000
FXUS64 KTSA 152341
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
641 PM CDT Mon Apr 15 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight into Tuesday)
Issued at 214 PM CDT Mon Apr 15 2024

Aside from a few showers initially across southern OK, the main
focus for this afternoon and evening turns to the dryline out west
and then later an eastward moving Pacific front in association
with a strong upper system. CAMs and some global models show
development over the TX South Plains or western north TX with
isolated development possible north up the dryline near the TX
Panhandle/OK border region, and then increasing potential up into
SW KS closer to surface low. The activity to the south may
organize into an MCS that gradually weakens this evening as it
lifts northeast into southern OK. The MPAS and HRRR have shown a
signal for strong to near severe wind gusts coming out of the
northern fringe of the decaying MCS across eastern OK this
evening. Storms that develop farther north are not expected to
impact our area as they will likely miss our area to the north and
west. Another round of scattered showers and a few storms is
expected ahead of cold front after midnight across E OK, with this
activity then progressing east into western AR into Tuesday
morning. Severe threat will be pretty limited based on weak
instability, though some gusty winds are possible out of even
showers based the howling winds off the deck. Current data still
indicates afternoon storm development ahead of front will be east
of NW AR.

Skies will clear behind the morning showers and storms, and mixing
of strong SW winds aloft at the base of the advancing upper
low/trough will lead to a pretty windy day across the area. Gusts
near advisory criteria are likely, especially across NE OK and NW
AR. After discussions with neighboring offices, will hold off on
a headline issuance for now given borderline nature and storm
threat tonight.

Lacy

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday Night through Monday)
Issued at 214 PM CDT Mon Apr 15 2024

Quiet weather is expected Wednesday, but moisture return will be
underway as the Tuesday boundary washes out. A cold front will
advance southeast across the area Thursday in response to height
falls across the north-central CONUS. This front will impinge on
an increasingly moist and unstable airmass and yield an elevated
severe storm threat. Today`s data suggests this boundary will
stall over northern TX/ArkLaTex. After a lull in the action
Friday, warm advection north of this boundary and ahead of a
secondary cold frontal push from the north will lead to another
round of showers and storms Friday night into Saturday. Model QPF
signals suggest potential for locally heavy rainfall and possibly
some localized flooding as well. The secondary front will clear
things out by Sunday, and the start of next week will be below-
average cool. In fact, the typical cool valley sites across NE OK
and NW AR could drop into the 30s by next Monday morning.

Lacy

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 640 PM CDT Mon Apr 15 2024

Strong and gusty south winds will continue overnight as potent
upper level storm system lifts into the central Plains. Low
clouds will continue to spread north with MVFR ceilings likely
across eastern OK TAF sites by late evening, moving into NW
Arkansas Tuesday morning (12-15Z). Scattered showers will likely
develop after midnight across northeast Oklahoma ahead of dry
line/Pacific front with an isolated thunderstorm or two, mainly at
KBVO. Elsewhere, storm chances appear too low to include at this
time, although short term convective trends will continue to be
closely monitored. Clearing line forecast to be near the Highway
75 corridor around mid morning, pushing east of NW AR mid to late
afternoon. Gusty winds will persist behind boundary.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   66  85  56  85 /  70  30   0   0
FSM   66  82  62  87 /  50  60   0   0
MLC   67  85  58  86 /  60  30   0   0
BVO   63  83  52  83 /  70  30   0   0
FYV   63  80  57  84 /  50  60   0   0
BYV   65  78  60  82 /  40  50   0   0
MKO   66  82  57  83 /  60  40   0   0
MIO   65  81  55  80 /  50  60   0   0
F10   66  82  56  84 /  70  30   0   0
HHW   65  81  63  84 /  40  40   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM....30
AVIATION...12