000
FXUS64 KTSA 222325
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
625 PM CDT WED MAY 22 2013

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM.
FOR THE 0Z TAFS... VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT COMBINED WITH
RADIATIONAL COOLING AND WET GROUND WILL PROVIDE A GOOD CHANCE FOR
PATCHY DENSE FOG TO FORM IN NORTHWEST ARKANSAS TOWARD SUNRISE. ANY
FOG WILL DISSIPATE QUICKLY AFTER SUNRISE... WITH LIGHT WINDS AND A
BROKEN MID CLOUD DECK PREVAILING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 329 PM CDT WED MAY 22 2013/

DISCUSSION...
REMNANTS OF OLD FRONT...ESSENTIALLY A DEW POINT BOUNDARY...REMAINS
ACROSS PARTS OF CNTRL/SNCTRL TX THIS AFTERNOON. THIS FEATURE IS
EXPECTED TO LIFT BACK N TONIGHT AS LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE SURGES
N...WITH EFFECTIVE BOUNDARY DEVELOPING NEAR THE RED RIVER BY EARLY
THURSDAY. SHOULD SEE SOME ELEVATED CONVECTION DEVELOP TO THE N OF
THE BOUNDARY LATE TONIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY...AND SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY
COULD MOVE INTO WRN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA. WILL KEEP LOW PRECIP
CHANCES MAINLY WEST OF HIGHWAY 75 THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT...AS SURFACE RIDGE POSITION FAVORS BEST MOISTURE RETURN TO OUR
WEST.

UPPER RIDGE EXPECTED TO BREAK DOWN SOME OVER THE WEEKEND AS SEVERAL
WEAK WAVES MOVE THROUGH. VEERING LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL SHUNT BETTER
MOISTURE EWD...AND WILL CONTINUE WITH GENERAL 30/40 POPS FOR MUCH
THE REGION SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.

LOW POPS WILL PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH THE UPPER RIDGE
EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM BACK WELL INTO THE 80S FOR NEXT WEEK...WITH
VERY MILD OVERNIGHT LOWS. STUCK FAIRLY CLOSE TO A GFS/ECMWF BLEND
FOR TEMPS.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...06