Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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000
FXUS64 KTSA 201130
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
530 AM CST Tue Feb 20 2018

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
Overall flight conditions will remain in the MVFR and IFR
category through most of the forecast period. Widespread showers
and thunderstorms continue to spread into eastern OK and wester AR
with increase in coverage anticipated through the morning. Strong
cold front staled over northeast OK early this morning will begin
to push south and move through all areas by late this afternoon.
Temperatures across northeast OK likely to fall below freezing
resulting in some light icing potential north of I-44 before
precip shifts southeast. Ceilings may improve across northeast OK
late in the forecast period.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 342 AM CST Tue Feb 20 2018/

DISCUSSION...
In the near term we`re becoming increasingly concerned with the
icing potential this morning across northwestern portions of our
forecast area. The cold front that had dropped south to the I-44
corridor this evening has lifting slowly north and currently
snakes through extreme southeast KS into far northeast and central
OK. Freezing surface temperatures aren`t too far away, with
readings in the 20s across southern KS. Higher res models have
struggled with the shallow cold air, although the NAM surface
temps seem to have a reasonable handle. Thus, expect colder air to
begin pushing southeast again this morning, with temps falling off
to near or a bit below freezing northwest of I-44. Latest radar is
showing an impressive area of convection across western OK, and
this activity will lift northeast into the morning. Have hoisted a
winter weather advisory for Osage and Pawnee counties for freezing
rain this morning through the early afternoon although we`ll need
to keep a very close eye on temp trends.

A deep moisture plume evident on WV imagery will maintain the very
unseasonably moist airmass today (PWs running around 1 to near 1.5
inches). Aforementioned convection across western and northern OK
along with additional activity along the eastward advancing cold
front will result in periods of heavy rainfall today and tonight.
The going flood watch looks good, with the possibility of 2 to 4
inches of rain across a large portion of eastern OK into western
AR. Colder air behind the front may result in the potential for
some light freezing rain late tonight/early Wednesday for parts
of far northeast OK and perhaps northwest AR before the precip
tapers off.

Precipitation is expected to return again to the area later Wed
afternoon and overnight as another wave lifts through the
southwesterly flow aloft. Depending on surface temperatures,
another round of light freezing rain will be possible across
northeast OK, mainly by Wednesday night into early Thursday.

The active southwesterly flow will persist for late week with
additional shots of heavy rainfall possible later Thursday and
into Friday/Saturday. We`ll likely need additional flood headlines
for later in the week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   66  27  39  31 / 100  20  30  40
FSM   68  44  44  39 /  90  90  60  60
MLC   67  36  39  35 / 100  70  50  60
BVO   42  23  36  27 /  90  10  20  40
FYV   65  34  40  35 / 100  90  50  50
BYV   66  32  38  33 /  90  90  50  50
MKO   66  33  42  34 / 100  70  40  50
MIO   63  26  39  31 / 100  50  20  50
F10   67  32  39  32 / 100  30  50  50
HHW   70  43  46  42 / 100 100  80  60

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Flood Watch through late tonight for OKZ049-053-058-062-063-
     067>076.

     Winter Weather Advisory until 3 PM CST this afternoon for OKZ054-
     059.

AR...Flood Watch through late tonight for ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-
     029.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...14
LONG TERM....18
AVIATION.....14


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