000
FXUS65 KTWC 112135
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
235 PM MST TUE JUN 11 2013

.SYNOPSIS...THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN EAST OF TUCSON THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. OTHERWISE...EXPECT HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS EXTENDED FROM SRN ARIZONA EWD
INTO NORTH TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON. FEW CUMULUS CLOUDS MOSTLY NEAR THE
NEW MEXICO BORDER EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE THIS EVENING. SOME CIRRUS
CLOUDS TO THEN MOVE ACROSS THE AREA FOR MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT
INTO WED MORNING. SUNNY SKIES FROM TUCSON WWD WED AFTERNOON WITH
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ERN SECTIONS.

11/12Z NAM/GFS/ECMWF WERE SIMILAR WITH DEPICTING INCREASED MAINLY
MID-LEVEL MOISTURE TO MOVE NWD MAINLY ACROSS GREENLEE/GRAHAM/COCHISE
COUNTIES THUR-FRI. BASED ON THESE SOLUTIONS...HAVE ADJUSTED THE
GRIDDED DATA POP FIELDS TO DEPICT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON/
EVENING SHOWERS/TSTMS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN EAST OF TUCSON.
PRECIP-FREE CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE FROM TUCSON WWD.

DEEPER MOISTURE IS PROGGED TO BE SHUNTED EAST OF THIS FORECAST AREA
SAT. THUS...HAVE REDUCED THE INHERITED POPS SAT TO LESS THAN 10
PERCENT AREAWIDE. THEREAFTER...SWLY FLOW ALOFT IS PROGGED TO OCCUR
SUN-TUE IN RESPONSE TO DEEP UPPER LOW NEAR THE PACIFIC NW COAST AND
UPPER HIGH CENTERED GENERALLY OVER CHIHUAHUA.

HIGH TEMPS AGAIN WED WILL APPROACH EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING CRITERIA
FROM TUCSON WWD. HAVE OPTED TO NOT ISSUE AN EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING
WITH THE EXPECTATION THAT WIDESPREAD CRITERIA WILL NOT BE ACHIEVED.
THEREAFTER...A VERY SLIGHT MODERATION IN DAYTIME TEMPS WILL OCCUR
THUR-FRI. SLIGHTLY HOTTER TEMPS TO THEN RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...FEW CUMULUS CLOUDS AT 8-12K FT AGL NEAR THE NEW MEXICO
BORDER THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE...SKC-SCT CLOUDS ABOVE 15K FT AGL
THRU WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON OR 13/00Z. SURFACE WIND INTO EARLY THIS
EVENING AND WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WLY/NWLY 12-18 KTS WITH GUSTS TO
NEAR 25 KTS. OTHERWISE...SURFACE WIND LESS THAN 10 KTS. AVIATION
DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN EAST OF TUCSON THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. GIVEN THE DRY SURFACE ENVIRONMENT...ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT
DEVELOP WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS.
OTHERWISE...DRY AND HOT CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. DAYTIME MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS TO LOWER TEENS WITH POOR OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES. EXPECT
NORMAL DIURNAL WIND TRENDS...WITH GUSTINESS DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS DUE TO STRONG DAYTIME HEATING.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

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