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000
FXUS64 KTSA 222029
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
329 PM CDT WED MAY 22 2013

.DISCUSSION...
REMNANTS OF OLD FRONT...ESSENTIALLY A DEW POINT BOUNDARY...REMAINS
ACROSS PARTS OF CNTRL/SNCTRL TX THIS AFTERNOON. THIS FEATURE IS
EXPECTED TO LIFT BACK N TONIGHT AS LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE SURGES
N...WITH EFFECTIVE BOUNDARY DEVELOPING NEAR THE RED RIVER BY EARLY
THURSDAY. SHOULD SEE SOME ELEVATED CONVECTION DEVELOP TO THE N OF
THE BOUNDARY LATE TONIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY...AND SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY
COULD MOVE INTO WRN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA. WILL KEEP LOW PRECIP
CHANCES MAINLY WEST OF HIGHWAY 75 THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT...AS SURFACE RIDGE POSITION FAVORS BEST MOISTURE RETURN TO OUR
WEST.

UPPER RIDGE EXPECTED TO BREAK DOWN SOME OVER THE WEEKEND AS SEVERAL
WEAK WAVES MOVE THROUGH. VEERING LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL SHUNT BETTER
MOISTURE EWD...AND WILL CONTINUE WITH GENERAL 30/40 POPS FOR MUCH
THE REGION SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.

LOW POPS WILL PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH THE UPPER RIDGE
EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM BACK WELL INTO THE 80S FOR NEXT WEEK...WITH
VERY MILD OVERNIGHT LOWS. STUCK FAIRLY CLOSE TO A GFS/ECMWF BLEND
FOR TEMPS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   56  79  58  78 /   0  20  10  20
FSM   60  80  58  78 /   0  10  10  10
MLC   59  79  63  79 /   0  20  10  20
BVO   51  76  54  78 /   0  20  10  20
FYV   52  76  54  74 /   0  10  10  10
BYV   53  76  51  73 /   0  10  10  10
MKO   58  78  59  78 /   0  20  10  20
MIO   54  76  54  77 /   0  10  10  10
F10   58  79  60  79 /  10  20  10  20
HHW   61  83  65  80 /   0  20  10  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...12
LONG TERM....18