339
FXUS64 KTSA 061829
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
129 PM CDT Mon May 6 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Late afternoon into tonight)
Issued at 128 PM CDT Mon May 6 2024

...SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER EXPECTED LATE AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...

We are on the cusp of a significant severe event across eastern and
western Arkansas. With the cap already eroding across much of the
area, the potential for isolated severe storms already exists. Per
latest meso analysis, CAPE values are in 1500 to 2000 J/KG range across
much of southeast Oklahoma into western Arkansas where the cap has eroded.
The cap will likely weaken considerably over the next couple of hours
across the last stronghold of NE Oklahoma. As mentioned before, any
isolated storm that develops later this afternoon will have the potential
to become severe with more than adequate instability and deep layer shear
in place. All modes of severe weather possible.

The more significant severe weather is expected mainly this evening and
into the overnight hours as all the ingredients come together. The airmass
is expected to become more unstable as we move into the evening as will
the deep layer shear as the low level jet increases. Scattered thunderstorms
are forecast to develop near the dryline across western Oklahoma this
afternoon and become severe rapidly in the primed environment. This activity
will likely spread into eastern Oklahoma this evening with the storms
forming in into a line over time and moving east across the area. Any of the storms
that can remain discrete this evening will have the potential to produce a significant
long track tornado and giant hail. However, the potential for tornadoes will continue
within the line of storms as well. In addition to the tornadoes, wind gusts of around
75 mph and hail to around 2 inches in diameter will be possible.

With recent rains saturating the ground, flash flooding will also be a concern with
1 to 3 inches of rain possible in a short period of time. Went ahead and issued a
Flood Watch for much of northeast Oklahoma for tonight to highlight where the heaviest
rains are forecast. The thunderstorms are expected to exit the region by Tuesday mid-morning,


&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Monday)
Issued at 128 PM CDT Mon May 6 2024

Tuesday is expected to be a relatively quiet day weather-wise across eastern Oklahoma and
western Arkansas as weak high pressure prevails. The next chance of storms will come
on Wednesday as a cold front moves through the region. These storms will likely fire
up earlier in the day near the cold front approaching Highway 75 in eastern Oklahoma
by early afternoon. All modes of severe weather will be possible as this system moves
through the area as well.

Dry weather is forecast later in the week and into the weekend with temperatures near
normal for this time of year. Shower and storm chances increase late in the weekend
with the approach of a mid-level shortwave.


&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 1121 AM CDT Mon May 6 2024

Vsbys/cigs reduced to brief periods of IFR/VLIFR with in fog
early in the valid period. VFR vsbys expected after 14z, and cigs
will rise to VFR categories by early afternoon. Storms will impact
the NE OK sites this evening with a period of IFR vsbys and MVFR
cigs in +TSRA in the 02z-06z time frame. VFR elements are expected
to prevail at those sites after 06z. Further south and east,
timing and duration of convection is a bit more uncertain. Will
include a prob30 group at KMLC from 04-09z, and tempo groups at
the NW AR sites from 04z-08z(05z-09z KFSM), with MVFR cigs to
prevail through the remainder of the period at all AR sites.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   59  83  61  83 /  80  10  10  30
FSM   69  86  65  87 /  80  10   0  60
MLC   67  85  66  86 /  70  10   0  30
BVO   55  81  56  81 /  80  10  10  20
FYV   64  83  61  83 /  80  10  10  70
BYV   64  82  59  82 /  80  10   0  70
MKO   64  81  61  84 /  90  10  10  50
MIO   61  80  58  80 /  90  10  10  60
F10   63  82  62  85 /  80  10  10  30
HHW   69  84  66  85 /  40  10  10  30

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Flood Watch from 7 PM CDT this evening through Tuesday morning
     for OKZ054>067.

AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM....10
AVIATION...23