000
FXUS65 KTWC 161136
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
430 AM MST THU MAY 16 2013

...UPDATED FIRE WEATHER AND WATCH SECTION...

.SYNOPSIS...A WEAK RIDGE WILL PROVIDE ANOTHER VERY WARM DAY BEFORE A
TROUGH PUSHES INTO THE REGION FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. EXPECT GUSTY
WINDS AT TIMES WITH A COOLING TREND FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. A WEST
COAST RIDGE WILL GUIDE TEMPERATURES BACK TO WELL ABOVE AVERAGE THE
FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...CLEAR UNDER A DRY WESTERLY FLOW THIS MORNING. WE WILL
GAIN AN INCREASING SOUTHERLY COMPONENT AS THE TROUGH DIGS INTO THE
REGION OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. GRADIENT ENHANCEMENT TO BREEZY LEVELS
AS THIS OCCURS...LOCALLY WINDY IN SPOTS. HEIGHT AND THICKNESS FALLS
FOR A DROP BACK TO NEAR CLIMO BY SATURDAY.

BEFORE THAT HAPPENS WE HAVE ROOM FOR ONE MORE VERY WARM DAY AND
SHOULD MANAGE TO SQUEEZE OUT A BIT MORE HEATING FROM TUCSON
EASTWARD. EVEN AS HEIGHTS FALL THROUGH WESTERN AND CENTRAL
ARIZONA...LATEST ECMWF TRENDS SHOW A SLIGHT BOUNCE IN 850-700
THICKNESS IN EASTERN ZONES. 00Z SOUNDING ALSO HAD A COUPLE OF
DEGREES OF WARMING STILL WORKING DOWN FROM MID LEVELS. WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES TODAY THE FIRST 100 AT
TIA IS NOT AT ALL OUT OF THE QUESTION.

OTHERWISE...FRIDAY WILL START THE (RELATIVE) COOLING TREND WITH THE
NEXT POSSIBLE FLIRTATION WITH THE CENTURY MARK AT TIA NOT UNTIL
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK. EVEN THEN...THE COMBINATION OF A
PERSISTENTLY ACTIVE AND PROGRESSIVE MID LATITUDE PATTERN COMBINED
WITH POTENTIAL MODEST TROPICAL MOISTURE INFLUENCES AROUND MID WEEK
MAKE IT LESS THAN CERTAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...MAINLY SKC THRU 16/16Z...WITH FEW-SCT250 AFTER 16/16Z.
SFC WIND GENERALLY TERRAIN DRIVEN LESS THAN 10 KTS THRU 16/15Z THEN
BECOMING SW-W 10-15 KT WITH GUSTS TO 25 MPH THRU 17/02Z.  SFC WIND
DIMINISHING AFT 17/02Z.  AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF
AMENDMENTS.  CERNIGLIA

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...DRY WESTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA TODAY
WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND A SOUTHWEST TO WEST BREEZE THIS
AFTERNOON.  AN UPPER TROUGH WILL APPROACH THE REGION FRIDAY...PASS
OVERHEAD SATURDAY AND MOVE EAST OF THE REGION SUNDAY.  THIS SYSTEM
WILL BE DRY BUT WILL COOL TEMPERATURES AND KICK UP A BREEZE FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY AFTERNOONS WITH LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS POSSIBLE EACH
AFTERNOON.  AFTERNOON MIN RH VALUES WILL BE IN THE 5-15% RANGE BUT
OVERALL...EXPECT WINDS TO REMAIN JUST BELOW RED FLAG THRESHOLDS.
HOWEVER..ISOLATED AREAS MAY BRIEFLY REACH RED FLAG THRESHOLDS FOR
BRIEF PERIODS OF TIME.  THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY SO
STAY TUNED TO THE LATEST DISCUSSION/FORECASTS.  BEYOND THAT DRY
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES INTO WEDNESDAY.  CERNIGLIA

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
   FIRE WEATHER WATCH FRIDAY FOR THE ALPINE DISTRICT OF THE
   WHITE MOUNTAINS IN NORTHERN FIRE WEATHER ZONE 146.

&&

$$

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MEYER/CERNIGLIA