512
FNUS73 KUNR 161404
FWSUNR

Spot Forecast for Wright Rx...South Dakota Wildland Fire
National Weather Service Rapid City SD
804 AM MDT Thu May 16 2024

Forecast is based on ignition time of 0900 MDT on May 16.
If conditions become unrepresentative, contact the National Weather
Service.

.DISCUSSION...Mostly dry conditions are expected over the spot
area the remainder of the week. There is a small chance of a
shower/storm going over the spot location this afternoon, but
moisture will be limited. Any showers/storms the rest of the week
should stay north of the spot area. Fire weather concerns are
limited to Friday in areas that have not had sufficient green up,
with highs in the 70s and 80s, relative humidity around 20 percent
over the spot, and some gusty west- southwest winds Friday
afternoon. A cold front will move through the area late Friday
afternoon into Friday night with a period of gusty northwest winds
in the overnight hours.

.REST OF TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (35-45 percent).
Max temperature.....Around 75.
Min humidity........31 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........West winds around 10 mph with gusts to around
                    15 mph.
CWR.................0 percent.
LAL.................1.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Mixing height.......9500 to 10000 ft agl.
Transport winds.....West 15 to 20 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Very good.

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy (25-35 percent).
Min temperature.....Around 54.
Max humidity........53 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........South winds 5 to 10 mph shifting to the west
                    overnight.
CWR.................0 percent.
LAL.................1.
Haines Index........5 or moderate potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Mixing height.......600 to 1100 ft agl.
Transport winds.....Southwest 10 to 15 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor.

.FRIDAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny (5-15 percent).
Max temperature.....Around 83.
Min humidity........22 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southwest winds 10 to 15 mph with gusts to
                    around 21 mph.
CWR.................0 percent.
LAL.................1.
Haines Index........5 or moderate potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Mixing height.......10900 to 11400 ft agl.
Transport winds.....Southwest around 15 mph increasing to around 35
                    mph in the afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....Excellent.

$$
Forecaster...AD
Requested by...Seth Stevens
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2414401.0/UNR
.DELDT 05/16/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL Seth.stevens@state.sd.us