the Pacific coast.
The setup for next week mirrors the past week almost exactly. Expect
Monday and Tuesday to return to unstable convective conditions with
periods of showers and thunderstorms possible. A front moves through
the region late Wednesday into early Thursday bringing chances of
precipitation to portions of Central Montana. Precipitation with
this system also looks very similar to the past week with most of
Central Montana having a shot at getting some rain Wednesday and
Thursday. Temperatures start out warm Saturday through Monday before
falling Tuesday in response to the incoming system. Winds look to
remain mostly light with only some afternoon breeziness.

&&

.AVIATION...
Updated 0000Z.
A deep trough of low pressure will continue to influence the weather
across the region tonight. Scattered thunderstorms from KBZN to KLWT
and KHVR will exit the region around 03Z. MVFR conditions are
expected around KBZN and KLWT due to low CIGS through the evening.
After midnight CIGS should improve to VFR, VFR conditions should
then prevail through Friday afternoon. Gusty westerly winds will
develop Friday afternoon with gusts of 25 to 30 knots across central
Montana. Langlieb

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Point flood warnings remain in effect for the Big Sandy Creek near
Havre and Clear Creek near Chinook. Rain from overnight
thunderstorms and additional light rain today will keep water
levels high in many creeks and streams, but drier weather this
weekend should result in gradually decreasing levels into early
next week.
Waranauskas

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  43  64  43  74 /  40  20  10   0
CTB  42  64  42  72 /  40  20  10   0
HLN  44  63  44  75 /  60  40  10   0
BZN  42  60  40  74 /  60  70  20   0
WEY  34  54  31  68 /  40  50  10   0
DLN  40  57  37  72 /  60  70  20   0
HVR  48  67  46  75 /  50  20  10   0
LWT  43  62  41  71 /  60  40  10   0

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

Flood Warnings continue until further notice for Big Sandy Creek
near Havre and Clear Creek near Chinook.

&&

$$

weather.gov/greatfalls