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000
FXUS63 KTOP 132025
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
325 PM CDT MON MAY 13 2013

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT MON MAY 13 2013

SOUTHERLY WINDS AND SUNNY SKIES ACROSS THE AREA HELP BOOST
TEMPERATURES TOWARD 80 TODAY. UPPER RIDGE JUST TO OUR WEST BRINGING
HIGH TEMPS INTO THE 90S ACROSS WESTERN AND PARTS OF CENTRAL
KANSAS...WHICH WILL MOVE OUR WAY TOMORROW.

FOR TONIGHT EXPECT OVERNIGHT LOWS TO HOLD AROUND 60 AS THE STRONG
WARM AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES.  WENT SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN GUIDANCE
FOR LOWS AND AGAIN FOR HIGHS...AS A MIX TO ABOUT 850 BRINGS HIGHS TO
THE MIDDLE 90S ALONG/NORTH OF I70 WITH LOWER 90S SOUTH.  MAIN
CONCERN FOR TOMORROW IS FIRE WEATHER...SEE FIRE WEATHER SECTION FOR
DETAILS.  WINDS ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF THE AREA ARE EXPECTED
TO CLIMB TO AROUND 25 MPH WITH GUSTS 30 TO 35 POSSIBLE.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT MON MAY 13 2013

OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN MUCH OF THE MEDIUM AND EXTENDED RANGE IS NOT
HIGH. MODEL DIFFERENCES ARE APPARENT BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
PERSIST IF NOT AMPLIFY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

THE SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER WAVE OVER BAJA TODAY MEANDERS NORTHEAST
INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WEDNESDAY AS A NORTHERN STREAM COLD FRONT
SINKS IN. THE TIMING AND LOCATION OF THE UPPER WAVE IS NOT IDEAL FOR
AIDING CONVECTION...AND IT IN FACT COULD PROVIDE SOME SUBSIDENCE AS
IT PASSES THROUGH IN THE AFTERNOON. THE LOCATION OF THE FRONT IS
ALSO UNCERTAIN...THOUGH EVEN THE FARTHER NORTH 12Z ECMWF WOULD KEEP
NORTHWESTERN LOCATIONS ON THE DRY SIDE. WILL KEEP PRECIP CHANCES IN
THE CHANCE RANGE WITH CONVERGENCE QUESTIONS ALONG THE FRONT AS WELL.
THE TRACK AND SPEED OF THE UPPER LOW AROUND 35N/130W TODAY IS THE
NEXT POINT OF CONTENTION. THE 12Z NAM TAKES THIS FEATURE NORTHEAST
INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS WEDNESDAY...WHILE RECENT GFS AND ECMWF RUNS
TAKE IT WEST INTO THE LOCAL AREA THURSDAY. THE FRONT WEAKENS AS THIS
OCCURS...BUT WITH THE WAVE AND INCREASED MOISTURE...WILL KEEP SOME
SMALL CHANCES IN PLACE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT.

THE NEXT DISCREPANCY COMES WITH THE TIMING AND INTENSITY OF THE
NEGATIVELY TILTED TROF OVER THE WEEKEND. THE GFS REMAINS ON THE FAST
SIDE WITH THE ECMWF SLOWER. EVEN THE FASTER GFS SHOULD KEEP MUCH OF
THE EASTERN COUNTIES DRY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...AND THE SLOWER SIDE
MAY KEEP THE WESTERN COUNTIES IN LESS OF A CONCERN WITH THE EAST
FAVORED FOR SUNDAY. AGAIN MODERATE CHANCE POPS WILL BE IN PLACE FOR
THE AREA FOR MUCH OF THE WEEKEND...AND SHEAR AND INSTABILITY
PARAMETERS SUGGEST AT LEAST ONE ROUND OF SEVERE WEATHER BEING
POSSIBLE. HOW FAST THE DEVELOPING NORTHERN PLAINS UPPER LOW
TRANSLATES EAST WILL PLAY INTO MONDAYS WEATHER...IN EITHER KEEPING
EASTERN KANSAS IN THE WARM SECTOR OR IN COLD AIR ADVECTION. A SLIGHT
COOL-DOWN WILL BE INCLUDED WITH STILL SOME THUNDER MENTION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1231 PM CDT MON MAY 13 2013

VFR CONDITIONS FORECAST AT KTOP/KFOE/KMHK WITH WINDS THE PRIMARY
FOCUS. LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS AOB 10 KTS GRADUALLY VEER TO THE
SOUTHWEST AFTER SUNSET. THERE IS A SLIGHT INDICATION OF POSSIBLE
LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. HOWEVER BELIEVE THE
WINDS AT THE SURFACE SHOULD STAY STRONG ENOUGH TO NOT INCLUDE.
WILL REVIEW THIS AT THE NEXT ISSUANCE.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT MON MAY 13 2013

GUSTY WINDS WITH WARM TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL BRING
VERY HIGH FIRE DANGER ACROSS OUR WESTERN COUNTIES FOR TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. WINDS EXPECTED IN THE 25 MPH RANGE WITH GUSTS 30-35
POSSIBLE. RH VALUES DROP BELOW 25 PERCENT BY 3PM ACROSS WESTERN AND
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. CALLS TO LOCAL LAND MANAGERS AND
EMERGENCY MANAGERS INDICATE THAT GRASSES ARE GREENING UP QUICKLY AND
ARE NOT EXPECTED TO READILY CARRY EXTREME FIRE BEHAVIOR. EXPECT VERY
HIGH FIRE DANGER BUT NOT INTO THE CRITICAL CATEGORY AT THIS TIME.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...67
LONG TERM...65
AVIATION...BOWEN
FIRE WEATHER...67