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000
FXUS63 KTOP 151834
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
134 PM CDT SAT JUN 15 2013

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 128 PM CDT SAT JUN 15 2013

...SEVERE THREAT DIMINISHING WEST WHILE THREAT FOR HEAVY RAIN AND
SEVERE STORMS CONTINUES SOUTHEAST...

QUICK UPDATE TO BETTER REFLECT CONDITIONS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON.
SHORTWAVE TROF CURRENTLY OVER THE WESTERN COUNTIES AND ASSOCIATED
CLOUD COVER AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE HAS HELPED DECREASE SEVERE
THREAT OUT WEST FOR THIS AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE SOUTHEASTERN
COUNTIES GENERALLY ALONG AND SE OF THE TURNPIKE REMAIN
CONSIDERABLY UNSTABLE /2000J/KG OR GREATER/ GIVEN DEWPOINTS IN THE
LOWER 70S WITH OVER 1.5 INCHES OF PW IN THE COLUMN. ENERGY
ROTATING THROUGH THE SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE WAVE ENHANCING
CONVECTION ACROSS SOUTHEAST KS AND NORTHERN OK AND MOVING
NORTHWARD WITH TIME. WILL BE A RACE BETWEEN THE EASTWARD ADVANCING
WAVE AND THE NORTHWARD PROPAGATION OF THE STORMS...BUT AT THIS
TIME APPEARS AT LEAST PORTIONS OF COFFEY ANDERSON AND FRANKLIN
COUNTIES SHOULD SEE A ROUND OF HEAVY RAINFALL WITH EMBEDDED STRONG
WINDS AND HAIL POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 342 AM CDT SAT JUN 15 2013

TODAY...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN TX PNHDL AND
WESTERN OK WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN KS THROUGH
THE DAY...AND NORTHEAST INTO NORTHERN MO AND SOUTHERN IA THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS.

DEEP GULF MOISTURE WILL BE IN PLACE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE CWA. A
WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN
COUNTIES OF THE CWA AND COMBINED WITH THE ASCENT AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING H5 TROUGH WILL CAUSE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE BEST
CHANCE FOR RAIN MAY BE IN THE VICINITY OF THE BOUNDARY ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA DURING THE MID AND LATE AFTERNOON HOURS.
THERE IS A CHANCE THAT A COMPLEX OF STORMS OR MCS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS
NORTHEAST KS AND SHIFT EAST-SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING
HOURS PROVIDING THE I-70 CORRIDOR FROM TOP TO MKC WITH A BETTER
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE EVENING HOURS.

THE SHORT-TERM MODELS SHOW 2500-3500 J/KG OF SBCAPE DEVELOPING
THROUGH THE MID AND LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. INITIALLY THE EFFECTIVE
SHEAR BETWEEN THE SFC AND MID LEVELS WILL BE AROUND 45 TO 50
KTS...BUT THIS IS FORECASTED TO WEAKEN TO 20 TO 30 KTS BY 00Z...AS
THE H5 TROUGH FILLS AND LIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS NORTHEAST KS. SOME OF
THE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING COULD BE STRONG TO
SEVERE....GIVEN THE GOOD INSTABILITY AND SOME VERTICAL WINDSHEAR.
THE PRIMARY HAZARD WILL BE DAMAGING OUTFLOW WINDS AND LARGE HAIL.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL BE AROUND 1.72 INCHES...THUS IF A
CLUSTER OF STORMS DEVELOPS OR THERE IS TRAINING OF
THUNDERSTORMS...THEN SOME MINOR FLOODING MAY OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING.

EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER AND THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES WILL KEEP AFTERNOON
HIGHS TODAY COOLER...WITH ONLY MID TO UPPER 80S EXPECTED. THOUGH
WITH THE DEEPER MOISTURE AND 70 DEGREE DEWPOINTS IT WILL FEEL MUGGY.

TONIGHT...AN MCS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS OF CENTRAL
CO...BUT THIS MCS MAY TRACK SOUTHWEST OF THE CWA. I KEPT LOW CHANCE
POPS IN AFTER MIDNIGHT SINCE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MAY
DEVELOP ALONG OR NORTH OF THE WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT SHOULD
EXTEND ALONG I-70. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 AM CDT SAT JUN 15 2013

CHANCES FOR ONGOING CONVECTION OVER THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
COUNTY WARNING AREA (CWA) WILL BE ON THE DECLINE EARLY SUNDAY...WITH
A GRADUAL INCREASE LATER IN THE AFTERNOON OVER THE WESTERN COUNTIES.
HAVE REFLECTED THIS TREND WITH A DRY FCST IN THE NORTH CENTRAL
SUNDAY MORNING THEN CARRIED AFTERNOON POPS WITH THE APPROACH OF THE
NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMERGING FROM THE HIGH PLAINS. THIS IS WHEN
THE LLVL FLOW WILL RAPIDLY BACK AND MOISTURE BEGINS TO SURGE BACK TO
THE NORTH. THIS IS ESPECIALLY THE CASE INTO THE EVENING HOURS AND
WOULD CONTRIBUTE TO MAINTAINING AN MCS DEVELOPMENT TO THE WEST.
IF THIS OCCURS...IT WOULD TRACK SOUTHEAST WITH THE
SOUTHERN/SOUTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA MOST AFFECTED THROUGH
THE NIGHT. HAVE THEREFORE MAINTAINED THE HIGHEST POPS
(LIKELY)...ACROSS THIS AREA...THEN RAPIDLY DECREASED POPS INTO
MONDAY. FELT POPS WERE ONLY WARRANTED ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN 1/3
OF THE CWA...PRIMARILY IN THE MORNING.

MUCH DRIER AIR WILL THEN CONTINUE TO FILTER INTO THE CWA MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS DEWPOINTS GRADUALLY FALL. AFTER HIGHS IN
THE 80S MONDAY...READINGS BY SUNRISE TUESDAY SHOULD BE IN THE LOWER
TO MIDDLE 60S WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. THE DRIER CONDITIONS WILL BE
TEMPORARY HOWEVER AS THE BUILDING UPPER RIDGE ACROSS PLAINS OCCURS
THROUGH MID WEEK RESULTING IN A RETURN FLOW WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE
AREA THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WORK WEEK. THIS PATTERN WOULD ALSO
FAVOR DAILY CONVECTION DEVELOPING TO THE WEST AND MOVING EASTWARD
THROUGH THE NIGHT. THIS WOULD PRIMARILY FAVOR THE WEDNESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT TIMEFRAME AS A WARM FRONT TRIES TO LIFT NORTHWARD
ACROSS THE AREA AS WELL. WILL THEREFORE KEEP HIGHS MORE IN CHECK
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NORTH OF THE FRONT...THEN INCREASE INTO THE 85
TO 90 DEGREE RANGE THURSDAY BEFORE RAISING TO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE
90S ALL AREAS FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1224 PM CDT SAT JUN 15 2013

WILL KEEP JUST VCTS FOR TOP/FOE WITH ENOUGH UNCERTAINTY THIS FAR
EAST AND A TEMPO GROUP FOR MHK. AS WAVE PASSES CHANCES FOR PRECIP
END QUICKLY AND WILL NOT CARRY PRECIP AFTER 00/02Z AT THIS TIME.
SHOWERS AT MHK COULD BRING BRIEF HEAVY RAIN.


&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...67
SHORT TERM...GARGAN
LONG TERM...63
AVIATION...67