000
FXUS65 KTWC 220347
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
845 PM MST TUE MAY 21 2013

.SYNOPSIS...DRY AND WARMER AGAIN WEDNESDAY AS A WEAK RIDGE PUSHES
OUT OF THE STATE.  AN UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST WILL DEEPEN ALONG THE ENTIRE WEST COAST AND LINGER OVER
THE REGION WELL INTO NEXT WEEK.  THIS WILL RESULT IN A PROLONGED
PERIOD OF DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS SOUTHERN ARIZONA WITH ABOVE
AVERAGE AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES AND GUSTY WINDS AT TIMES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A DEEP LOW MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL DIG
ALONG THE ENTIRE WEST COAST THROUGH THURSDAY.  SOME HEATING JUST
AHEAD OF THE MAIN HEIGHT FALLS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WILL ALLOW FOR A
BIT MORE WARMING COMPARED TO TODAY...BUT ITS LOOKING LIKE WE ARE
ONLY GOING TO BE ABLE TO TEASE TIA AGAIN WITH A 99 WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON BEFORE DROPPING BACK A FEW DEGREES FOR THE REST OF THE
WEEK.  100 POSSIBLE BUT UPPER 90S A BETTER BET AT THIS TIME BASED ON
EXPECTED 850-700MB THICKNESS REGRESSION.  GUSTY WINDS WILL BE THE
MAIN STORY WITH THIS TROUGH FOR OUR AREA AS THE MAIN DYNAMICS REMAIN
WELL NORTH AND ANY MOISTURE WILL BE DRAWN UP EAST OF OUR AREA
THROUGH EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS.

THE UPPER TROUGH WILL LINGER OVER THE FAR WESTERN US BUT WILL BEGIN
TO FILL WITH TIME AS THE PATTERN ACROSS THE US REMAINS LOCKED IN
PLACE BY A STUBBORN RIDGE DOWNSTREAM THROUGH THE CENTRAL STATES.  SO
WHILE IT LOOKS AS THOUGH WE WILL REMAIN DRY...THE TEMPERATURES WILL
FALL BACK TO A LITTLE ABOVE CLIMO WITH MODEST HEIGHT AND THICKNESS
DECREASES AFTER WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...SCT-BKN CLOUDS AOA 20K FT AREAWIDE THRU THE NIGHT BECMG
FEW-SCT AFT 22/14Z.  SURFACE WIND GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KTS AND
DIURNAL IN DIRECTION THRU 22/16Z THEN BECOMING SOUTHWEST 10-20KT
WITH GUSTS 20-35KT.  AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF
AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...HIGH PRESSURE INTO WEDNESDAY WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND
ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES.  A TROUGH WILL DIG INTO THE REGION NORTH
OF US LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND FOR CONTINUED DRY
CONDITIONS AND GUSTY SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS AT TIMES.
HOWEVER...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO STAY JUST BELOW CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER THRESHOLDS FOR MOST OF SOUTHEAST ARIZONA.  THE EXCEPTION MAY
BE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY IN EAST CENTRAL MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS OF
NORTHERN GREENLEE COUNTY (INCLUDING THE ALPINE DISTRICT) WHERE
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THRESHOLDS ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...RED FLAG WARNING WEDNESDAY AND
     THURSDAY FROM NOON UNTIL 8 PM FOR NORTHERN FIRE WEATHER ZONE 146
     INCLUDING THE ALPINE DISTRICT.

&&

$$

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