000
FXUS65 KTWC 122110
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
210 PM MST WED JUN 12 2013

.SYNOPSIS...THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN EAST OF TUCSON THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. OTHERWISE...EXPECT HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...UPPER RIDGE AXIS EXTENDED FROM SRN ARIZONA INTO THE
SERN CONUS THIS AFTERNOON. WEAK UPPER LOW/INVERTED TROUGH JUST SOUTH
OF THE TEXAS BIG BEND WILL REMAIN QUASI-STATIONARY THRU THURSDAY.
UPPER LOW WILL THEN MOVE NWD INTO WEST TEXAS BY SAT. THIS SYSTEM
WILL BRING INCREASED MAINLY MID-LEVEL MOISTURE TO THE FAR EASTERN
SECTIONS OF SE AZ...ESPECIALLY THUR AND FRI.

DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS SE AZ THRU THURSDAY MORNING. HAVE
MAINTAINED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY NEAR
THE NEW MEXICO BORDER THUR-FRI DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS. PRECIP-FREE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ELSEWHERE.

DEEPER MOISTURE WAS PROGGED VIA THE 12/12Z GFS/ECMWF TO MOVE WELL
EAST OF SE AZ SAT AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES INTO WEST TEXAS. THERE
SHOULD STILL BE ENOUGH MID-LEVEL MOISTURE FOR SOME CUMULOFORM CLOUDS
ACROSS GREENLEE/GRAHAM/COCHISE COUNTIES SAT WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
ELSEWHERE. CLEAR SKIES FROM TUCSON WWD SAT NIGHT WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES ACROSS ERN SECTIONS. THEREAFTER...A SWLY FLOW ALOFT REGIME IS
FORECAST TO OCCUR SUN-WED. HAVE NOTED THAT THE ECMWF REMAINED
SOMEWHAT DRIER VERSUS THE GFS. AT ANY RATE...CLEAR SKIES OR MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES WILL PREVAIL SUN-WED.

THERE WILL BE A VERY SLIGHT MODERATION IN DAYTIME TEMPS THUR-FRI.
HOWEVER...HIGH TEMPS WILL STILL REMAIN ABOUT 3-5 DEGS F ABOVE
NORMAL. EXPECT NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN DAYTIME TEMPS THIS WEEKEND
FOLLOWED BY SLIGHTLY HOTTER TEMPS EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...SKC-SCT CLOUDS ABOVE 15K FT AGL THRU THURSDAY AFTERNOON
OR 14/00Z. SURFACE WIND INTO EARLY THIS EVENING AND THURSDAY
AFTERNOON WLY/NWLY 12-18 KTS WITH GUSTS TO NEAR 25 KTS. OTHERWISE...
SURFACE WIND LESS THAN 10 KTS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR
TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN EAST OF TUCSON THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. GIVEN THE DRY SURFACE ENVIRONMENT...ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT
DEVELOP WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS.
OTHERWISE...DRY AND HOT CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK. DAYTIME MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL GENERALLY BE IN
THE SINGLE DIGITS TO LOWER TEENS WITH POOR OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES.
EXPECT NORMAL DIURNAL WIND TRENDS...WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS DUE TO STRONG DAYTIME HEATING.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

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