000
FXUS65 KTWC 181555
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
855 AM MST TUE JUN 18 2013

.SYNOPSIS...HOT AND DRY MOST OF THE WEEK. SOME MOISTURE WILL SEEP
BACK INTO EASTERN AREAS LATER THIS WEEK FOR A CHANCE OF MAINLY
MOUNTAIN THUNDERSTORMS BY FRIDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY WESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST WITH A RIDGE CENTERED OFFSHORE OF THE BAJA SPUR.
THIS HAS PUSHED THE CONVECTION FARTHER EAST INTO TEXAS. IR AND
VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOW VIRTUALLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS ARIZONA WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF A FEW PATCHES OF HIGH CLOUDS ALONG THE ARIZONA/MEXICO
BORDER AND MOVING EAST.

AS OF 15Z (8 AM MST)...TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION RANGED FROM
THE UPPER 70S TO THE MID 80S WITH THE TUCSON INTL AIRPORT AT 84
DEGS. THESE READINGS ARE GENERALLY ON TRACK WITH EXPECTED AFTERNOON
HIGH TEMPERATURES...SO NO CHANGES TO THE TEMPS ARE PLANNED AT THIS
TIME...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR AND WILL MAKE ADJUSTMENTS IF
NEEDED. THE BOTTOM LINE IS THE FORECAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF TODAY
IS IN GOOD SHAPE.

FOR DETAILS REGARDING THE FORECAST BEYOND TODAY...PLEASE REFER TO
THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...SKC AND VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THRU 19/18Z.
GENERALLY LIGHT DIURNAL WINDS TRENDS...WITH SOME AFTERNOON GUSTS OF
UP TO 20 KTS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. SOME MOISTURE WILL TRY TO SEEP BACK INTO EASTERN
AREAS BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. EXPECT AN INCREASING CHANCE OF MAINLY
MOUNTAIN THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...MAINLY EAST AND
SOUTH OF TUCSON. NORMAL DIURNAL WIND TRENDS WITH STRONGER GUSTS
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...DEEP WESTERLY FLOW ONCE AGAIN AS A STRONG LOW
PUSHES INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND THE RIDGE PHASES EAST OF US.
DRY REGIME WITH SURFACE DEWPTS IN THE TEENS AND 20S AND PRECIPITABLE
WATER A MEAGER 1/3 OF AN INCH (ABOUT HALF OF CLIMO FOR MID JUNE).
DEEPER MOISTURE NOT THAT FAR AWAY IN SOUTHERN SONORA AND EASTERN NEW
MEXICO...BUT NO MECHANISM TO GET IT HERE THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

AS THE RIDGE PHASES FURTHER DOWNSTREAM THE BLOCKING WEAK HIGH
CIRCULATION IN NORTHERN MEXICO WILL RECONSOLIDATE IN TEXAS OVER THE
NEXT 72 HOURS. AS THIS HAPPENS EXPECT SONORA AND CHIHUAHUA TO GET
PRETTY ACTIVE AGAIN BY THURSDAY. STILL A WEAK WESTERLY COMPONENT TO
OUR FLOW BUT GAINING SOUTHERLY INFLUENCE AS WE PUSH LATER IN THE
WEEK. EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF MODEST MOISTURE INFLUXES TO BRING
CONVECTION BACK TO THE SOUTHEAST PART OF THE STATE...ALBEIT A
RELATIVELY LOW GRADE CONVECTIVE FORECAST THAT EMPHASIZES TERRAIN
INFLUENCES.

ECMWF BUILDS A SECONDARY HIGH CENTER BACK INTO NEW MEXICO
MONDAY...THIS WOULD BE IDEAL FOR AN ADDITIONAL EARLY SEASON UPSWING
IN ACTIVITY.

UNTIL THEN THOUGH...HOT WITH TEMPERATURES ROUTINELY RUNNING 5 TO 8
DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO. SUMMER IS EITHER HOT AND DRY OR MODERATED BY
THE MOISTURE...NOT MUCH IN BETWEEN. WE`LL KEEP COUNTING THE 100
DEGREE DAYS.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

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CURRENT DISCUSSION...MOLLERE
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...MEYER/RASMUSSEN