000
FXUS63 KTOP 170441
AFDTOP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1141 PM CDT SUN JUN 16 2013

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 PM CDT SUN JUN 16 2013

TRICKY FORECAST FOR THE FIRST 12-24 HOURS WITH MANY FACTORS IN PLAY
FOR CONVECTION POTENTIAL...AND DIFFERENCES IN GUIDANCE AS TO
HOW/WHERE/WHEN STORMS EVOLVE.  CURRENTLY VERY LITTLE CIN OVER THE
FORECAST AREA WITH AN AREA OF GENERALLY 1500-2000J/KG CAPE BISECTING
THE FA FROM NW TO SE.  BULK SHEAR HOWEVER IS QUITE LOW...LESS THAN
10KTS WITHIN THE FIRST 15KFT PER NAM SOUNDINGS.  PER CU FIELD ON
VISIBLE AND WINDS IN OBS WOULD APPEAR THAT BOUNDARY HAS MADE IT
SOUTH OF EMPORIA...WITH SOME WEAK WIND CONVERGENCE JUST SOUTH. NOT
CONFIDENT OF DEVELOPMENT ON THIS BOUNDARY BUT WILL LEAVE A SLIGHT
CHANCE SOUTH AND WEST TO ACCOUNT FOR PROBABILITY.

STARTING TO SEE CONVECTION DEVELOP IN SW NEBRASKA AS WELL AS FAR SW
SOUTH DAKOTA AT THIS HOUR. MOISTURE AXIS AND CORFIDI VECTORS
INDICATE THESE STORMS WOULD MOVE TO THE EAST TO SOUTHEAST WITH
TIME...BECOMING A CLUSTER AND MOVING ACROSS WESTERN AND PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL KANSAS. HOW FAR EASTWARD THEY CAN DEVELOP IS IN
QUESTION...WITH THE NAM/GFS/EC TAKING THE BRUNT OF THE QPF MAINLY
WEST OF OUR FORECAST AREA.  LAST FEW RUNS OF THE HRRR BRING A SQUALL
LINE ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA GENERALLY 9PM TO AFTER
MIDNIGHT.  THINK THE EARLIER SCENARIO IS MORE LIKELY AND WILL TAKE
MOST OF THE LLJ ENERGY INTO THE WESTERNMOST STORM COMPLEX...THINKING
WON`T BE ABLE TO DEVELOP A LINE OF STORMS FURTHER EAST BACK TOWARD
THE COOLER AIR. ONCE AGAIN WILL GO WITH CHANCE POPS TO THE WEST AND
DECREASE CHANCES EAST...BUT NOT WILLING TO TAKE POPS OUT FAR EAST
JUST YET GIVEN MODEL DIFFERENCES.  ENOUGH INSTABILITY WITH A LINE OF
STORMS TO MAKE WIND AND HEAVY RAIN A CONCERN...BUT SHEAR PROFILES
NOT AS FAVORABLE FOR LOW LEVEL ROTATION. STORMS MOVE EASTWARD
QUICKLY AND HAVE A DRY FORECAST ALL AREAS BY AFTERNOON. HAVE LOWS IN
THE 60S TONIGHT WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S ON MONDAY...COOLER SE WHERE
CLOUDS AND RAIN MAY LINGER A FEW HOURS INTO THE MORNING MONDAY. 67

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 PM CDT SUN JUN 16 2013

MID RANGE AND EXTENDED FORECAST (TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...

EXPECT LARGE SCALE RIDGING TO TAKE PLACE IN THE MID RANGE TO
EXTENDED PERIOD OF THE FORECAST...WHICH WILL LIKELY SPELL A
CONSISTENT PERIOD OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE END OF
THE WORK WEEK AND THROUGH NEXT THE WEEKEND. HIGHS WILL LIKELY
REACH THE MID TO UPPER 90S...HOWEVER AS THAT TIME PERIOD
APPROACHES AND MODELS CONTINUE CONSISTENCY IN BRINGING IN THE MID
LEVEL RIDGE PERHAPS WE COULD SEE TEMPERATURES LATE IN THE WEEK AND
THIS WEEKEND REACH THE TRIPLE DIGIT MARK...ESPECIALLY IN THE
WESTERN ZONES WHERE MOISTURE COULD BE A LITTLE HARDER TO COME BY.
PRECIP CHANCES THROUGH THE EXTENDED WILL BE TOUGH TO NAIL
DOWN...AS THERE ARE NO REAL STRONG MID LEVEL SIGNALS TO REALLY
TRACK FOR PRECIP. THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIP DOES LOOK LIKE IT
WILL TAKE PLACE IN THE MID TO LATE PART OF THE WEEK AS MODELS HINT
AT SOME STRONG CONVECTION TAKING PLACE OFF THE HIGH PLAINS...AND
DRAGGING THE CONVECTION EASTWARD THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE
POSITION OF THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AND THE SUBSEQUENT STEERING FLOW
WILL LIKELY DETERMINE THE EXACT TRACK OF THE PRECIP. SHOULD THE
RIDGE BECOME LESS AMPLIFIED THE W-SW STEERING FLOW MAY END UP OVER
THE FORECAST AREA...HOWEVER SHOULD THE RIDGE BE A LITTLE STRONGER
THAN ANTICIPATED IT WOULD SHUNT THE CONVECTION NORTH. EITHER
WAY...WILL MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS FOR THE WED NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
TIME FRAME FOR THESE SHOWERS. OTHERWISE...THE MAINLY DRY AND WARM
FORECAST DESCRIBED ABOVE WILL BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE EXTENDED.

JL

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1141 PM CDT SUN JUN 16 2013

FOR THE 06Z TAFS...TWO AREAS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUED
TO DEVELOP ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS...TRACKING SOUTH AND EAST INTO
SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS. AS THESE TWO AREAS MERGE TOGETHER...MAY SEE
MORE SCATTERED ACTIVITY OVER CENTRAL AND EAST CENTRAL KANSAS THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING HOW LONG THIS
ACTIVITY WILL PERSIST INTO THE MORNING HOURS. DRY CONDITIONS
EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS WITH LIGHT NORTHEASTERLY
WINDS.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...67
LONG TERM...LEIGHTON
AVIATION...HENNECKE