045
FXUS65 KVEF 302233
AFDVEF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
333 PM PDT Tue Apr 30 2024

.SYNOPSIS...Another day of warm temperatures, mostly clear skies,
and afternoon breezes today before a weather system briefly
moderates temperatures and returns gusty north-northwest winds to
the forecast area. Temperatures will warm once again through the
remainder of the work week before another weather system approaches
late weekend into early next week.
&&


.SHORT TERM...Today through Thursday.

Mostly sunny skies and above-average temperatures continue this
afternoon. Breezy winds expected across the area as weak
disturbances pass through the forecast area along our dry
northwesterly flow aloft. On Wednesday, temperatures will drop back
toward seasonal averages and gusty north-northwest winds will pick
up as a result of a closed low pushing through the Intermountain
West and Great Basin. This system will be dry, meaning no
precipitation is expected for our forecast area.

This wind will then concentrate along the Colorado River Valley on
Thursday, resulting in the strongest winds from Laughlin / Bullhead
City to Needles as well as hazardous boating conditions at Lake
Mohave.


.LONG TERM...Friday through next Tuesday.

Warm and dry conditions continue for the end of the work week into
the weekend with above-average high temperatures and single-digit
afternoon relative humidities for the entire forecast area.

Uncertainty continues in the long term, though this is better
illustrated by the NBM this afternoon. On Sunday, the Deterministic
NBM shows a drop in temperatures to 8-10 degrees below seasonal
averages. For Las Vegas, the 25th percentile shows a high
temperature of 72F and a 75th percentile of 82F on Sunday. There
remains intermodel uncertainty regarding the depth, speed, and
location of a closed low as it pushes into the north-central West
Coast. The GFS ensemble means continue to indicate that the center
of the low will push through southern Nevada, resulting in
widespread rainfall, while the ECMWF ensemble means continue to
indicate that the center of the low will remain a bit further
north as more of Great Basin show. The ECMWF solution still
increases PoPs for our forecast area, but they`re focused in our
northern zones including northern Inyo, Esmeralda, central Nye,
and Lincoln counties. Will continue to work out details regarding
this weekend`s system through the week.
&&


.AVIATION...For Harry Reid...Light winds favoring a northeast-to-
east direction will gradually rotate around to the southwest by late
afternoon. While occasional gusts to 15kts may be experienced
while the winds are from the east or southeast early this
afternoon, most of the gustiness is not expected until after
becoming more southwesterly. Light winds return by late evening.
Wednesday morning, gusty northwest winds are expected to develop
after 15Z as a disturbance moves into the Great Basin. VFR
conditions persist through Wednesday.

For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast
California...Most regional TAF sites will see southwest-to-west
winds with gusts to 20kts this afternoon and early evening.  KBIH
will be the exception where northwest to north winds of less than
20kts are expected into this evening. Lighter winds are forecast
overnight, followed by gusty northerly winds developing Wednesday
morning. Besides a few clouds AOA 10kft AGL along the Sierra,
mainly clear skies are expected through the TAF period.
&&


.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report
any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating
procedures.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Varian
AVIATION...Planz

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