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000
FXUS65 KTWC 240411
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
910 PM MST THU MAY 23 2013

.SYNOPSIS...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL
MAINTAIN A DRY SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW INTO NEXT WEEK. EXPECT SOME
INCREASE IN CLOUDS WITH BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS TUESDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS A DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. SLIGHTLY
COOLER DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...IR SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATED CLEAR SKIES ACROSS SE
AZ AT THIS TIME. SURFACE WINDS HAD DIMINISHED TO GENERALLY LESS THAN
10 MPH ACROSS MUCH OF SE AZ. HOWEVER...SWLY WINDS WITH GUSTS TO 26
MPH WERE OBSERVED AT KFHU AT 855 PM MST. CLEAR SKIES WILL PREVAIL
THE REST OF TONIGHT. ABUNDANT SUNSHINE IS THEN ON TAP FRIDAY WITH
PERHAPS A FEW CIRRIFORM CLOUDS TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. HIGH TEMPS
FRIDAY WILL AVERAGE WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF NORMAL. PLEASE REFER TO
THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION SECTION BELOW FOR ADDITIONAL DETAIL.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...LONG WAVE TROUGH ALONG THE WEST COAST WILL REMAIN
IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK. THIS TROUGH WILL
MODERATE OUR HIGH TEMPERATURES TO NEAR AVERAGE LEVELS. THE SOUTHWEST
FLOW OVER ARIZONA WILL CAUSE GUSTY AFTERNOON WINDS AT MOST LOCATIONS
THROUGH MEMORIAL DAY.

ON TUESDAY A SHORT WAVE SYSTEM DROPS INTO THIS TROUGH AND AMPLIFIES
IT FURTHER SOUTH. THE LATEST 12Z RUNS OF THE ECMWF AND GFS HAVE
SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS ON THE TRACK FOR THIS LOW. THE ECMWF
HAS THE LOW CENTER IN NORTHERN ARIZONA ON WEDNESDAY AT 18Z...WHEREAS
THE GFS HAS THE LOW INTO NORTHERN NEW MEXICO. THIS VARIATION
DECREASES THE CONFIDENT OF THE EXTENDED FORECASTS AT DAYS 6 AND 7.
IF THE ECMWF VERIFIES...A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS WOULD OCCUR THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. IF THE GFS VERIFIES...MOST OF THE LIGHT SHOWER
ACTIVITY WOULD BE IN NORTHERN ARIZONA. DUE TO THESE VARIATIONS...
INCREASED THE POPS AND SKY COVER SLIGHTLY AT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
HOWEVER AT THIS TIME THE DRY FORECAST CONTINUES THROUGH SEVEN DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...SKC-FEW CLOUDS ABOVE 20K FT AGL THRU FRIDAY EVENING OR
25/06Z. SURFACE WIND LATE FRIDAY MORNING INTO EARLY FRIDAY EVENING
SWLY 12-18 KTS WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 25 KTS. OTHERWISE...SURFACE WIND
MAINLY LESS THAN 10 KTS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF
AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK. DAYTIME
MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS
WITH FAIR TO POOR OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES. SOME BREEZES WILL OCCUR
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. HOWEVER...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO OCCUR. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS
FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AT THIS
TIME APPEARS THAT THE MAIN IMPACT WILL BE BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY
CONDITIONS AND SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER...FIELD CREWS
ARE ENCOURAGED TO MONITOR SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS FOR THE POTENTIAL OF
DRY LIGHTNING...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE MOUNTAINS. EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS
NEXT THURSDAY AS THE SYSTEM MOVES EAST OF THE AREA.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

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BF
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...GWS