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000
FXUS64 KTSA 191148
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
648 AM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
VFR WITH SCT TO BKN CLOUD 3 TO 5 THOUSAND FEET THROUGH
MID/LATE AFTERNOON. VIOLENT THUNDER DEVELOPING VICINITY
KBVO/KTUL/KRVS 23Z-01Z CONTINUING SEVERAL HOURS AFTERWARD.
THUNDER REACHING NORTHWEST ARKANSAS SITES KXNA/KFYV IN
04Z-07Z TIMEFRAME.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 354 AM CDT SUN MAY 19 2013/

DISCUSSION...
WELL-ADVERTISED PERIOD OF SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER BEGINS LATER
TODAY AS A 120 KT JET ANALYZED OVER NRN CA/SRN OR AT 00Z
TRANSLATES SEWRD ACROSS THE SRN ROCKIES INTO THE SRN PLAINS.
ATTENDANT NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH ROTATES ACROSS THE REGION LATER
TODAY. LATEST ANALYSES INDICATE VERY STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
AND RICH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ALREADY IN PLACE. DRY LINE ONCE AGAIN
EXPECTED TO SHARPEN THIS AFTERNOON TO OUR WEST WITH THUNDERSTORMS
INITIATING ON IT LATE THIS AFTERNOON. LATEST MODEL DATA SUGGESTS
IT WILL MIX FURTHER EAST THAN YESTERDAY...POSSIBLY NEAR THE I-35
CORRIDOR. CURRENT THOUGHT IS THAT STORMS WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT NWRN
PORTIONS OF ERN OK AFTER 5 PM AS CAP KEEPS SFC-BASED STORMS AT BAY
UNTIL RATHER LATE. VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS AHEAD OF THE DRY LINE
OVER ERN OK WITH CAPE ON THE ORDER OF 3-4K J/KG AND STRONG DEEP
LAYER SHEAR SHOULD ENSURE RAPID SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.
SUPERCELLS WITH ALL MODES OF SEVERE WEATHER INCLUDING VERY LARGE
HAIL LARGER THAN BASEBALLS AS WELL AS SIGNIFICANT TORNADOES WILL
BE POSSIBLE AS LOW LEVEL SHEAR/HELICITY INCREASES THIS EVENING
ACROSS ERN OK. ALL MODELS HINT THAT CAP WILL LIMIT CONVECTION
THROUGH TONIGHT ACROSS SRN PORTION OF THE REGION. BEST COVERAGE OF
STORMS TONIGHT WILL BE ACROSS NERN OK AND FAR NWRN AR.

SETUP WILL BE QUITE SIMILAR ON MONDAY WITH DRY LINE INITIATING
STORMS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON. REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM
TONIGHT`S STORMS WILL ALSO BE A FACTOR FOR STORM REDEVELOPMENT
LATER IN THE DAY WHERE EVER IT SETTLES. VERY UNSTABLE CONDITIONS
WITH STRONG DEEP LAYER AND LOW LEVEL SHEAR WILL AGAIN SUPPORT
SUPERCELL STORM STRUCTURES WITH ALL MODES OF SEVERE WEATHER
POSSIBLE. A PERIOD OF VERY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO LIKELY OCCUR
MONDAY NIGHT WITH SOME FLOODING BECOMING POSSIBLE.

MODELS SUGGEST THE MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL TRANSLATE ACROSS THE SRN
PLAINS ON TUESDAY WITH ITS ATTENDANT COLD FRONT FINALLY PROGRESSING
EWRD. HIGH CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY
SOUTH AND EAST WITH SEVERE POTENTIAL CONTINUING.

ANOTHER TROUGH DEVELOPS INTO THE WRN CONUS MID WEEK RESULTING IN
ZONAL FLOW BEHIND THE FIRST SYSTEM TO BECOME MORE SOUTHWESTERLY
AGAIN. HEIGHTS BUILD SLOWLY OVER THE PLAINS AND LEE SFC TROUGH
STRENGTHENS ALLOWING MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR TO RETURN BACK TO THE
REGION BY THURSDAY. LOW POPS AND NEAR CLIMO TEMPS WERE FORECAST
WITH THIS EXPECTED PATTERN THU-SAT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   89  69  84  67 /  30  70  50  80
FSM   91  69  87  69 /  10  40  30  70
MLC   88  72  85  70 /  20  20  20  70
BVO   88  69  83  64 /  40  80  60  80
FYV   86  67  83  68 /  10  60  30  80
BYV   87  66  82  67 /  10  70  30  80
MKO   88  68  85  68 /  20  50  30  80
MIO   88  69  83  66 /  50  80  50  80
F10   87  69  85  69 /  20  50  40  70
HHW   88  70  86  71 /  10  20  20  60

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM....07
AVIATION...21