000
FXUS65 KTWC 122039
AFDTWC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
139 PM MST Fri Apr 12 2024

.SYNOPSIS...Warm and dry across Southeast Arizona with
temperatures several degrees above average through the weekend
before cooling early next week. A weak and dry weather system
passing through the region Friday will result in gusty south to
southwest winds. Thereafter, expect afternoon breezes each day
into next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION..Sunny skies with breezy to windy southwest winds across
the forecast area this afternoon as a dry shortwave approaches the
region from the west to southwest. Latest observations indicate
sustained south to southwest winds at 15 to 25 mph for most locales
with peak gusts around 35 to 40 mph. We`re not seeing much
indication of blowing dust with these winds and that is likely
attributed to the recent wet pattern. Temperatures still quite warm
this afternoon, though coming in a couple of degrees lower than
yesterday. Gusty winds will taper off this evening with the
loss of daytime heating and deep layer mixing.

A fairly seasonable weekend is in store with continued dry
conditions and gusty afternoon winds. Highs will be near to slightly
above normal both Saturday and Sunday with winds in the 10 to 20 mph
range with higher gusts both afternoons.

As a trough passes to our north Sunday night into Monday, that will
result in a dry cold front passage with a noticeable 10 degree or so
drop in high temperatures on Monday. Windy conditions are expected
near the New Mexico border Monday and later shifts may need to
issue wind headlines for this region. The rest of the area,
especially from Tucson westward will see lighter sustained winds in
the 15 to 25 mph range Monday.

After a chilly morning Tuesday (lows in the mid 30s in the coldest
spots of the Sulphur Springs Valley), temperatures will begin to
rebound to near normal levels Tuesday afternoon and then above
normal levels Wednesday through Friday. At this time, a more
prolonged period of highs at or above 90 is possible in Tucson.
As ridging builds in during this time with less gradient winds,
we`ll transition to a more typical wind regime with afternoon
gustiness.

&&

.AVIATION...Valid through 14/00Z. SKC across a majority of SE
Arizona, with SCT-BKN around 20-25k ft AGL across far SE AZ near the
International Border. SFC winds less than 10 kts this morning.
SFC winds this afternoon SLY/SWLY 12-20 kts with gusts up to 30 kts,
then diminishing and becoming southwesterly after 13/02Z.
SFC winds then become SLY/SWLY at 10-15 kts with gusts 20-25 kts
after 14/17Z thru the end of the valid forecast period. Aviation
discussion not updated for TAF amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Warm and dry across Southeast Arizona with above
normal temperatures this weekend. Minimum relative humidity 8
to 16 percent in valleys through Sunday. Gusty winds into
early next week as a couple of dry system move through the region to
the north. Some areas could see brief critical to near critical fire
weather conditions this afternoon and then again on Monday east of
Tucson, but fire danger and ERCs are still low for this time of year.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$


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