National Weather Service National Headquarters

• Home
• Site Map
• News
• Organization
• Search for: NWS All NOAA 

000
FXUS65 KTWC 121600
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
900 AM MST WED JUN 12 2013

.SYNOPSIS...THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN EAST OF TUCSON THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. OTHERWISE...EXPECT HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...BROAD UPPER RIDGE OVER THE SRN CONUS WITH 554 DM UPPER
LOW CENTERED ADJACENT THE PACIFIC NW COAST THIS MORNING. WEAK UPPER
LOW/INVERTED TROUGH JUST SOUTH OF THE TEXAS BIG BEND WILL REMAIN
QUASI-STATIONARY THRU THURSDAY. UPPER LOW WILL THEN MOVE NWD INTO
WEST TEXAS BY SAT. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING INCREASED MAINLY MID-
LEVEL MOISTURE TO THE ERN SECTIONS OF THIS FORECAST AREA...
ESPECIALLY THUR AND FRI.

DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS SE AZ THRU THURSDAY MORNING.
THERE APPEARS TO BE ENOUGH MOISTURE TO MAINTAIN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY NEAR THE NEW MEXICO BORDER THUR-FRI
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. PRECIP-FREE CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE ELSEWHERE.

EXPECT DEEPER MOISTURE TO MOVE WELL EAST OF SE AZ SAT AS THE UPPER
LOW MOVES INTO WEST TEXAS. THERE SHOULD STILL BE ENOUGH MID-LEVEL
MOISTURE FOR SOME CUMULOFORM CLOUDS ACROSS GREENLEE/GRAHAM/COCHISE
COUNTIES SAT WITH SUNNY SKIES ELSEWHERE. THEREAFTER...A VERY DRY
SWLY FLOW ALOFT REGIME IS FORECAST TO OCCUR SUN-TUE IN RESPONSE TO
A DEEP UPPER LOW NEAR THE PACIFIC NW COAST AND HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT
CENTERED GENERALLY OVER CHIHUAHUA.

HIGH TEMPS TODAY WILL APPROACH EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING CRITERIA FROM
TUCSON WWD. HOWEVER...WIDESPREAD EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING CRITERIA IS
NOT EXPECTED TO OCCUR. THEREAFTER...A VERY SLIGHT MODERATION IN
DAYTIME TEMPS WILL OCCUR THUR-FRI. SLIGHTLY HOTTER TEMPS TO THEN
RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...SKC-SCT CLOUDS ABOVE 15K FT AGL THRU EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING OR 13/12Z. SURFACE WIND THIS AFTERNOON WLY/NWLY 12-18 KTS
WITH GUSTS TO NEAR 25 KTS. OTHERWISE...SURFACE WIND LESS THAN 10
KTS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN EAST OF TUCSON THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. GIVEN THE DRY SURFACE ENVIRONMENT...ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT
DEVELOP WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS.
OTHERWISE...DRY AND HOT CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. DAYTIME MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS TO LOWER TEENS WITH POOR OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES. EXPECT
NORMAL DIURNAL WIND TRENDS...WITH GUSTINESS DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS DUE TO STRONG DAYTIME HEATING.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

BF