319
FXUS64 KTSA 280739
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
239 AM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today)
Issued at 237 AM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024

A line of heavy thunderstorms, some severe, continues to advance
east, now impacting southeast OK and northwest AR. This area of
storms will gradually weaken, eventually exiting the forecast area
by around 10 AM. Moderate rainfall is falling behind the line for
most of eastern OK. This broad area of rain will also gradually move
eastwards, but will not totally exit the forecast area until late
morning or early afternoon. Total precipitation (counting what has
already fallen) will vary widely, but when all is said and done a
few areas may exceed 4", with most areas seeing 1-3".

CAM guidance is in good agreement that storms will reinvigorate
along a north south line from roughly Tulsa to McAlester, with
storms then progressing east. Although there will not be near as
significant of shear or instability as was present today, there is a
15-30% chance of severe weather (within 25 points of any given
point) with the highest threat in northwest AR. The main hazards
will likely be large hail and damaging winds, but an isolated
tornado could also occur. Any storms will wrap up by the evening.

In terms of temperatures, highs will generally be in the mid 70s to
near 80F for eastern OK, but highs are a bit trickier for northwest
AR where more precipitation is forecast. Lowered forecast highs a
bit below NBM for northwest AR.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tonight through Saturday)
Issued at 237 AM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024

A quiet night will be on tap into Monday morning, with cooler low
temperatures expected, mostly in the 50s. Monday will be mild and
dry with highs in the upper 70s to low 80s. Temperatures will warm
further Tuesday, with low to mid 80s expected.

A broad and deep trough will settle across the Great Basin and
northern Great Plains by Tuesday evening, continuing into the
weekend before it finally lifts out. This will induce a prolonged
period of moist southerly flow with periodic upper level ascent,
with the forecast area on the edge of the right entrance region of
the upper level jet. Showers and thunderstorms may develop along
weak frontal features that will move into the area Tuesday evening
and Wednesday. More widespread and substantial precipitation is
then anticipated Thursday and Friday as a stronger cold front
pushes south into the area. There is some potential for severe
weather during this period given the unstable airmass, good wind
shear, and decent forcing. The exact details of any severe weather
will come down to smaller scale details that we won`t know for a
few more days. Cooler and drier weather is then expected by next
Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1231 AM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024

Line of storms will sweep across the TAF sites over the next 6 to
9 hours, with deteriorating conditions expected along with strong
wind gusts. MVFR cigs will persist in the wake of the system thru
the morning with some spotty showers. Another round of storms may
develop during the afternoon and slide across the TAF sites,
especially NW AR where tempo groups will be used.

Lacy

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   78  55  81  59 /  80  10   0   0
FSM   76  62  83  58 /  90  60  10   0
MLC   76  59  83  59 / 100  20  10   0
BVO   77  49  79  55 /  70  10   0  10
FYV   73  57  80  55 / 100  60  10   0
BYV   72  58  78  54 /  90  70  10   0
MKO   74  57  80  57 / 100  20   0   0
MIO   72  53  78  55 / 100  30   0   0
F10   77  57  80  58 /  90  10   0   0
HHW   75  60  81  59 / 100  30  10   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Flood Watch until 1 PM CDT this afternoon for OKZ049-053>076.

AR...Flood Watch until 1 PM CDT this afternoon for ARZ001-002-010-011-
     019-020-029.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...06
LONG TERM....06
AVIATION...30