000
FXUS64 KTSA 162047
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
347 PM CDT THU MAY 16 2013

.DISCUSSION...
UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER WESTERN AR WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT EASTWARD
OVERNIGHT AND GRADUALLY LOSE INFLUENCE OVER THE LOCAL WEATHER.
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS...SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL REMAIN LIKELY
WITHIN WEAKLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS WITH THESE LARGELY DISSIPATING WITH
LOSS OF HEATING. PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP OVERNIGHT SHOULD CLOUD
COVER DISSIPATE WITH LOCALLY DENSE FOG POSSIBLE.

TEMPS WILL WARM QUICKLY ON FRIDAY ONCE ANY MORNING CLOUD/FOG
DISSIPATE AS UPPER RIDGING AMPLIFIES THROUGH THE PLAINS. THE
WARMING LOW LEVEL PROFILES WILL MARK THE EXPANDING INFLUENCE OF A
CAPPING INVERSION THAT WILL BE A FACTOR THROUGH THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. WHILE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF THE EXPANDING CAP...THOSE CHANCES
APPEAR SUFFICIENTLY LOW SO THAT THIS FORECAST WILL FOCUS PRECIP
CHANCES BASED ON STORMS DEVELOPING ON THE DRYLINE / FRONTAL BOUNDARIES.

SVR STORMS WILL DEVELOP SATURDAY ALONG THE DRYLINE OVER WESTERN OK
AND LIKELY ACROSS SOUTHERN KANSAS ALONG THE STRENGTHENING WARM
FRONTAL ZONE. BOTH THESE ORIGINATION ZONES APPEAR SUFFICIENTLY FAR
AWAY FROM THE FORECAST AREA THAT STORM CHANCES WILL REMAIN LOW
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.

SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT APPEAR MORE LIKELY FOR SVR WX INTO NE OK
AND NW AR...AS THE DRYLINE SHIFTS FURTHER EASTWARD AND A COLD
FRONT SLIDES INTO SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. INSTABILITY LOOKS TO BE
STRONG SOUTH AND EAST OF THE BOUNDARIES...AND CURRENT SHEAR VALUES
SUPPORT SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT WHICH WILL POSE ALL MODES OF SVR
WEATHER. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND/OR CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW WILL PUSH
FURTHER SOUTHWARD ON MONDAY AND RESIDE SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. THIS AGAIN WILL SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR SEVERE WEATHER
WITH A HIGHLY UNSTABLE RESIDING SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY. THE SUNDAY
THROUGH MONDAY TIMEFRAME IS LIKELY TO A PERIOD OF SEVERAL
CONVECTIVE WATCHES AND NUMEROUS SEVERE WEATHER WARNINGS.

THE FORECAST BECOMES MUCH MORE UNCERTAIN REGARDING THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. LOW THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WERE
RETAINED FOR SEVERAL DAYS GIVEN THE POTENTIAL THIS BOUNDARY MAY
REMAIN IN THE AREA...HOWEVER A TRANSITION TOWARD UPPER RIDGING
WILL LESSEN THE SVR WX POTENTIAL.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   62  84  69  89 /  10   0  10  10
FSM   63  82  68  88 /  40  10  10  10
MLC   60  80  68  87 /  10   0  10  10
BVO   58  83  66  89 /  10   0  10  10
FYV   58  80  64  85 /  30  10  10  10
BYV   60  79  64  85 /  40  10  10  10
MKO   60  82  68  88 /  20   0  10  10
MIO   59  83  66  89 /  20  10  10  10
F10   61  81  69  87 /  10   0  10  10
HHW   65  80  68  87 /  20   0  10  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

LONG TERM....07