000
FXUS64 KTSA 142106
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
406 PM CDT TUE MAY 14 2013

.DISCUSSION...
WARMEST DAY OF THE YEAR SO FAR WITH 90+ IN TULSA.

PROLONGED PERIOD  OF SOUTH WINDS WILL ENHANCE LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE AREA THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS.
UPPER DISTURBANCE FROM  SOUTHWEST  WILL TAP MOIST
AIR FOR PRECIP WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY. SEVERE THUNDER
NOT EXPECTED.  MILD NIGHTS WITH HIGHER DEWPOINTS.

BROAD AND MUCH STRONGER UPPER TROUGH WITH EMBEDDED
IMPULSES WILL IMPACT OUR AREA LATE WEEKEND/MONDAY.
ECMWF FASTER AND STRONGER THAN GFS WITH ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT LATE SUNDAY.CONSENSUS WOULD BRING FRONT
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. BIG COOL DOWN POST FRONT.



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   70  79  66  78 /   0  50  60  20
FSM   64  77  62  77 /   0  60  70  50
MLC   70  76  64  77 /   0  70  70  40
BVO   62  81  63  78 /   0  30  20  10
FYV   64  75  60  75 /   0  60  70  30
BYV   62  79  60  76 /   0  40  50  20
MKO   68  77  63  76 /  10  60  60  40
MIO   64  81  62  78 /   0  50  40  20
F10   65  77  64  77 /   0  50  70  20
HHW   65  75  63  77 /  20  80  70  40

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...06
LONG TERM....21