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000
FXUS65 KTWC 140900
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
200 AM MST FRI JUN 14 2013

.SYNOPSIS...THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS EAST OF TUCSON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. OTHERWISE...EXPECT
HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HAS BEEN ON THE INCREASE
TONIGHT...WITH 50ISH DEW POINTS SPREAD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
THESE HIGHER DEW POINTS AND THE MID LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE SHOULD
BRING SOME THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
SHORT TERM PROGS HAVE HINTED AT STORMS AS FAR WEST AS TUCSON GIVEN
THE ABOVE FACTORS...WITH NO ACTIVITY WESTWARD. POINT SOUNDINGS
ACROSS THE AREA STILL SHOW AN INVERTED-V PROFILE SO EXPECT GUSTY
WINDS WITH ANY DEVELOPMENT. PW VALUES TUCSON EASTWARD LOOK TO BE
IN THE ONE INCH NEIGHBORHOOD SO SHOULD SEE SOME MEASUREABLE
RAINFALL AS WELL. EXPECT A SIMILAR SET UP SATURDAY.

SUNDAY THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW TRANSITIONS FROM SWRLY TO MORE ZONAL
IN NATURE AS AN UPPER LOW EDGES ONSHORE ACROSS THE PACIFIC NW.
THIS WILL PUSH THE MOISTURE TO THE EAST OF THE AREA AGAIN. THE
BENIGN PATTERN WILL CONTINUE UNTIL THURSDAY WHEN THE UPPER LOW IS
CENTERED OVER WRN MONTANA RESULTING IN A RETURN TO SWRLY FLOW AND
POSSIBLE SOME MONSOON FETCH AS WELL. HOWEVER...HAVE KEEP POPS
BELOW MENTIONABLE AT THIS TIME UNTIL BETTER AGREEMENT EXIST.

&&

.AVIATION...FEW-SCT CLOUDS ABOVE 12K FT AGL THRU 14/18Z. THEN
ISOLD -TSRA/-SHRA MAINLY NEAR MTNS. DIURNAL SURFACE WIND TRENDS
GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KTS UNTIL 14/17Z THEN WLY/NWLY AT 12-18 KTS
WITH GUSTS TO NEAR 25 KTS THRU 15/03Z. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT
UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A MODEST MOISTURE INCREASE WILL LEAD TO ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING MAINLY NEAR THE MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON
AND AGAIN SATURDAY AFTERNOON. MOST THUNDERSTORMS WILL GENERATE
LIMITED RAINFALL WITH DRY LIGHTNING POSSIBLE. STRONG...GUSTY AND
ERRATIC WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOWS.

OTHERWISE...AFTER MIN RH VALUES IN THE TEENS TODAY AND
SATURDAY...EXPECT DRIER AND HOT CONDITIONS INTO NEXT WEEK. DAYTIME
MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS
TO LOWER TEENS WITH POOR OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES. OUTSIDE OF ANY
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECT NORMAL DIURNAL WIND TRENDS...WITH SOME
GUSTINESS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS DUE TO THE
STRONG SOLAR HEATING.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

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