000
FXUS64 KTSA 162322
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
622 PM CDT Tue Apr 16 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Rest of today through tonight)
Issued at 237 PM CDT Tue Apr 16 2024

A Pacific cold front continues to march across eastern OK this
afternoon, as evident from latest surface analysis/obs as well as
satellite imagery. The front is expected to move into northwest AR
by mid-late afternoon. Although will maintain 15-20% PoPs across
far southeast OK and northwest AR through the remainder of the
afternoon, majority of convective allowing model data keep modest
to strong convective inhibition intact ahead of the frontal
boundary as it exits the CWA. This would suggest dry and
uneventful conditions through tonight. However, if a storm or two
is able to form and break through the inversion before the front
clears the CWA, the convection will be capable of producing large
hail and damaging wind gusts, with a non-zero threat of a
tornado.

Otherwise, gusty southwest winds, gusting up to 40 mph, will
persist through the late afternoon hours and will gradually
subside behind the frontal boundary this evening and overnight
tonight. The strongest gusts are occurring across portions of
northeast OK (generally along and north of I-44), where a Wind
Advisory remains in effect trough 5 PM CDT. Additionally, the
gusty winds have caused an uptick in elevated/near-critical fire
weather conditions, primarily across Osage and Pawnee counties
where relative humidity values have dropped below 20% behind the
cold front. This threat of enhanced wildfire spread will continue
through sunset before winds subside and dewpoint
temperatures/relative humidity increase. By mid-late evening, the
frontal boundary is expected to stall and perhaps even lift back
northward across southeast OK. The presence of the boundary will
keep low-level cloud cover in place along and south of the
boundary overnight tonight. Elsewhere, skies should remain mostly
clear and temperatures will drop into the low-mid 50s overnight
tonight.

Mejia

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Tuesday)
Issued at 237 PM CDT Tue Apr 16 2024

Wednesday will be a very warm day across eastern OK and western
AR as Tuesday’s frontal boundary lifts back north as a warm front
during the daytime. Strong WAA will allow temperatures to spike
into the mid-upper 80s for most locations, with a few spots
flirting with 90F, including the Tulsa metro. A stronger cold
front is still on track to push through the CWA Thursday afternoon
and early evening. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are
expected to develop along the front, though timing of convective
initiation is still somewhat uncertain at this time. There should
be sufficient moisture, instability, lift, and shear in place as
the front moves through. However, consensus in model soundings
indicate a fairly stout temperature inversion will also be in
place during the morning hours and into the afternoon, but breaking
by mid-late afternoon as the front enters southeast OK and
northwest/west-central AR. The severe thunderstorm threat will
increase if/once the inversion breaks. The primary threats with
any severe thunderstorm that is able to form will be large hail
and damaging wind gusts. Better details to come in later
forecasts.

Gusty northerly winds will develop in the wake of the front on
Thursday. Breezy northerly winds will continue through the
upcoming weekend before southerly winds return early next week.
Precipitation chances will increase again beginning Friday
evening/night due to a subtle shortwave trough approaching from
the west. Precip chances peak during the daytime Saturday into
Saturday evening, with lingering isolated showers and
thunderstorms into Sunday morning. Instability looks to be very
limited late in the week and through the upcoming weekend, with
best instability (1000 J/kg or less) confined to far southeast OK.
The severe thunderstorm threat appears to be very low at this
time.

Abnormally warm temperatures (10-15F above average) will continue
Wednesday and Thursday ahead of the cold front. Behind Thursday’s
front, temperatures drastically drop below seasonal average
through much of the upcoming weekend, with highs in the 60s and
lows generally in the low-mid 40s (coolest day on Saturday). A
warming trend will begin on Monday as southerly winds return, with
another cold front approaching Tuesday/Wednesday.

Mejia

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 618 PM CDT Tue Apr 16 2024

Gusty southwest winds will be ongoing at issuance, but gusts will
drop off within an hour or two, with LLWS developing mainly across
northeast OK and northwest AR through around 06z. Low clouds are
expected to spread north later tonight or early Wednesday morning
with MVFR ceilings at KMLC through the morning. Otherwise VFR
conditions are forecast.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   56  87  68  82 /   0   0  20  40
FSM   62  87  66  86 /   0  10  10  60
MLC   58  87  68  84 /   0  10  10  40
BVO   51  87  65  79 /   0   0  20  60
FYV   54  86  64  83 /   0   0  20  70
BYV   57  85  63  84 /   0   0  20  80
MKO   56  86  67  85 /   0  10  10  60
MIO   55  83  64  81 /   0   0  30  80
F10   56  87  68  86 /   0   0  10  30
HHW   64  83  67  84 /   0   0  10  40

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...67
LONG TERM....67
AVIATION...14