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000
FXUS63 KTOP 230812
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
312 AM CDT THU MAY 23 2013

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 230 AM CDT THU MAY 23 2013

THE OLD UPPER SYSTEM CONTINUES TO SLIDE EAST AND WEAKEN OVER THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES...WITH 0Z 500MB HEIGHT CHANGE OBSERVATIONS
DEPICTING WEAK TO MODERATE RISES ACROSS THE PLAINS. LOW LEVEL
RIDGING WAS TAKING SHAPE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS...WITH SOUTH
WINDS TAKING HOLD OVER THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS. A SHRINKING STRATUS
DECK WAS OOZING SOUTH THROUGH NEBRASKA EARLY THIS MORNING.

SHALLOW NATURE TO THE LOW CLOUDS AND INCREASING LOW LEVEL ISENTROPIC
DOWNGLIDE SHOULD ALLOW THE INVADING STRATUS TO DISSIPATE THIS
MORNING THOUGH MORE COULD REDEVELOP WITH DAYTIME HEATING. TEMPS
AGAIN STAY ON THE COOL SIDE WITH NORTH WINDS VEERING TO THE EAST
THROUGH THE DAY. FURTHER VEERING ON TRACK FOR TONIGHT AS LEE LOW
PRESSURE BEGINS TO TAKE SHAPE AND UPPER HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO RISE.
MID LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES A BIT IN THE WEST WITH MODEST
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE VIA WEAK WINDS AND ELEVATED CAPE DEVELOPING. THIS
COULD BE ENOUGH TO USHER ANY HIGH PLAINS CONVECTION INTO NORTH
CENTRAL KANSAS LATE TONIGHT...THOUGH CONFIDENCE IN THE FORMER MAKING
IT THIS FAR NORTH IS NOT VERY HIGH.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 230 AM CDT THU MAY 23 2013

DESPITE THE FACT THAT THERE ARE CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION THROUGH
THE FORECAST FOR FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY...REST ASSURED IT
WONT BE RAINING ALL DAY EVERY DAY. CONVECTION IS BEING DRIVEN BY
SMALL WAVES IN THE FLOW THAT ARE DIFFICULT TO TIME...BY THE
NOCTURNAL LLJ...AS WELL AS THE BOUNDARIES THAT THE CONVECTION
LEAVES BEHIND TO REGENERATE CHANCES FOR THE FOLLOWING DAY...AND
OTHER MESOSCALE INTERACTIONS RELATED TO ALL THESE FEATURES. WILL
LIKELY BE ABLE TO TIME PRECIPITATION CHANCES BETTER IN A WINDOW
CLOSER TO THEIR TIME SCALES...BY A MATTER OF A DAY OR TWO RATHER
THAN SEVERAL DAYS OUT.

FIRST FEATURE IS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED N/S FROM THE DAKOTAS
INTO NEBRASKA...THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF WHICH CLIPS ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE DAY ON FRIDAY. THE FOLLOWING NIGHT LLJ
SLIDES CONVECTION ALONG THE NORTH AND TO THE NE OF THE CWA AND MAY
RUN THROUGH OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES. BOUNDARY FROM THIS MCS COULD THEN
LAY UP ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND REGENERATE
STORMS...WITH YET ANOTHER WEAK WAVE RIDING ACROSS WRN/CTRL KS AND
BRINGING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR TS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
MAY CATCH A BREAK BETWEEN WAVES ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE
POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER WAVE TO LIFT ACROSS THE WRN THRU NORTHERN
COUNTIES INTO MONDAY. SOME SUGGESTION THAT RIDGE AMPLIFIES TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY IN THE ECMWF...ALTHOUGH GFS AMPLIFIES IT FARTHER TO
THE EAST OF OUR FA AND KEEPS THE DAMP PATTERN GOING FOR ANOTHER
DAY. AFTER A COOLER DAY IN THE 70S ON FRIDAY...AS SFC RIDGE SHIFTS
EAST AND WAA RETURNS...SHOULD SE A SHIFT BACK TOWARD THE LOWER 80S
FOR HIGHS ACROSS THE AREA. IF THE RIDGE CAN AMPLIFY...MAY SEE
WARMER TEMPS TOWARD LATER NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1122 PM CDT WED MAY 22 2013

THE RAP AND NAM CONTINUE TO SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR MVFR CIGS
MOVING IN FROM THE NORTH BY 12Z. THEREFORE FORECAST THINKING IS
UNCHANGED. CIGS SHOULD GRADUALLY IMPROVE BY NOON WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR A STRATOCU DECK PERSISTING THROUGH A GOOD PORTION OF
THE DAY. SFC WINDS WILL GRADUALLY VEER WITH RIDGING NOSING IN.


&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...65
LONG TERM...67
AVIATION...WOLTERS