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000
FXUS63 KTOP 141150
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
650 AM CDT TUE MAY 14 2013

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 341 AM CDT TUE MAY 14 2013

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES AN AREA OF BROAD ANTICYCLONIC FLOW
WITHIN THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS...DEFINING THE AREA OF MID
LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE INTERIOR WESTERN STATES. EXPECT THIS MID
LEVEL RIDGE TO BECOME CLOSE TO CENTERED OVER THE CWA BY MID DAY
MONDAY...BRINGING SOME LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE...KEEPING SKIES MOSTLY
CLEAR THROUGH THE DAY. AS A LOW FORMS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS
STRONG SOUTHWESTERN WINDS WILL PICK UP THROUGH THE DAY ON TUESDAY
BRINGING A PUNCH OF DRY LOW LEVEL AIR INTO THE AREA. MODEL SOUNDINGS
SHOW THAT DEEP MIXING...TO AROUND 650 MB WILL OCCUR THROUGH THE
DAY...FURTHER DRYING OUT AN ALREADY DRY BOUNDARY LAYER (SEE FIRE
WEATHER DISCUSSION BELOW). THE DEEP MIXING...IN COMBINATION WITH
STRONG INSOLATION AND A DRY BOUNDARY LAYER WILL AID IN OBTAINING THE
WARMEST TEMPERATURES OF THE YEAR SO FAR. EXPECT DAYTIME HIGHS TO
REACH WELL INTO THE 90S...WITH SOME LOCATIONS PERHAPS REACHING THE
MIDDLE 90S ON TUESDAY. TUESDAY NIGHT WILL REMAIN RATHER WARM...AS
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP THE BOUNDARY LAYER SOMEWHAT
MIXED. EXPECT OVERNIGHT LOWS TO REMAIN IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S.

JL

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 341 AM CDT TUE MAY 14 2013

WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...A WEAK SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE TX PANHANDLE EAST ACROSS OK INTO AR.
DEEPER MOISTURE RETURN COMBINED WITH SOME SYNOPTIC SCALE ASCENT
ALONG THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL DEFORMATION ZONE ON THE NORTH SIDE OF
THE UPPER LOW WILL PROVIDE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE CWA. THE NAM MODEL SHOW A WEAK COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
NORTHERN COUNTIES OF THE CWA WHICH MAY PROVIDE ENHANCED ASCENT IN THE
ZONE OF SFC CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT. THE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
LOOKS VERY WEAK DESPITE SBCAPE VALUES OF AROUND 2,000 J/KG...THUS
STORMS SHOULD NOT BE WELL ORGANIZED. A PULSE STORM COULD PRODUCE
PENNY SIZE HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING HOURS. AS THE SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER LOW SHIFT EAST
INTO NORTHERN AR AND FILLS...THE RAIN CHANCES SHOULD DECREASE FROM
WEST TO EAST. HIGHS WEDNESDAY WILL REACH THE LOWER TO MID 80S.

THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST
INTO THE WESTERN US. A DOWN STREAM UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY
ACROSS THE PLAINS. A LEE SURFACE TROUGH WILL DEEPEN ACROSS THE HIGH
PLAINS...RESULTING IN SOUTH-SOUTHEAST LOW-LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE PLAINS.
THE SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL ADVECT DEEPER GULF MOISTURE
NORTH-NORTHWEST ACROSS CENTRAL OK INTO WEST CENTRAL KS. AN EML
SHOULD PROVIDE ENOUGH OF A CAP TO KEEP THE FORECAST DRY. I KEPT
SLIGHT POPS GOING JUST IN CASE THERE MAY BE ENOUGH ISENTROPIC LIFT
FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY AT NIGHT. THE
BEST CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE ALONG THE
DRYLINE IN WEST CENTRAL KS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS. MOST OF THESE STORMS SHOULD DISSIPATE BEFORE MOVING INTO
THE CWA...THOUGH A FEW MAY MOVE INTO NORTH CENTRAL KS AFTER
MIDNIGHT. HIGHS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL REACH THE LOWER TO MID
80S.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...THE H5 TROUGH ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS WILL
MOVE EAST INTO CO AND NM BY 00Z SUN. A DRYLINE WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS
WESTERN KS INTO WEST CENTRAL KS BY AFTERNOON. SFC CONVERGENCE ALONG
THE DRY LINE COMBINED WITH ASCENT AHEAD OF THE H5 TROUGH AXIS SHOULD
ALLOW THE CAP TO BREAK ALONG THE DRYLINE. THE ENVIRONMENT WITHIN THE
WARM SECTOR WILL HAVE MLCAPE AROUND 3,000 J/KG ALONG WITH SUFFICIENT
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR FOR SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP. SOME OF
THESE SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS MAY MOVE INTO THE NORTHWEST COUNTIES
OF THE CWA AFTER SUNSET. THE PRIMARY HAZARD FROM ANY SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE WESTERN COUNTIES OF THE CWA WILL BE LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING OUTFLOW WINDS. AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES SLOWLY
EAST...THE STRONGER ASCENT ACROSS EASTERN KS WILL CAUSE SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP THROUGH THE NIGHT. DURING THE
LATE EVENING AND EARLY MORNING HOURS OF SUNDAY...MOST OF THE STORMS
SHOULD BECOME ELEVATED AND THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE
LARGE HAIL. HIGHS SATURDAY WILL REACH THE MID TO UPPER 80S ACROSS
THE CWA

AS THE H5 TROUGH MOVES EAST ACROSS KS A SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CWA SUNDAY AFTERNOON. A LINE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT. THE LOW-LEVEL WINDS
AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL VEER BUT THERE MAY BE ENOUGH VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR COMBINED WITH MODERATE CAPE FOR STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS. THE PRIMARY HAZARDS WILL BE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND
LARGE HAIL SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE LINE OF STORMS WILL PUSH
SOUTHEAST OF THE CWA BY 00Z MON. HIGHS SUNDAY WILL BE DEPENDENT ON
THE SPEED OF THE SURFACE COLD FRONT. HIGHS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL
REACH THE LOWER TO MID 80S...WHILE NORTHWEST OF THE FRONT HIGHS
MAY ONLY REACH THE MID 70S.

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...A SECONDARY UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIG
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND THEN MOVE
EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. THE COLD
FRONT WILL BECOME STATIONARY ALONG THE KS AND OK BORDER WHILE THE
850MB WINDS INCREASE AND BACK TO THE SOUTH. THIS WILL PROVIDE STRONG
ISENTROPIC LIFT ACROSS MUCH OF EASTERN KS...COMBINED WITH A 50KT H5
JET MAX LIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS EASTERN KS ON MONDAY. IF THE 00Z
ECMWF SOLUTION WERE TO VERIFY RAIN AND ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
DEVELOP ACROSS THE CWA MONDAY AND CONTINUE INTO MONDAY NIGHT. SOME
OF THESE ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE LARGE HAIL AND WE COULD
SEE WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL. THE GFS MODEL SHOWS MORE OF A PHASED
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SOLUTION...WITH THE MAIN H5 TROUGH AXIS
LIFTING OUT ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. IF
THE GFS SOLUTION WERE TO VERIFY THE GREATER CHANCE FOR HEAVIER
RAINFALL AND SEVERE WHATEVER WOULD BE EAST OF THE CWA. HIGHS WILL
BE COOLER WITH CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS AND CLOUD COVER. HIGHS
WILL ONLY REACH THE MID TO UPPER 70S.

GARGAN

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 646 AM CDT TUE MAY 14 2013

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE WITH INCREASING SOUTHWEST WINDS
SUSTAINED AT 20 TO 25 MPH...WITH GUSTS UP TO 30. WINDS WILL TAPER
OFF AFTER SUNSET.

JL

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 646 AM CDT TUE MAY 14 2013

THE SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL PICK UP THROUGH THE DAY REACHING SUSTAINED
LEVELS OF AROUND 20 TO 25 MPH...WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH. EXPECT RH
VALUES TO DROP DRAMATICALLY AFTER SUNRISE AS THE ATMOSPHERE BEGINS
TO DEEPLY MIX OUT. EXPECT THE MIXING HEIGHTS TO PERHAPS REACH 8-10
KFT BY MID DAY. THE DEEP MIXING ALONG WITH THE DRY SW WINDS AND VERY
WARM TEMPERATURES WILL CAUSE THE RH VALUES TO DROP TO 15-20 PERCENT
ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS...AND BETWEEN 20-25 PERCENT
ACROSS FAR EASTERN KANSAS. DUE TO FUELS ACROSS THE AREA NOT BEING IN
THE CRITICAL STATUS...HAVE HELD OFF ON ANY HEADLINES FOR FIRE
DANGER...AND THE FORECAST WILL INDICATE VERY HIGH FIRE DANGER ACROSS
THE ENTIRE AREA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS OPPOSED TO EXTREME FIRE
DANGER.

JL

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JL
LONG TERM...GARGAN
AVIATION...LEIGHTON
FIRE WEATHER...LEIGHTON