000
FXUS64 KTSA 181620
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1120 AM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013

...UPDATE...

.DISCUSSION...
ISOLATED CONVECTION HAS CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY SPREAD EASTWARD
WITHIN THE ONGOING WARM MOIST ADVECTION REGIME. OVERALL THE
CONVECTION HAS REMAINED SHALLOW...AND LIKELY WILL REMAIN SO GIVEN
THE STRONG CAP NOTED ON 12Z REGIONAL SOUNDINGS. UPDATE WILL ADJUST
FOR MORE CLOUD COVER THROUGH MID AFTERNOON AND INCLUDE ISOLATED
TSRA FOR ALL OF CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF FORECAST AREA.

SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WELL TO THE WEST OF THE AREA
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL ATTEMPT TO SPREAD INTO EASTERN OK
LATER THIS EVENING. THIS SCENARIO IS COVERED WITH THE CURRENT
FORECAST WITH NO ADJUSTMENTS PLANNED AT THIS TIME FOR EVENING
STORM CHANCES.

THE LATEST DATA CONTINUE TO SUPPORT THE LIKELIHOOD FOR VOLATILE
SEVERE WEATHER SUNDAY EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...WITH
PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA THE MOST LIKELY TO BE IMPACTED.
LATER DISCUSSIONS WILL ADDRESS THIS POTENTIAL.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   88  71  88  67 /  20  30  20  60
FSM   89  69  89  69 /  20  10  10  30
MLC   88  70  87  70 /  20  20  20  40
BVO   89  70  89  66 /  20  30  50  70
FYV   85  66  86  66 /  20  10  10  40
BYV   86  66  86  67 /  20  10  10  60
MKO   88  69  88  68 /  20  20  20  40
MIO   86  70  86  67 /  20  20  20  70
F10   87  70  87  68 /  20  30  20  40
HHW   87  68  87  69 /  10  20  10  30

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...07