000
FXUS65 KTWC 190345
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
845 PM MST SAT MAY 18 2013

.SYNOPSIS...EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS DURING THE UPCOMING WEEK. A
GRADUAL WARMING TREND WILL ALSO PREVAIL...WITH ABOVE NORMAL DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES TO OCCUR DURING THE MIDDLE AND LATTER PART OF THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...STILL LOOKING AT SOME MODERATE WINDS LATE THIS
EVENING. EXPECT THESE WINDS TO DIMINISH IN SPEED OVER NIGHT BEFORE
PICKING BACK UP SUNDAY AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...JUST LOOKING AT MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY. CURRENT FORECAST APPEARED TO BE
ON TRACK...SO NO UPDATES THIS EVENING.

&&

.AVIATION...SKC THRU SUNDAY AFTERNOON OR 20/00Z. SFC WND EARLY THIS
EVENING AND SUNDAY AFTERNOON WLY/NWLY 10-18 KTS WITH GUSTS TO NEAR
25 KTS...STRONGEST WIND EAST OF KTUS. OTHERWISE...SURFACE WIND LESS
THAN 10 KTS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL DURING THE UPCOMING WEEK
ALONG WITH A GRADUAL DAILY WARMING TREND. DAYTIME MINIMUM RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO LOWER TEENS
WITH FAIR OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES. EXPECT NORMAL DIURNAL WIND TRENDS
SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS DUE TO STRONG DAYTIME HEATING.
SOMEWHAT STRONGER SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL LIKELY RETURN THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEEPENS NORTHWEST OF THE AREA.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...LOW PRESSURE ALOFT OVER THE NRN ROCKIES/NRN CONUS
PLAINS AND STRONG HIGH PRESSURE JUST OFF THE WEST COAST WILL PROVIDE
A DRY NWLY FLOW ALOFT REGIME ACROSS SE AZ THRU MON NIGHT. THIS
PATTERN WILL BRING CLEAR SKIES...ALTHOUGH SOME CUMULOFORM CLOUDS MAY
OCCUR ACROSS THE WHITE MOUNTAINS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
SHORTWAVE RIDGE AXIS IS PROGGED TO APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE WEST
ON TUE...THEN RIDGE AXIS WILL MOVE EWD WED IN RESPONSE TO DEEPENING
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE PACIFIC NW. SOME CIRRIFORM CLOUDS WILL PROVIDE
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TUE-WED.

THEREAFTER...FLOW ALOFT TO BECOME INCREASINGLY SWLY THUR-FRI AS THE
UPPER LOW REMAINS QUASI-STATIONARY OVER THE PACIFIC NW. THE
TIGHTENING MID-LEVEL GRADIENT WILL LIKELY MEAN A RETURN OF BREEZY TO
LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS THUR-FRI...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. DRY SWLY FLOW ALOFT TO CONTINUE NEXT SAT.
SURFACE WINDS MAY DECREASE SOMEWHAT AS THE MID-LEVEL GRADIENT
LOOSENS.

HIGH TEMPS SUN WILL BE QUITE SIMILAR TO TEMPS ACHIEVED THIS
AFTERNOON. EXPECT A FEW DEGREES OF DAILY WARMING MON-WED FOLLOWED BY
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN DAYTIME TEMPS THUR-FRI. SLIGHTLY COOLER
NEXT SAT ALTHOUGH FORECAST HIGH TEMPS WILL REMAIN A FEW DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

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