National Weather Service Text Product Display

Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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FXUS64 KTSA 150527
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1227 AM CDT WED MAY 15 2013

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
FOR THE 6Z TAFS... VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES
INTO AT LEAST MID DAY WEDNESDAY. WITH AN ONGOING STRONG LOW LEVEL
JET... LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL BE A CONCERN OVERNIGHT. CEILINGS
WILL LOWER DURING THE DAY AS CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS INCREASE.
MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE... ESPECIALLY AT KMLC AND OUR SITES
IN WESTERN ARKANSAS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 845 PM CDT TUE MAY 14 2013/

DISCUSSION...
CURRENT FORECAST IS PRETTY WELL ON TRACK. MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS
TO THE GRIDS TO BETTER REFLECT CURRENT TRENDS AND MODEL DATA. LOOKS
LIKE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BEGIN AFFECT PORTIONS OF EXTREME
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA LATE TONIGHT AS MID-LEVEL LOW TAKES SHAPE ACROSS
SOUTHWEST TEXAS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD
ON WEDNESDAY AS THE MID-LEVEL LOW EDGES CLOSER TO THE AREA.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 638 PM CDT TUE MAY 14 2013/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
FOR THE 0Z TAFS... VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL SITES FOR
THE ENTIRE 24 HOUR FORECAST PERIOD. RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE
AFTER 18Z AT SOUTHERN SITES.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 406 PM CDT TUE MAY 14 2013/

DISCUSSION...
WARMEST DAY OF THE YEAR SO FAR WITH 90+ IN TULSA.

PROLONGED PERIOD  OF SOUTH WINDS WILL ENHANCE LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE AREA THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS.
UPPER DISTURBANCE FROM  SOUTHWEST  WILL TAP MOIST
AIR FOR PRECIP WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY. SEVERE THUNDER
NOT EXPECTED.  MILD NIGHTS WITH HIGHER DEWPOINTS.

BROAD AND MUCH STRONGER UPPER TROUGH WITH EMBEDDED
IMPULSES WILL IMPACT OUR AREA LATE WEEKEND/MONDAY.
ECMWF FASTER AND STRONGER THAN GFS WITH ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT LATE SUNDAY.CONSENSUS WOULD BRING FRONT
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. BIG COOL DOWN POST FRONT.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...06

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