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000
FXUS65 KTWC 171542
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
842 AM MST FRI MAY 17 2013

.SYNOPSIS...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION TODAY
AND SATURDAY. EXPECT GUSTY WINDS AT TIMES WITH A COOLING TREND TODAY
INTO SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES WILL
THEN DEVELOP EARLY NEXT WEEK AND GUIDE TEMPERATURES BACK TO WELL
ABOVE AVERAGE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THIS MORNINGS UPPER AIR PROFILE EXHIBITED PRONOUNCED
DRY AIR THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN. PROFILE WAS ALSO A COUPLE DEGREES
COOLER FROM THE SURFACE TO AROUND 700 MB...AND ADDITIONAL COOLING
ABOVE 600 MB. SO CURRENT MAX TEMP FORECAST TODAY IS ON TRACK WITH
MOST AREAS EXPECTED TO BE 2 TO 3 DEGREES COOLER THAN YESTERDAY. AN
APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS PUSHING THE COOLER AIR INTO
ARIZONA. THE TROUGH AXIS IS CURRENTLY STILL WEST OF ARIZONA BY A
FEW HUNDRED MILES...BUT THE AXIS SHOULD REACH WESTERN AZ THIS
AFTERNOON OR EVENING. SO IN ADDITION TO THE COOLING TREND...ALSO
ANTICIPATE INCREASING HIGH CLOUD COVER.

FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE. ANTICIPATE NO MAJOR CHANGES TODAY. BROST.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HIGH CLOUDS
SHOULD BE THE ONLY SKY COVER. SLY/SWLY SFC WIND 15-25 KTS WITH OCNL
GUSTS OF 30-35 KTS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF
AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE REGION
TODAY... PASS THROUGH THE STATE SATURDAY AND BE EAST OF THE REGION
SUNDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE DRY BUT WILL COOL TEMPERATURES AND KICK
UP A BREEZE TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOONS WITH LOCALLY WINDY
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON. AFTERNOON MIN RH VALUES WILL BE
IN THE 5-15% RANGE BUT OVERALL...EXPECT WINDS TO REMAIN JUST BELOW
RED FLAG THRESHOLDS. HOWEVER...AREAS AROUND ALPINE MAY REACH RED
FLAG THRESHOLDS TODAY. THUS A RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE
ALPINE AREA THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. DRY CONDITIONS
WILL CONTINUE INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS MORNING SHOWED MID-HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS OVER FAR WESTERN ARIZONA...ALONG NV/CA BORDER. THESE
CLOUDS ARE OUT AHEAD OF UPPER LEVEL TROF. THIS TROF WILL GRADUALLY
PUSH EAST TODAY WITH CLOUD COVER OUT WEST SLOWLY PUSHING EAST. MAIN
CONCERN TODAY WILL BE FIRE WEATHER ISSUES ACROSS FAR NORTHERN
GREENLEE COUNTY. FURTHER DETAILS ARE IN THE FIRE WEATHER SECTION
BELOW. OTHERWISE IT WILL BE 3-5 DEGREES COOLER TODAY WITH AN
ADDITIONAL 3-5 DEGREE COOLER ON SATURDAY AS TROF PASSES ACROSS THE
AREA. ANY SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS FAR NORTHERN
ARIZONA.

DRY NW FLOW ALOFT SUNDAY WITH HIGHS A COUPLE OF DEGREES WARMER THAN
SATURDAY. WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEDNESDAY AT WHICH
TIME TUCSON WILL ONCE AGAIN FLIRT WITH FIRST 100 OF THE YEAR.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
  RED FLAG WARNING TODAY FROM 12 NOON UNTIL 8 PM MST FOR THE ALPINE
   DISTRICT OF THE WHITE MOUNTAINS IN NORTHERN FIRE WEATHER ZONE 146.

&&

$$

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