000
FXUS65 KTWC 162128
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
230 PM MST SUN JUN 16 2013

.SYNOPSIS...A FEW SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE EAST OF TUCSON
THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE...HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK BEFORE MOISTURE RETURNS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...RADAR WAS SHOWING A FEW SHOWERS DEVELOPING EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS COCHISE AND GRAHAM COUNTIES...BUT THE COVERAGE WAS
VERY MINIMAL SO FAR. DO NOT EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO LAST MUCH LONGER
AND DISSIPATE BY SUNDOWN. OTHERWISE...STILL LOOKING AT DRY
CONDITIONS AND HOT AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES AS MOISTURE PUSHES EAST OF
THE REGION TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUED TO
HINT AT MOISTURE MOVING BACK INTO SOUTHEAST ARIZONA AROUND THURSDAY
INTO NEXT WEEKEND. SOMEWHAT SIMILAR TO WHAT HAPPENED THE PAST 3
DAYS. THAT SAID...WILL INTRODUCE LOW POP VALUES STARTING THURSDAY
AND GRADUALLY INCREASE THEM EACH DAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&


.AVIATION...SCT-BKN CLOUDS 8-12K FT WITH ISOLD -SHRA/-TSRA PSBL EAST
OF KTUS THROUGH 17/03Z WITH SKIES BECOMING MAINLY CLEAR THEREAFTER
THRU 18/00Z. SWLY/WLY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON 10-15 KTS WITH HIGHER
GUSTS...TAPERING OFF AFTER 17/03Z AND REMAINING LIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...ENOUGH RESIDUAL MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO EARLY THIS EVENING FOR
EASTERN AREAS. OTHERWISE...DRIER AIR WILL MOVE IN FROM THE WEST
MONDAY WITH HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
SOME MOISTURE MAY TRY TO MOVE BACK INTO EASTERN AREAS BY THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY. NORMAL DIURNAL WIND TRENDS THIS WEEK WITH GUSTY DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS DUE TO THE STRONG DAYTIME
HEATING.

&&

.CLIMATE...THE NUMBERS ARE IN FOR THE FIRST HALF OF JUNE. FROM JUNE
1 TO JUNE 15 THE AVERAGE TEMPERATURE IN TUCSON WAS 89.0 DEGREES.
THIS IS THE WARMEST JUNE 1ST TO JUNE 15TH ON RECORD FOR TUCSON AND
IS A FULL DEGREE WARMER THAN THE NEXT WHICH WAS 88.0 IN 2006.
REGARDING THE REST OF THE MONTH...THE WARMEST JUNE ON RECORD IS 89.2
IN 1994. WE ARE EXPECTING ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THIS
UPCOMING WEEK...SO UNLESS WE SEE A MAJOR CHANGE FOR THE END OF THE
MONTH IT WILL BE IN THE TOP 10 WARMEST JUNE ON RECORD AND PERHAPS IN
THE TOP FEW.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

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