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000
FXUS64 KTSA 151101
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
601 AM CDT WED MAY 15 2013

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FORECAST TO SPREAD INTO SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA BY LATE MORNING...SPREADING ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE
AREA THIS AFTERNOON. MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE
STRONGER STORMS. CEILINGS WILL BEGIN TO DROP OVERNIGHT WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR IFR CONDITIONS TOWARDS MORNING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 300 AM CDT WED MAY 15 2013/

DISCUSSION...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONGOING THIS MORNING ACROSS PORTIONS
OF CENTRAL TEXAS...AND WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD
THE AREA TODAY. THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD MOVE INTO THE
AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS...ALTHOUGH PARTS OF
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA MAY SEE SOME DURING THE MORNING. INCREASED
CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION WILL KEEP AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES COOLER
THAN THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS...ALTHOUGH NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS SHOULD STILL REACH NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS.
THERE IS A CHANCE THAT THE EXTRA /RELATIVE/ HEATING IN NORTHERN
PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA COULD COMBINE WITH INCREASED MOISTURE
TO RESULT IN ISOLATED MARGINALLY SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT DURING
THE AFTERNOON...PRIMARILY DUE TO COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT. THE BEST
CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD RAIN IN THE SHORT TERM WILL BE TONIGHT...AS
THE UPPER LOW MOVES ACROSS OKLAHOMA AND ARKANSAS...WITH A DECREASE
FROM WEST TO EAST THEREAFTER.

SOMEWHAT DRIER CONDITIONS AND WARMING TEMPERATURES ARRIVE FOR
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL LIKELY BE VERY SIMILAR
TO YESTERDAYS...WITH WIDESPREAD UPPER 80S/NEAR 90 PROBABLE. THERE
IS A SMALL CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT SATURDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING NEAR THE DRYLINE IN WESTERN OKLAHOMA AS AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES OVERHEAD. IF THIS DEVELOPMENT
OCCURS...THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR AREAS GENERALLY ALONG AND WEST OF
HIGHWAY 75 IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA TO BE AFFECTED.

BETTER CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS/STORMS ARRIVE DURING THE
SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS...AND CONTINUE POSSIBLY INTO
TUESDAY. THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE SLOWLY INTO THE PLAINS
REGION LATE SUNDAY/EARLY MONDAY...AND DRYLINE DEVELOPMENT IS AGAIN
POSSIBLE...ALTHOUGH IT LOOKS TO BE MORE WIDESPREAD THAN ON
SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. THE UPPER FORCING WILL BE STRONGEST
OVER NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND INTO NORTHWEST ARKANSAS...SO BEST
COVERAGE AND SEVERE POTENTIAL SHOULD BE IN THESE AREAS. ADDITIONAL
STORMS/SEVERE POTENTIAL DURING THE MONDAY/TUESDAY TIME FRAME WILL
BE TIED TO THE TIMING OF THE ATTENDANT COLD FRONT. THE ECMWF
CONTINUES TO BE THE SLOWEST WITH THIS FEATURE...WITH THE CURRENT
RUN EVEN SLOWER THAN IT HAS BEEN. WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THE
MONDAY AFTERNOON TO MONDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME WITH THIS FORECAST
PACKAGE...BUT NOTE THAT IF THE SLOWER TREND CONTINUES...THIS COULD
SLIP INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...12