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000
FXUS63 KTOP 220532
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
1232 AM CDT Mon Apr 22 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Winds increase Monday with south-southwest winds of 20-30mph
  and gusts of 35-45mph, strongest across portions of north
  central Kansas where a Wind Advisory has been issued.

- An active pattern is expected this week with several chances
  for rain and thunderstorms. Best chances (60-80%) come
  Thursday and Friday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 234 PM CDT Sun Apr 21 2024

Mid-level ridging is building over the Northern and Central Plains
this afternoon behind a departing shortwave. Surface high pressure
remains in control of the region, leading to pleasant day with sunny
skies, light winds, and temperatures reaching into the low 60s. The
surface ridge slides southeast of the area tonight and the pressure
gradient tightens as a surface low deepens across the Northern
Plains. There could be some patchy frost across eastern portions of
the forecast area, but increasing winds overnight and large dewpoint
depressions should largely preclude frost development.

Winds increase from the south-southwest after sunrise Monday with
sustained winds of 20-30mph and gusts of 35-45mph. The strongest
winds will be across portions of north central Kansas where the
pressure gradient is tightest; a Wind Advisory has been issued for
this area. A perturbation diving southeast out of Canada will
shunt a cold front through the area Monday evening into early
Tuesday. The deeper moisture and better ascent will reside
closer to the surface boundary across Iowa, southeast Nebraska,
and far northern Kansas during the evening, which is where CAMs
depict showers and thunderstorms developing. The orientation of
the low-level jet favors these showers/storms to push east
during the evening and overnight hours, but lift and moisture
along the front as it moves through could be sufficient for
showers and an isolated thunderstorm into Tuesday morning. A
strengthening low-level wind field overnight Monday into Tuesday
could generate some advisory-level winds south of the front,
but lack of mixing during this time leads to low confidence in
this occurring.

Temperatures remain seasonal behind the front Tuesday through
Thursday with highs in the upper 60s to mid 70s. Several embedded
perturbations in the quasi-zonal flow eject across the Plains on
Wednesday, bringing low chances (15-25%) for showers and storms
to the area. Better precipitation chances arrive Thursday-Friday
as a potent trough ejects across the Plains. A warm front will
advance north Thursday into Friday with the warm sector residing
across eastern Kansas ahead of a dryline by midday Friday.
While uncertainty remains high this far out, models are in
decent agreement with an overlap of shear and instability
supportive strong to severe storms, especially on Friday.
Details will become clearer as the event approaches, so be sure
to stay up to date with the latest forecast.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1232 AM CDT Mon Apr 22 2024

VFR TAFs will be expected through the period with winds being
the main aviation hazard. Winds will remain light overnight,
shifting to the south before increasing Monday morning. Late
morning and afternoon south/southwesterly winds will be
sustained between 20-30 mph with gusts upwards of 35-40 mph.
Have taken out gusts around sunset Monday as the BL decouples,
but still could see occasional gusts up to 25-30 mph
periodically Monday evening. Rain chances will also increase
along a southeast-moving cold front, but has been kept out of
the TAF at this time for low confidence in location.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 6 PM CDT this evening
for KSZ020-KSZ021-KSZ034-KSZ035.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Flanagan
AVIATION...Griesemer